Outgoing BOK governor urges structural reform for growth (KOR)

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Outgoing BOK governor urges structural reform for growth (KOR)

 
Rhee Chang-yong, the now ex-governor of the Bank of Korea, delivers his farewell address at a ceremony held at the central bank’s headquarters in Jung District, Seoul, on April 20. [NEWS1]

Rhee Chang-yong, the now ex-governor of the Bank of Korea, delivers his farewell address at a ceremony held at the central bank’s headquarters in Jung District, Seoul, on April 20. [NEWS1]

 
Rhee Chang-yong, the now former governor of the Bank of Korea (BOK), stepped down on Monday after completing his four-year term. During his tenure, the Korean economy faced a series of major shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine war, a domestic emergency martial law episode and the recent conflict in the Middle East. Reflecting on his term, Rhee said the past four years in their entirety went beyond what he had anticipated when he first stepped into the role. Even now, the economy remains in the middle of what is often described as a “three highs” crisis: high oil prices, high interest rates and high exchange rates.
 
But Rhee expressed greater concern about the lack of progress in structural reform than about these immediate challenges. Throughout his tenure, he released more than 20 reports urging reforms in education, labor and real estate to address low birthrates and slowing economic growth. In his farewell remarks, he warned that as the economic structure changes, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve stability and growth through monetary and fiscal policies alone. Rather than relying on short-term measures with only temporary effects, he argued, more fundamental solutions are needed, even if they require managing conflicts and adjusting entrenched interests.
 
His warnings regarding prolonged stagnation are not limited to the central bank. Both domestic and international institutions have raised similar concerns. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected that Korea’s real GDP per capita, which was overtaken by Taiwan last year, will continue to fall behind. According to the IMF, Korea’s per capita GDP is expected to reach $37,412 this year, compared to Taiwan’s projected $42,103. While Korea has remained in the $30,000 range for 12 consecutive years, Taiwan, which surpassed that threshold only in 2021, is expected to break through the $40,000 mark first. The gap between the two economies is also forecast to widen further and exceed $10,000 within five years.
 

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In the past, the BOK’s reports on structural reform have often sparked debate over specific proposals. Critics have also argued that the central bank should focus more on its core mandate of monetary policy and price stability. However, there is little disagreement with the broader diagnosis that escaping the trap of low growth will be difficult without structural reform.
 
Rhee’s repeated remarks underscore the urgency of the issue. It is notable that even the BOK, traditionally cautious about stepping beyond its remit, has felt compelled to advocate for structural change. Rhee’s calls for action serve as a reminder that policymakers cannot depend solely on short-term tools to address deeper economic challenges.
 
The government and political leaders would do well to heed his warning. Without sustained efforts to reform the underlying structure of the economy, the prospects for long-term growth will remain limited despite any temporary gains achieved through policy intervention.
 
 
 
“구조개혁 없인 성장 어렵다” 떠나는 한은 총재의 고언
 
이창용 한국은행 총재가 어제 4년 임기를 마치고 물러났다. 그의 임기 중 한국 경제는 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁, 비상계엄 사태, 그리고 최근의 중동전쟁까지 굵직한 국내외 사건의 파장에 휘말렸다. 이 총재도 “지난 4년은 우리가 예상했던 범위 안에서의 시간이 아니라 그 경계를 끊임없이 넘어야 했던 시간이었다”고 회고했다. 지금도 한국 경제는 고유가·고금리·고환율의 ‘3고(高) 위기’의 터널을 지나고 있다.
 
하지만 떠나는 이 총재가 당면한 이런 어려움보다 더 우려한 건 좀처럼 앞으로 나아가지 못하고 있는 한국 사회의 구조개혁이었다. 그는 임기 중 20여 차례의 보고서를 내고 저출생·저성장을 극복하기 위한 교육·노동·부동산 분야 등의 구조개혁 필요성을 촉구해 왔다. 어제 이임사에서도 “경제 구조가 변하면서 통화·재정 정책만으로는 우리 경제의 안정과 성장을 이뤄내기가 점점 어려워지고 있다”고 했다. 중앙은행의 통화정책이나 정부의 재정정책 등 반짝 효과에 그치는 단기 처방에만 기댈 게 아니라 고통이 따르더라도 이해관계와 갈등 조정에 나서 경제 체질을 개선시키는 근본 처방이 필요하다는 것이다.
 
사실 성장 정체가 만성질환처럼 한국 경제를 괴롭혀온 지는 오래 됐다. 어느새 잠재성장률은 2% 아래로 떨어졌고, 연간 성장률은 3년 연속 미국보다 뒤졌다. 한국의 1인당 실질 국내총생산(GDP)이 12년째 3만 달러대에 갇혀 있는 데 비해 대만은 올해 4만 달러를 넘어설 것으로 전망된다. 이렇게 저성장 국가가 된 것은 무엇보다 1990년대 말 외환위기 이후 30년간 제대로 된 구조개혁이 실행되지 않으면서 생산성이 혁신되지 않았기 때문이다.
 
그간 한은의 구조개혁 보고서가 나올 때마다 구체적 제안을 놓고는 이견이 나오기도 했고, 한은이 통화정책과 물가안정이란 본연의 역할에 더 신경써야 한다는 지적이 제기되기도 했다. 하지만 구조개혁 없이는 저성장의 함정을 탈출하기 어렵다는 현실 진단에는 이견을 달기 어렵다. 오죽하면 한은이 구조개혁을 주창하고 나섰겠느냐는 이 총재의 고언을 정부와 정치권은 새겨들어야 할 필요가 있다.


This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
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