Trump and the dawn of North Korea’s “Security with Russia, Economy with China” era

Home > Opinion > Columns

Trump and the dawn of North Korea’s “Security with Russia, Economy with China” era

Published: 04 Sep. 2025, 00:02

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

President Lee Jae Myung recently described North Korea as a “poor but fierce neighbor” during a visit to the United States. Pyongyang bristled at the remark, calling it a grave insult, yet the description is difficult to dispute.

North Korea is poor by most measures. According to a report released last month by the Bank of Korea, which used United Nations methodology to estimate growth, the North’s nominal gross national income in 2024 stood at about 44.4 trillion won. That amounts to one fifty-eighth of Korea’s 2,593.8 trillion won ($1.86 trillion). Per capita income in the North was 1.72 million won, roughly one twenty-ninth of Korea’s 50.12 million won.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and heads of foreign delegations arrive to attend a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second Sino-Japanese War, known in China as the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, and the end of World War II, at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 3, 2025. [EPA/YONHAP]

Even so, the North's economy expanded for the second consecutive year. Growth reached 3.7 percent in 2024, up from 3.1 percent in 2023. The central bank attributed the increase to strengthened military cooperation with Russia, citing growth in manufacturing, construction and mining. Manufacturing alone expanded by 7 percent, its fastest pace in 25 years, thanks largely to exports of arms to Russia for use in Ukraine. The war, though devastating for Europe, has offered Pyongyang a reprieve from years of economic stagnation.

Still, overall trade volume fell by 2.6 percent to $2.7 billion last year as both imports and exports declined. Analysts believe shrinking trade with China, the North's primary economic partner, explains much of the contraction.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attend a large-scale military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 3. [KYODO/YONHAP]

North Korea’s fierceness is equally apparent. On the eve of his trip to Beijing for China’s Victory Day commemorations, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited two military sites. On Sunday, he inspected an arms manufacturer that had just resumed operations, reviewing an automated missile production line. The next day, he toured a missile laboratory, encouraging the development of carbon fiber composites and a missile engine said to boost thrust by 40 percent. That engine is expected to power the forthcoming Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile. Experts believe the use of lightweight, durable carbon fiber indicates Russian assistance. Kim’s visits, and plans for a third troop dispatch to Russia, suggest security cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow is deepening.

Lee, in his Liberation Day speech, pledged that Korea would not undermine the North’s system, pursue unification by absorption or engage in hostile acts. But Pyongyang has not relented in its nuclear and missile threats against Korea, the United States or Japan.

Kim’s appearance at Tiananmen Gate this week underscored a new alignment: North Korea’s “security with Russia, economy with China” strategy. Military deployments to Russia may secure food and fuel, but sustaining the North’s fragile economy likely requires Chinese aid. With the ruling Workers’ Party planning elaborate celebrations for its 80th anniversary in October and its ninth party congress next year, Pyongyang’s need for Beijing’s backing is acute.

China has pulled back in recent years, curbing labor exchanges and even discouraging direct investment after Pyongyang tightened its embrace of Moscow. Kim's latest trip suggests Beijing is reconsidering, opening the way for new support.

Security ties with Russia appear more stable. Some have speculated that a postwar settlement in Ukraine could cool the relationship. But with U.S.-China rivalry sharpening, it is more plausible that North Korea will be seen as a strategic asset rather than a liability. Where once Beijing and Moscow treated Pyongyang as a nuclear burden, today they may regard it as a partner against Washington.

North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported on Sept. 2 that leader Kim Jong-un visited the Chemical Materials Institute under the Missile General Bureau on Sept. 1 to inspect production of carbon fiber composites and high-thrust missile engines. [SCREEN CAPTURE FROM KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY WEBSITE/YONHAP]

Lee has declared that Korea will no longer pursue the old “security with the U.S., economy with China” formula. His remark was striking, coming from a Democratic Party leader traditionally cautious about overtly pro-U.S. statements. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is charting its own balance, embracing Moscow for defense while relying on Beijing for economic survival. Unlike past decades, when North Korea sought advantage by exploiting Sino-Russian tensions, it is now hitching itself to their tightening alignment.

After his high-profile diplomacy in Beijing, Kim is expected to turn next to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shown interest in another meeting with the North Korean leader. Their encounter could come as early as October when Trump visits Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, for the APEC summit. Kim may see this as a moment of fortune when global powers court his regime. Yet history suggests such moments never last forever.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.