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Resetting the Korea-U.S. alliance: A strategic imperative for the Lee administration

Published: 25 Jul. 2025, 00:04

Shin Kak-soo

The author is the vice chairman of the Near Foundation and a former ambassador to Japan.

As the Lee Jae Myung administration passed its 50th day in office on July 23, a critical foreign policy question looms: How will the new government navigate and adapt the South Korea-U.S. alliance under the “America First” approach of U.S. President Donald Trump?

Trump’s worldview prioritizes unilateral interests, putting strain on traditional alliances. Still, South Korea must not retreat from this challenge but instead find ways to adapt and expand its strategic room within the framework of the alliance.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, left, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takehiro Funakoshi, center, and South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Park Yoon-joo, right, pose for a photo ahead of their trilateral talks in Tokyo on July 18. [YONHAP]

The most immediate issue is the looming deadline for a bilateral trade agreement. South Korea recorded a $55.7 billion trade surplus with the United States last year — larger than its overall global surplus. With such dependence on the U.S. market, Seoul must work to minimize fallout from Washington’s increasingly aggressive tariff policies.

But even more critical than trade is national security. Over the past six months, the Trump administration has focused on the war in Ukraine, which remains unresolved despite U.S. diplomatic efforts. In the Middle East, Iranian-backed forces have been weakened, and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have pushed the region into a temporary lull. With those fronts quieting, Washington is likely to intensify its focus on countering China — especially by reshaping its network of alliances in Asia.

This shift stems from the broader transformation of the global order. The liberal international system, upheld for decades by the power of the United States, is losing cohesion as Washington seeks to lessen its burdens. Meanwhile, revisionist powers including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are testing the system’s limits. Trump has argued that both allies and adversaries free-rode U.S. power, prompting calls for higher defense contributions, increased cost-sharing for U.S. troops stationed abroad, and broad tariffs even against allies.

Central to Washington’s strategic posture is the growing military challenge posed by China. The United States is responding to China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial strategy in the western Pacific and is exploring new operational concepts like Mosaic Warfare, which seeks to rapidly coordinate dispersed capabilities. At the recent South Korea-U.S. vice ministerial meeting in Tokyo on July 18, Washington reportedly requested that the bilateral defense treaty be extended to fit within its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. That request has raised concern in South Korea that the United States could downgrade the peninsula’s strategic priority while still drawing Seoul into its China-focused efforts.

South Korea must be prepared for potential shifts in U.S. troop deployments in East Asia, including those involving the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). Seoul should broaden its strategic outlook beyond the peninsula to the wider Indo-Pacific region. By contributing meaningfully to regional security — including maritime security, cybersecurity and multilateral cooperation with countries like Japan, Australia and New Zealand — South Korea can reinforce its importance in Washington’s regional planning.

Proactively participating in initiatives such as trilateral security cooperation with the United States and Japan, or responding to new frameworks proposed by Tokyo like the "One Theater, One Cooperative Effort" concept, would show that Seoul is a capable and committed ally.

Contingency planning for a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait is also vital. South Korea should work to prevent conflict, but if military aggression occurs in violation of the United Nations Charter, Seoul must be prepared to play a responsible role as a key Indo-Pacific state. Demonstrating this commitment would also reinforce South Korea’s own justification for U.S. military involvement in the event of a Korean Peninsula crisis. Furthermore, any Taiwan contingency could prompt a North Korean provocation, making uninterrupted U.S. extended deterrence and intelligence-sharing essential.

South Korea must also revisit the question of "strategic flexibility" — the possibility of USFK troops being deployed elsewhere. A 2006 joint statement between Seoul and Washington acknowledged the flexibility of the United States while also recognizing South Korea’s concerns about involvement in regional conflicts. However, Trump appears unconstrained by past agreements. In May, USFK commander Gen. Xavier Brunson described South Korea as a “fixed aircraft carrier” that could help overcome the “tyranny of distance,” suggesting potential USFK deployments beyond South Korea.

The Ministry of National Defense says on July 11 that South Korea, the United States and Japan conduct a joint aerial exercise over international waters south of Jeju Island. [NEWS1]

Though recent moves in the U.S. Congress have blocked plans to reduce troop levels in South Korea, growing U.S.-China competition makes future shifts plausible.

A historical comparison is instructive. In the late 19th century, Britain, recognizing its waning power, partnered with the United States in the Western Hemisphere and Japan in East Asia to maintain its global position. The United States today finds itself in a similar position — pressuring allies economically and militarily while still needing their support to confront China.

In that sense, the South Korea-U.S. alliance remains a strategic asset for Seoul. Managing it with foresight and aligning more deeply with like-minded partners such as Japan, Australia and Europe can help South Korea secure its interests amid global uncertainty. Rather than reacting passively, South Korea must actively shape the alliance to reflect both evolving regional dynamics and its own capabilities.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.