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'Kospi 7000' era? Chips drive bourse to fresh record as rally spurs bullish forecasts.

Published: 19 Feb. 2026, 18:24 Updated: 19 Feb. 2026, 19:23

A screen in Hana Bank's trading room in central Seoul shows the Kospi closing at 5,677.25 points, up 170.24 points, or 3.09 percent, from the previous trading session on Feb. 19. [NEWS1]

The Kospi surged to another record high on Thursday, the first day of trading after the Lunar New Year holiday, powered by a blistering rally in semiconductor stocks.

The benchmark index closed at 5,677.25, up 3.09 percent from the previous session, according to the Korea Exchange. Market heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose as high as 190,900 won ($130) during intraday trading to set a new record, while SK hynix touched the 910,000 won level.

The semiconductor surge has prompted increasingly bullish forecasts, with some analysts projecting that the Kospi could climb as high as 7,900 by next year. Hana Securities on Thursday raised its 12-month upper target for the index to 7,900 — up sharply from 5,600 just a month ago — citing significantly upgraded earnings outlooks for the two chipmakers.

The logo of Samsung Electronics is seen at the company's store in Seoul on April 15, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Lee Jae-man, an analyst at Hana Securities, noted that the semiconductor sector is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.7, compared with an average of 12.1 during past periods when chipmakers’ net profits rose for two consecutive years.

“Applying that PER to projected semiconductor net profit over the next year suggests there is 74.8 percent upside in stock prices,” Lee said. “Under this scenario, the Kospi’s long-term expected return would rise to 43.1 percent, with the index’s peak reaching 7,870.”

Other brokerages have also revised their Kospi targets upward, citing semiconductor strength. JPMorgan recently raised its target to 7,500 from 6,000, while NH Investment & Securities set 7,300, Yuanta Securities 7,100 and Citibank 7,000.

However, not all forecasts are optimistic. DB Securities adjusted its projected range to 4,300 to 5,700 from 4,500 to 5,500, lowering the bottom end for the first time this year. While the semiconductor rally leaves room for further gains, the firm warned that volatility has increased.

“As investment in AI facilities increases, employment could weaken and consumption decline, heightening economic uncertainty,” Kang Hyun-gi, an analyst at DB Securities, said. “That could dampen corporate bond issuance and slow AI investment."

The SK hynix logo appears in this illustration taken on Aug. 25, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

“If semiconductor prices rise, it could trigger ‘AI-flation,’ pushing up the cost of smartphones and laptops, making it more difficult for the United States to cut interest rates in the second half of the year,” Kang continued. “That, too, could weigh on corporate bond issuance.”

The Kospi has recently swung sharply between gains and losses. From Feb. 2 to Thursday, the index’s daily volatility — measured by the standard deviation of daily returns — rose to 3.52 percent, nearly four times last month’s 0.99 percent and the highest since March 2020, when market turmoil peaked during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Volatility has been amplified by concerns over AI profitability. With Samsung and SK hynix accounting for roughly 40 percent of the Kospi’s market capitalization, foreign investors have tended to sell on AI-related worries while retail investors buy on dips. External factors, including U.S. interest rate moves, are also testing the market’s resilience.

The tech-heavy Kosdaq closed up 4.94 percent at 1,160.71 the same day, with intraday gains triggering a "sidecar" trading curb, a halt to program trading activated when certain market indexes fluctuate beyond a designated threshold.

The local currency depreciated 0.6 won from the previous session to trade at 1,445.5 won against the greenback at 3:30 p.m.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY JANG SEO-YUN [[email protected]]