Blue House pulls Hormuz deployment from NSC agenda as political pressure mounts

The government has decided to drop discussions of a military deployment to the Strait of Hormuz from the agenda of a National Security Council (NSC) standing committee meeting later this week, according to sources on Tuesday.

Officials had initially considered using the meeting slated for Thursday to discuss whether to seek National Assembly approval for a deployment.

The Korean government had been accelerating its review with a possible November deployment in mind. Falling approval ratings for President Lee Jae Myung and growing opposition within the ruling bloc, however, have put the brakes on that push.

The government had been reviewing what military assets Korea could send, what missions they could perform and what approval from the National Assembly would look like. The review followed the return of a fact-finding team from the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.

Officials had even considered discussing at Thursday's meeting whether to submit a deployment motion to the National Assembly after a working-level coordination meeting on Tuesday.

But the worsening political climate at home has strengthened calls for the government to take a step back.

“It looks like we have no choice but to push back the timeline [on discussions of potential deployment],” one ruling bloc source said. “It is also unclear where the deployment discussions will ultimately lead.”

For some within the ruling bloc, however, slowing the process may not be enough.

“If public opinion is this unfavorable, shouldn’t every possibility be on the table, including not deploying at all?” another source said.

The political sensitivity surrounding a possible deployment has also made leaks about the deliberations a cause for concern for the government. Details about the NSC meeting schedule and its potential agenda became public before the government had even moved into a full-fledged review of a deployment.

The leaks fed the impression that sending Korean forces was already a done deal. The Blue House subsequently conducted an intensive inspection of relevant ministries to determine how the information had gotten out.

Some government officials had envisioned submitting a deployment motion to the National Assembly in September and sending Korean personnel or military assets to the region around November, when the U.S. midterm elections are scheduled to take place.

The United States has recently stressed the urgency of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and called on allies, including Korea, to contribute quickly. Some within the Korean government believed that if Seoul was going to contribute anyway, an early response could help manage relations with Washington.

There were also hopes among stakeholders that a contribution in Hormuz could provide leverage in negotiations with the United States at a time when trade and security issues are increasingly intertwined.

But rapidly deteriorating public opinion at home has raised the political stakes.

President Lee’s approval rating fell to 33.8 percent in a Realmeter survey released on Monday, its lowest level since he took office in June of last year. A Gallup Korea poll released on Friday found that 55 percent of respondents opposed sending Korean forces to the Strait of Hormuz. The backlash was even stronger within the ruling Democratic Party’s (DP) own base, with 69 percent opposing a deployment.

“Sending forces is not the only option,” DP Rep. Jin Sung-joon, chair of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee, said in a radio interview on Monday. “There could be other ways to contribute.”

“There is even less justification for this than there was for the Iraq War,” DP Rep. Song Young-gil said on Sept. 9.

“This is a war with no just cause, and we must not allow ourselves to get dragged into it,” Fellow DP Rep. Kim Byung-joo said the same day.

Repeated warnings from Iran have added another complication.

“Dangerous choices come with consequences,” Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs, wrote in Korean in an X post on Sept. 7.

Korea’s minister of foreign affairs, Cho Hyun, reiterated that Seoul had made no decision on a possible deployment to the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday.

The United States, meanwhile, continues to call for a visible contribution from Korea. Seoul now faces the difficult task of responding to Washington’s demands without further inflaming opposition at home or provoking backlash from Iran.

“The view that we should move as quickly as possible has not completely changed, but we can no longer ignore the situation at home,” a source familiar with Korea-U.S. relations said. “We need to carefully weigh our options and find an approach that fits our circumstances and serves our interests.”

BY YOON JI-WON [[email protected]]