'Why has this fallen so much?'

Moon Jung-hoon

The author is a professor of agricultural economics and rural development at Seoul National University and director of the Food Business Lab. 

“Why has this fallen so much?”

The question escaped me during a seminar at Seoul National University's Food Business Lab as I examined findings presented by graduate students. We had been investigating how meat consumption was changing amid a growing preference for eating fewer carbohydrates and more protein.

Our analysis drew on grocery shopping records compiled by the Rural Development Administration from a panel of 1,247 households, comprising 3,309 people, in the Seoul metropolitan area. The records show what ingredients households purchase for consumption at home and in what quantities.

After adjusting for inflation, we found that average household spending on fresh beef in real terms fell 11.9 percent in 2025 compared with the preceding two years. Purchase frequency declined 10.5 percent. For fresh pork, real spending fell 7.9 percent and purchase frequency 6.7 percent. Fresh chicken showed corresponding declines of 6.8 percent and 5.4 percent.

Eggs moved in the opposite direction. Average inflation-adjusted household spending on fresh eggs rose 10 percent, underscoring their growing importance as a protein source in Korean diets.

Yet the contradiction remained. If interest in protein consumption was increasing, why were households buying less meat overall?

We considered another possibility. Because the administration's panel primarily records groceries purchased for home consumption, perhaps Koreans were eating less meat at home but more when dining out.

To investigate, we examined Food Diary data from research company Opensurvey. Its panel, sampled to reflect population demographics, records what participants actually eat, including meals at home, restaurant visits and food deliveries. It therefore provides a broader picture of dietary behavior.

The findings were unexpected. Consumption frequency for meat dishes was generally declining even at restaurants. Some dishes, including boiled pork and gukbap, a rice-and-soup dish, gained ground, but the overall direction was downward.

Grilled pork dishes, including samgyeopsal, or pork belly, stood out. Comparing the two years from June 2023 through May 2025 with the following year, we found that consumption occasions fell 12.1 percent overall and 11.7 percent when dining out.

Seasoned pork dishes also declined, by 1.7 percent overall and 6.9 percent at restaurants. Foods long enjoyed by Koreans were losing ground both at home and outside it. Grilled beef dishes showed a similar downward trend in restaurant consumption.

Then another question occurred to me: Was it only meat consumption that was declining, or were people eating less food generally?

At the following week's seminar, the results were striking. Meat was not alone. People were eating fewer meals and serving fewer side dishes with each meal.

According to Opensurvey's Food Diary data, the average annual number of meals per person fell by 24.8, while the total number of recorded food consumption occasions, including side dishes, dropped by 130.

The frequency of eating breakfast declined 8.4 percent, lunch 4.4 percent, dinner 6.4 percent and late-night meals 11.3 percent. Koreans were not simply eating less often. Their tables were becoming less elaborate.

These data sets measure different aspects of eating, so their results should not be treated as identical. Together, however, they suggest a shift extending well beyond the purchase of any particular kind of meat.

Could food consumption, which we might assume had steadily expanded alongside economic growth, now be entering a period of contraction?

We cannot yet identify the principal cause. Perhaps the spread of wellness lifestyles, and the desire to become healthier and look better, is encouraging people to consume less food.

Perhaps wider use of GLP-1 medications such as Wegovy and Mounjaro is changing appetites. Increased spending on those treatments might also be crowding out other consumption.

Or perhaps the growing prevalence of eating alone means fewer opportunities to share meals, ultimately reducing overall food intake. The available evidence does not yet tell us which explanation carries the greatest weight.

Reducing excessive food consumption can certainly benefit health. But these changes also present a challenge for the food industry and the restaurant sector, where many businesses are independently owned.

What began as a question about declining meat purchases has therefore become a much broader question about how Koreans eat. Understanding that shift will matter not only to food producers and restaurants but also to anyone trying to anticipate the next transformation of the country's food economy.