Worries grow over where housing prices will head after the election

Chang Se-jeong

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo. 

Opinion polls forecasting the outcome of the June 3 local elections have only deepened voter confusion. Approval ratings vary so widely among polling firms that many voters struggle to trust the results. Political parties selectively interpret surveys to favor their own candidates, further muddying public opinion. Korea’s election law, which prohibits the publication of polls beginning six days before voting day, repeatedly creates the side effects of “blind elections.” Controversies over possible distortions caused by the gap between early voting and Election Day voting add to the problem. Reform of these outdated election rules should come first.

In Yeouido, political insiders are closely watching independent races that could determine the political futures of Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae and People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok. The outcomes involving Kim Kwan-young, the independent candidate for North Jeolla governor, and Han Dong-hoon, the independent candidate in Busan’s Buk-gap district, have attracted particular attention.

Yet the true bellwether of this election is the Seoul mayoral race. The symbolic importance of the Seoul mayoralty in local government is enormous. Another reason the contest matters is its implications for housing policy. Depending on which party prevails, policy direction may shift, influencing the real estate market. Movements in Seoul’s housing market are tied directly to some of Korea’s most persistent challenges, including widening wealth inequality, despair among young people and regional decline.

In such circumstances, candidates should be competing vigorously over which housing policies offer the better solution. Instead, voters have been largely denied the opportunity to compare competing visions side by side.

The problem stems from the reluctance of a candidate believed to hold a polling advantage to participate in debates. Under current election law, presidential candidates must take part in at least three televised debates, while candidates for the National Assembly and local governments are required to participate in only one. Candidates who show confidence and respect voters’ right to make informed choices would likely earn greater public support. Instead, political caution has prevailed.

The sole Seoul mayoral debate was held late at night on the eve of early voting. Minor candidates with little apparent chance of winning also participated, reducing the speaking time available to the leading candidates from the two major parties. Even then, exchanges were dominated by mutual attacks. Housing policies received only limited attention, mostly focused on supply pledges. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon promised 310,000 new housing units by 2031, while his challenger Jung Won-oh pledged 300,000 units by 2030. It is difficult to feel confident that such a discussion can calm an overheated market.

For months, election politics pushed housing policy, one of the most important issues affecting livelihoods, off the national agenda. On May 26, President Lee Jae Myung asked during a Cabinet meeting whether measures were being prepared to address rising housing prices. Three days later, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced emergency steps, including plans to provide 90,000 public rental housing units. Yet the measures appear insufficient to counter a market where home prices, jeonse (lump-sum deposit) deposits and monthly rents are rising simultaneously.

President Lee said in January that while no government can defeat the market, no market can defeat the government. He also expressed confidence that normalizing the housing market would be easier than lifting the Kospi to 5,000 or restoring damaged streams. Yet over the past year, apartment prices in Seoul have continued climbing despite repeated efforts to slow them.

Concerns about the post-election housing market extend beyond government policy. The Democratic Party’s passage of the "Yellow Envelope" bill, despite opposition from the business community, loosened conditions surrounding labor disputes. Against that backdrop, the recent Samsung Electronics bonus dispute has generated new concerns. Following last year’s SK hynix labor settlement, the large performance bonuses secured by Samsung Electronics workers are expected to flow into real estate markets, potentially adding further pressure on housing prices.

The benchmark stock index has surpassed 8,000 for the first time, yet gains remain uneven across individual stocks. If profits from equities increasingly flow into apartment purchases, questions arise over whether stock market growth is ultimately fueling housing inflation. Since his presidential campaign, Lee has repeatedly promised not to use taxes as the primary tool for controlling housing prices. If prices continue to rise after the election, however, will his administration be able to resist the temptation to revisit the tax-based approaches employed under the Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in governments? That uncertainty helps explain why concerns about the post-election market are becoming increasingly common.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.