A digital billboard displays an image of Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi alongside an Arabic message reading “Escalation will be met with escalation” on a street in Sana'a, Yemen, on Oct. 11. Yemen's Houthis have warned airlines against using Saudi airports following a missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudia Arabia, on Oct. 10 that killed 12 people, including four Saudi nationals and eight foreign nationals, and forced the suspension of airport operations, according to Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea.EPA/YONHAP
Park Hyun-do
The author is a professorof religious studies at Sogang University.
The Middle East has long been described as “burning.” But the conflicts unfolding today demand an even more alarming description. The Iran war, which began on Feb. 28, has spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz toward Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With Ethiopia and Eritrea also clashing, the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea risk becoming one interconnected theater of regional warfare.
Landlocked Ethiopia seeks access to the Red Sea and thus wants control of Eritrea, which stands in its way. Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) back Ethiopia.
Eritrea, meanwhile, has support from Egypt, Sudan and Somalia. Egypt opposes Ethiopia’s ambitions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb and sees the country as threatening Cairo’s own interests. The two countries are already at odds over Ethiopia’s construction of Africa’s largest dam on the upper Nile. Somalia, meanwhile, resents Israeli and UAE support for Somaliland, which seeks independence. Israel recognizes Somaliland, and the UAE has established military and logistics facilities at Somaliland’s port of Berbera.
These overlapping rivalries mean that a confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could extend far beyond their borders. Control of ports, shipping routes and access to the Red Sea has become a strategic concern for several governments, with each pursuing its own security interests. Their competing ambitions could further complicate efforts to contain the conflict.
In Yemen, Houthi rebels are fighting Saudi-backed government forces near Bab el-Mandeb. Although the Houthis follow Zaydism rather than Iran’s Twelver Shi’ism, they share Tehran’s opposition to the United States and Israel and support for Palestinian liberation. They constitute the southern flank of the Shiite resistance movement.
After the Houthis captured Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014, Saudi Arabia feared that Iran would establish a permanent foothold there. Riyadh launched airstrikes in March 2015 but failed to defeat the rebels and eventually agreed to a truce in March 2022.
Fighting intensified after Saudi Arabia struck the runway at the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport on July 13. The Houthis then attacked Saudi Aramco oil facilities on July 25 and several more targets on Sept. 8, injuring about 70 people.
Saudi Arabia responded with extensive airstrikes under an operation called “Dawn of Yemen,” supporting government ground troops and retaking strategic Red Sea areas. The Houthis have retaliated against Saudi airports, refineries and military bases.
The Houthis have threatened attacks across Saudi Arabia, excluding the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina, partly to assist Iran against U.S. military and economic pressure. Tehran has warned for two months that the conflict would grow unless Washington ended its counterblockade of Iranian tankers passing through Hormuz and halted its offensive.
Iran specialist Vali Nasr warned that Houthi strikes against Saudi oil facilities and airports could expand the war. Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting, he argued, would make the Yemen-Saudi conflict a central front, bringing the Middle East closer to a much larger regional war. Houthi control of coastal territory near the Gulf of Aden would worsen the conflict.
Facing congressional midterm elections on Nov. 3, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged not to attack Iran before voting day, seeking to contain soaring oil prices. Average U.S. gasoline prices exceed $4 per gallon, and diesel prices have surpassed $6.
Although candidates have won elections with gas above $4 a gallon, voters increasingly blame Trump for expensive fuel. Another U.S. attack could provoke Iranian retaliation and drive prices higher. If Tehran keeps crude between $90 and $120 per barrel, the Republicans could face greater electoral difficulties.
Following public anger over inflation, Trump recently eased some sanctions on Russia and reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin for substantial diesel supplies. The arrangement envisages 4.8 million metric tons and temporarily permits Russian diesel sales and imports until April 7, 2027.
Even that quantity represents only around nine days of U.S. consumption or 1.24 days of global demand. Its limited scale underscores the severity of the fuel shortage that prompted Trump to relax sanctions.
Putin reportedly also conveyed Iran’s final proposal for ending the war — coordinated with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian — to Trump. Yet Russia should not automatically be expected to secure peace.
Iran distrusts Pakistan, an earlier mediator. Tehran believes that Pakistan’s powerful military leader, Asim Munir, cultivated close ties with Trump to consolidate his authority. Pakistan is also helping Saudi Arabia attack the Houthis.
Repeated landings of Iranian aircraft in Doha suggest that Qatar may be undertaking some mediation. But Qatar, too, appears unlikely to end the conflict alone.
China has likewise played a smaller diplomatic role than anticipated. Arab governments have attempted to persuade Beijing to be more involved, but China is unlikely to align itself with Iran on the nuclear issue.
The familiar image of a burning Middle East now extends to its surrounding seas. Developments across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea demand continued attention as interconnected conflicts threaten to engulf the region.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
