Can Latin America’s rightward tide topple even Brazil’s Lula?

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

The “blue tide” of right-wing victories sweeping Latin America since last year now threatens even Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leading figure of the region’s left. In the Oct. 4 first round election, Liberal Party candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, won 47.03 percent of the vote against Lula’s 45.16 percent. Polls also favor Bolsonaro ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff. If Brazil follows Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Peru, Mexico would remain among the few major left-governed countries in the region.

A Friday AtlasIntel survey put Bolsonaro at 51.1 percent and Lula at 45.7 percent, a lead beyond the margin of error. The third-place first-round candidate has endorsed Bolsonaro, signaling conservative consolidation. Since Brazil’s democratization in 1989, no first-round winner has lost a runoff. Yet Lula, now 80, remains defiant. “I still have 17 days to work for more votes,” he said on Thursday.

Lula’s setback in his bid for a fourth presidential term resembles the defeats of leftist governments elsewhere. Analysts point to deteriorating public finances, inflation and worsening security. The International Monetary Fund projects government debt will reach 98 percent of GDP by year’s end.

In September, a month before voting, Lula increased payments under Bolsa Familia, the poverty relief program introduced during his first administration, by 15 percent. Meanwhile, Brazil’s central bank, led by Lula allies, cut its benchmark interest rate five consecutive times despite inflationary pressure. The measures failed to reassure households struggling with prices.

September consumer prices rose 4.58 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations, according to Brazil’s statistics agency. Residential electricity, food and gasoline were particularly important drivers. Leandro Consentino, a political scientist at São Paulo’s Insper institute, described the result as a harsh electoral judgment on Lula’s administration.

Brazil’s persistent fiscal deficits have also constrained its response to organized crime. Criminal cartels operate more than 1,500 airstrips across the Amazon basin, facilitating illicit trafficking in drugs, gold and weapons across neighboring countries. Authorities also struggle to police illegal trade along Brazil’s roughly 8,000-kilometer (4,970-mile) coastline.

The Trump administration designated two major Brazilian cartels, Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho, as terrorist organizations. Other right-leaning Latin American governments have embraced Washington’s anticartel campaign.

Voter dissatisfaction has revived the Bolsonaro family’s fortunes. Flavio, born in 1981, is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years and three months for plotting a coup and remains under house arrest. His father’s political influence helped propel him from the Senate into the presidential race. His stepmother, uncle and brothers also hold congressional seats. Flavio has promised to pardon his father and others convicted alongside him immediately if elected.

His victory would also offer a political boost to U.S. President Donald Trump before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Jair Bolsonaro, like Argentine President Javier Milei, is a prominent Trump ally. After Bolsonaro lost the 2022 presidential election, Trump immediately alleged electoral fraud.

When Brazilian courts convicted Bolsonaro over the coup plot last year, Trump announced retaliatory tariffs of 50 percent and sanctions against certain Supreme Court justices. In an open letter to Lula, Trump called the proceedings a “witch hunt” that must stop immediately, arguing that elections were the only legitimate forum for judgment.

Milei, dubbed the “Trump of South America,” also intervened unusually openly in Brazil’s campaign. Attending Flavio Bolsonaro’s presidential launch event in July, he denounced Lula as corrupt, a thief and “socialist trash.” Brazil recalled its ambassador to Argentina, and diplomatic relations were subsequently downgraded to the chargé d’affaires level.

Lula’s camp counterattacked by calling Trump’s tariffs “TariFlavio,” linking them directly to his challenger. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly last month, Lula challenged Washington’s Western Hemisphere strategy, which treats the Americas, Greenland and surrounding territories as central to U.S. security and economic interests.

“We are nobody’s backyard,” Lula declared, warning that foreign interference in elections was again becoming visible. On the campaign trail, he said Brazil would not tolerate politicians who waved its flag by day but sold themselves to the United States at night. Nevertheless, despite a fragmented conservative field, Lula suffered an unexpected first-round defeat.

For Lula, the stakes extend beyond the office. His approach has sought to preserve Brazil’s freedom to negotiate with both major powers rather than align automatically with either. A Bolsonaro presidency, by contrast, could bring Brasília closer to Washington and its regional conservative partners. The election therefore tests not only Brazil’s economic frustrations but the direction of its foreign policy.

The runoff now presents two sharply different outcomes: the Bolsonaro family’s return, completing Latin America’s rightward shift, or a fourth term for Lula, who has long pursued strategic autonomy between Washington and Beijing. Beyond Brazil’s domestic future, the result could substantially shape the intensifying competition between the United States and China. That makes the Oct. 25 vote a contest watched far beyond Latin America.