A U.S.-China summit that did not throw the world into turmoil

Michael Green

The author is the CEO of the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and the Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

U.S. President Trump’s style of diplomacy is obviously unique, and the White House is not currently asking me –or any previous official—for advice on summitry with China. But I have prepared a number of U.S.-China summits. Here is what I would have advised for his State Visit with Xi Jinping in Washington on Sunday.

To set the context — I think it is good to do summits with China. U.S.-China relations cannot be managed at the bureaucratic level. Even the secretary of state has difficulty penetrating the Chinese system to send clear messages to the leadership, especially with Xi. So good on President Trump for taking his personal diplomacy with Xi seriously.

However, I would not have advised that the president approach that personal diplomacy with Xi quite so enthusiastically. By offering a state visit, going to the airport to greet Xi and lavishing praise on the Chinese leader to the public, Trump looked like he was the supplicant and the United States the weaker power. Trump really seemed fixated on impressing Xi above all others.

Ultimately, however, Trump’s adoration of Xi probably created less damage and consternation than would have been the case had Presidents Biden, Obama or Bush done the same thing. Beijing knows that Trump could change his mind at any moment despite current claims of friendship. This is probably why U.S. allies are not panicking that the summit will establish a new U.S.-China “Group of 2.” Nor will Trump pay the kind of domestic political price for his embrace of Xi that his predecessors would have. Polls show that the U.S. public is far more focused on cost of living and feels relatively less threatened by China.

For his part, Xi will seize what advantage he can from the optics even if he does not believe the summit is the beginning of a “G2.” By wearing a Mao jacket and calling on Trump to put “words into action,” he signaled to Chinese audiences that he will never compromise. But being feted in Washington also allows him to signal to U.S. allies and especially the people on Taiwan that the United States is not reliable.

Setting aside the optics, I would definitely have advised pressing hard on difficult issues in the U.S.-China relationship. Historically, the White House has traded protocol (and a state dinner is a big gift) for concrete progress on policy issues.

First, I would have urged the president to raise China’s support for Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Beijing’s policies are making these dangerous states even more dangerous for the rest of us. Trump really should have been rallying U.S. allies to counter this alignment of authoritarian states well before meeting Xi, but at a minimum one can only hope he pressed the issue in the meeting.

Second, I would have suggested that the president convey to Xi the U.S. commitment to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. Taiwan is now the fourth-largest trading partner of the United States and the Chinese military cordon around Taiwan is tightening. Trump did some damage by saying after his last meeting with Xi that he considered Taiwan arms sales a negotiating tool. This violated all precedent and did damage to the confidence of Taiwan.

Third, the president had to raise AI with Xi. I would have advised him that China views AI (or “SI” as the president now calls it) very differently from the United States. The CEO of Anthropic was joined by other leaders of frontier companies in calling for government regulation of AI to ensure that general intelligence models do not break out and attack systems we need to function as societies. China’s companies are not on the frontier building the most advanced models but are instead excelling at smaller models and diffusion. Their perspective is that the work they do is not an existential threat to humanity. They have no interest in slowing down their work. That China appears to have agreed to dialogue is good, though we are very far from reaching a consensus on AI. But good news if there is some dialogue at least.

Finally, I would have advised movement on economic issues, and here the summit may have produced some modest progress, but only modest. We will not know if China has committed to market opening until the next summit in China in November — and keeping us guessing is exactly what Xi wants.

The optics of the summit probably gave Xi some camouflage for the real problems he is having at home. The Chinese economy is now entering what observers call the “K” economy where the technology and manufacturing sector is growing while the other leg — including real estate, debt, and consumption — is dragging the Chinese economy in a negative direction. Few experts think any longer that China is destined to surpass the U.S. GDP. Trump has his own problems with the war with Iran and near-certain defeat in the November midterm elections. But structurally, the United States is not the weaker party, and somehow Trump failed to convey that.