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As Trump ups pressure on allies, Seoul risks abandonment or entanglement

Published: 03 May. 2026, 18:54 Updated: 03 May. 2026, 19:49

President Donald Trump speaks to journalists before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on May 2 in Palm Beach, Florida. [GETTY IMAGES/YONHAP]

The White House is accelerating its shift toward “strategic flexibility” in deploying military assets overseas, formalizing plans to scale down U.S. troop levels in Germany while tightening pressure on allies — including Korea.

As Washington is boxing in longstanding partners by warning that engagement with Iran could trigger sanctions while pressing ahead with a U.S.-led coalition to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Seoul now faces a double bind where it has to assess the implications of the Iran war on U.S. forces in Korea, while deciding its own role in the Iran war.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that the United States is “cutting a lot further than 5,000” troops in Germany on Saturday, according to The Associated Press.

Trump’s remarks came a day after the Pentagon officially announced that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered the withdrawal of roughly 5,000 troops from Berlin on Friday. The 5,000 troops account for approximately 14 percent of the current 36,000 U.S. service members in Germany.

Trump’s remarks reaffirmed Washington’s directive to pursue a broader drawdown of U.S. forces overseas.

The partial withdrawal came after a “thorough review of the Department’s force posture in Europe and is in recognition of theater requirements and conditions on the ground,” according to Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell on Friday.

Soldiers with the U.S. 1st Battalion, 82nd Artillery Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division communicate through radio during live fire training on April 29 in Fort Hood, Texas. [GETTY IMAGES/YONHAP]

However, observers say that an immediate parallel reduction on the Korean Peninsula seems unlikely, given that countering China is Washington’s top priority and that the United States is unlikely to risk destabilizing its defense posture there.

Still, the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, released earlier this year, hinted at a sharper division between conventional defense and nuclear roles in the Korea-U.S. alliance, raising the prospect that U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) could be used beyond the Peninsula.

“The U.S. troop reduction in Germany is a signal flare for a more flexible strategy in the wake of the war in the Middle East,” said Park Ihn-hwi, dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Ewha Womans University. “It could trigger operational changes in USFK and heighten concerns about a potential void in defense posture."

A Korean Defense Ministry official said Seoul is “closely monitoring potential changes to global U.S. force posture.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, center, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio attend a press conference at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

At the same time, Washington’s proposed coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — known as the Maritime Freedom Construct — is deepening Seoul’s dilemma. The idea has been delivered to U.S. embassies in allied nations.

During an April 17 summit, led by Britain and France, to discuss the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Korean government expressed its willingness to make a “substantive contribution."

Seoul has since held to a cautious line that it is “reviewing options," but if a U.S.-led coalition takes shape and overlaps with those of London and Paris, Seoul could face more pressure to commit more decisively, and its room to maneuver could narrow.

On the other hand, on Friday, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control under the Treasury Department warned that any payments to Iran — or even requests for nonaggression assurances tied to safe passage — could trigger sanctions. The warning extends beyond cash to digital assets and informal financial arrangements, and even to charitable donations to entities such as the Iranian Red Crescent Society or Iranian embassy accounts.

Diplomats voice concerns that the move could jeopardize efforts to ensure the safety of Korean vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

“The advisory is intended to cut off funds flowing into Iran,” a Korean government source said. “Given its broad scope, clarifying the exact facts is an urgent priority.

Combat aircraft from a NATO country stand in front of a hangar during a fighter plane maneuver exercise at the U.S. military's Ramstein Air Base, near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, on June 6, 2024. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

That sensitivity may explain why Seoul stressed that a recent call between Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Saturday took place “at the request of the Iranian side.”

This dynamic reflects what U.S. political scientist Glenn Snyder termed the “security dilemma in alliance politics” in World Politics in 1984 — the dual risks of "abandonment," including U.S. troop withdrawals, and "entanglement" in conflicts driven by Washington.

“The Iran war offers a preview of the security dilemma that Korea could face,” said Kim Jae-chun, a political scientist at the Graduate School of International Studies from Sogang University. “This dilemma could arise at any moment in nearby contingencies such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait."

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY SHIM SEOK-YONG [[email protected]]