Number of schools graduating fewer than 10 students to exceed 2,000 by 2030, data shows
Published: 19 Feb. 2026, 15:05
Updated: 20 Feb. 2026, 00:26
![Prospective first graders look around a classroom during a preliminary student orientation for the 2026 academic year at an elementary school in Yeonje District, Busan, on Jan. 6. [NEWS1]](https://koreaseafood.online/data/photo/2026/02/20/286b258e-4510-495c-9239-a9a758f3a443.jpg)
Prospective first graders look around a classroom during a preliminary student orientation for the 2026 academic year at an elementary school in Yeonje District, Busan, on Jan. 6. [NEWS1]
The number of schools graduating fewer than 10 students will exceed 2,000 within four years as the decline in the school-age population accelerates, government data showed.
An analysis of government data and mid-term student placement plans submitted by provincial and metropolitan education offices showed that 1,863 elementary, middle and high schools have 10 or fewer graduates this year, according to the office of Rep. Jin Sun-mee of the Democratic Party, which released the findings on Thursday.
The number is projected to rise to 1,917 in 2027 and 1,994 in 2028, reaching 2,026 by 2030.
Elementary schools make up the largest share of schools with 10 or fewer graduates. This year, 1,469 elementary schools — 78.8 percent of all schools with 10 or fewer graduates — fall into the category. The figure is expected to increase to 1,584 by 2030.
Middle schools are also expected to see an increase in the number of schools with small graduating classes, with the number rising 16.5 percent from 358 this year to 417 in 2030.
The number of small schools is also rising when measured by new student admissions. A total of 2,196 schools have 10 or fewer incoming students this year, and projections show the number edging up to 2,257 by 2030.
The number of elementary schools with 10 or fewer new students is forecast to dip slightly from 1,764 to 1,739 over the same period, while middle schools are expected to climb sharply from 399 to 485, reflecting how declining elementary enrollment feeds into middle schools with a lag.
![Students at a middle school in Changwon, South Gyeongsang, study in their classroom on Sept. 4, 2025. [YONHAP]](https://koreaseafood.online/data/photo/2026/02/20/4ad24513-d1da-4ab7-93c7-d4620c07e6ac.jpg)
Students at a middle school in Changwon, South Gyeongsang, study in their classroom on Sept. 4, 2025. [YONHAP]
The trend follows a steep fall in the school-age population. Ministry of Education estimates show that 298,178 students entered first grade this year, marking the first time the number has fallen below 300,000.
That compares with 401,752 in 2023, a drop of 25.8 percent in three years.
The total number of students enrolled in elementary, middle and high schools fell to 4,836,890 this year, slipping below 5 million.
School closures are accelerating as enrollment shrinks. Data from the office of Rep. Park Sung-hoon of the People Power Party show that 153 elementary, middle and high schools closed through mergers or consolidations between 2021 and 2025.
Fifty-one schools shut down last year alone, exceeding the five-year annual average of about 30. By province, South Jeolla and Gangwon recorded the highest number of closures at 26 each, followed by North Jeolla with 21 and South Chungcheong with 17.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY LEE HOO-YEON [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
To write comments, please log in to one of the accounts.
Standards Board Policy (0/250자)