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Oh-Chong matchup for Seoul mayoral race would be tight, survey suggests

Published: 01 Jan. 2026, 16:17 Updated: 02 Jan. 2026, 10:47

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, left, and Seongdong District Mayor Chong Won-o are mentioned as potential candidates in the Seoul mayoral race for the upcoming local elections. [JOONGANG ILBO]

With five months to go until the June 3 local elections, voter sentiment in Seoul remains murky.

A survey, conducted by polling firm Kstat Research, commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo, found that a hypothetical Seoul mayoral matchup between incumbent Oh Se-hoon of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and Seongdong District chief Chong Won-o of the liberal Democratic Party (DP) would be a tight race.

The telephone interview survey was conducted from Sunday to Tuesday. A total of 800 Seoul residents aged 18 or older took part in the survey. Oh led Chong by a slim margin of 37 percent to 34 percent in a two-way matchup, within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, according to the survey.

Respondents who said they supported no candidate accounted for 24 percent, while 3 percent said they did not know or declined to answer. Another 2 percent named other figures.

While the overall race in Seoul was extremely close, preferences differed sharply when the city was divided into four regions. In the Gangnam belt, which includes the Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa and Gangdong districts, Oh led with 44 percent support, compared to 24 percent for Chong.

In contrast, Chong held an advantage in northeastern districts, including Seongdong, his political base, as well as Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, Gwangjin, Dongdaemun, Seongbuk and Jungnang. In those areas, Chong garnered 40 percent support, compared to 33 percent for Oh.

Generational divides were also evident. Voters in their 20s and 30s, as well as those aged 60 and older, favored Oh, while voters in their 40s and 50s leaned toward Chong. Oh led among voters in their 20s with 37 percent to Chong’s 28 percent, in their 30s with 38 percent to 25 percent, in their 60s with 42 percent to 29 percent, and among those aged 70 or older with 61 percent to 15 percent.

[KSTAT RESEARCH]

Chong dominated among voters in their 40s with 49 percent support compared to Oh’s 28 percent, and among those in their 50s with 55 percent to 21 percent.

Interest in the local elections also influenced preferences. Among respondents who said they were interested in the elections, Chong led slightly with 40 percent support to Oh’s 38 percent. Among those who said they were not interested, Oh led with 35 percent, while Chong drew just 16 percent. The results suggest that politically engaged voters show relatively stronger support for Chong, who is seen as a newer figure on the citywide stage.

Turnout among these groups could emerge as a key variable. Among centrist voters, Chong led Oh by 38 percent to 32 percent, suggesting swing voters were also up for grabs.

Negative opinions on Oh’s city administration outnumbered positive ones. Forty-five percent of respondents viewed his performance favorably, while 50 percent rated it negatively. Opposition was also strong to the Jongmyo-Sewoon redevelopment project, one of Oh’s flagship initiatives for the new year and a proposal strongly opposed by the opposition bloc. Fifty-eight percent opposed the project, compared to 35 percent who supported it.

“Negative views of the proposed Hangang Bus project and controversy over what critics described as an inadequate city response to heavy snowfall on Dec. 4 last year appear to have weighed on assessments of Oh’s administration,” said Kim Sung-soo, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hanyang University.

[KSTAT RESEARCH]

“Chong benefited from positive evaluations of his performance as Seongdong district head,” said Jang Han-ik, chief researcher at Kstat Research, noting that he performed well despite being a first-time mayoral contender.

Still, Chong’s lack of experience on the national political stage could become a liability in a general election campaign, Jang said, adding that potential risk factors could surface once full-scale scrutiny begins.

Some analysts noted that Oh’s relatively strong showing comes despite an overall political environment unfavorable to the conservative bloc, given party support levels. In Seoul, support for the DP stood at 36 percent, compared to 30 percent for the PPP. The minor liberal Rebuilding Korea Party garnered 5 percent, followed by the minor conservative Reform Party at 4 percent.

On the local elections more broadly, 46 percent of respondents said the ruling party should be given more support, compared to 43 percent who said the opposition should be strengthened.

In alternative matchups, Oh led DP Rep. Park Ju-min by 40 percent to 31 percent, outside the margin of error. If the PPP were to nominate Rep. Na Kyung-won, Chong led Na by 38 percent to 31 percent. A matchup between Na and Park showed an even closer race, with Na at 32 percent and Park at 33 percent.

N Seoul Tower in central Seoul [JOONGANG ILBO]

In a suitability survey for opposition-aligned candidates, Chong ranked first with 21 percent, followed by Park at 8 percent and Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, at 7 percent. DP Rep. Seo Young-kyo and former Rep. Park Yong-jin each received 3 percent.

Among conservative candidates, Oh ranked first with 26 percent, followed by Na at 14 percent, former party leader Han Dong-hoon at 10 percent, lawmaker Shin Dong-uk at 3 percent and lawmaker Cho Eun-hee at 1 percent.

In overall candidate suitability, Oh led with 23 percent, followed by Chong at 19 percent, Na at 11 percent, Cho at 8 percent, Park at 7 percent, Han at 6 percent and Seo at 3 percent.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY SON KOOK-HEE, PARK JUN-KYU [[email protected]]