In the Trump Round, the Global South reshapes the world order

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In the Trump Round, the Global South reshapes the world order

Published: 19 Aug. 2025, 00:03

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Ha Hyun-ock

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

A tectonic shift has begun in the global economy. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff shock waves, the multilateral trade order that has underpinned the world economy for more than 80 years since World War II is unraveling. As the International Monetary Fund put it, “the global economic system is being reset for the first time in 80 years.”

On Aug. 7, Jamieson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative, declared in a New York Times op-ed the end of the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, which had governed global trade since its launch in 1995. In its place comes the “Trump Round,” a framework that wields tariffs and other measures to break down foreign trade barriers.

From left, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on July 6. [EPA/YONHAP]

The Trump Round is still unfinished business. While Washington has secured concessions from Korea, Japan, Britain and Australia, formidable obstacles remain. A counter-coalition against Trump’s high tariffs is now taking shape.

A counterfront forms: China, India, Brazil and Russia

At the forefront of resistance are the countries hardest hit by Trump’s duties: China, India and Brazil, each slapped with 50 percent tariffs. Their alignment is accelerating. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke by phone with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Aug. 7, and with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Aug. 12.

Even China and India — often at odds due to border disputes — are edging closer. Reports suggest Modi will travel to Tianjin at the end of the month to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, his first visit to China in seven years. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has been busily reinforcing ties, speaking separately with Xi, Modi and Lula earlier this month.

China and India continue to buy Russian crude despite Western sanctions over the Ukraine war, further antagonizing Washington. The U.S. tariffs on India are widely seen as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil and arms.

The Global South as the new battlefield
At the heart of this emerging counterweight is the Global South: some 120 developing nations across Asia, Africa and Latin America. Though difficult to define neatly, the term broadly refers to countries outside the U.S.-led liberal bloc and the former Soviet sphere, a legacy of the Cold War’s “Third World.”

The concept gained traction with the 1980 “Brandt Report,” which framed the widening gap between the wealthy North and the struggling South. Today, the overlap between the Global South and BRICS is expanding, with India, Brazil and South Africa firmly within the grouping and membership extending to Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Mexico and Turkey are also weighing entry, raising BRICS’ clout in the Global South.

Rising economic weight
The Global South now accounts for 21 percent of global nominal GDP — fourth after the United States (27 percent), Europe (23 percent) and China (19 percent), according to a May Deutsche Bank report. By purchasing power parity, its share rises to 34 percent. The bloc also commands 25 percent of global trade, 18 percent of defense spending and 11 percent of stock market capitalization.

The growth potential is striking. Between 2023 and 2029, the IMF projects the Global South to grow at an average annual rate of 6.3 percent, well ahead of the Global North’s 3.9 percent. With 63 percent of the world’s working-age population, it enjoys a powerful demographic dividend.

Resources are another advantage. Some 41 percent of critical minerals for energy and EV batteries are produced in the Global South. Chile leads in lithium reserves, Indonesia in nickel, and Congo in cobalt — all key to future industries.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington on April 2. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Shifting supply chains, challenging the dollar
The Trump Round is accelerating supply-chain shifts. Apple has expanded production in India under its “China Plus One” strategy. Beijing itself is diversifying outward, investing in Asean, Mexico and Brazil to escape U.S. pressure. China’s food imports, too, are shifting toward South America: last year, Brazil overtook the United States as its largest soybean supplier.

In Africa, China has secured over 30 percent of its overseas mining projects. Such moves raise questions about the resilience of the U.S.-centric trade model built on “Made in China, consumed in America.”

The Global South’s cohesion could also weaken the petrodollar system. As China, India and others increasingly pay for Russian oil in yuan, the dollar’s dominance as the medium of energy trade is eroding. Saudi Arabia’s potential acceptance of yuan payments for oil would mark a historic breach in the dollar order.

Limits and vulnerabilities
Yet the Global South’s promise comes with stark constraints. While populations are booming, education levels lag and quality jobs are scarce, leading to high unemployment and instability. Abundant resources often fuel corruption rather than development. Heavy public debt also weighs down many economies.

In short, the Global South is emerging as both an opportunity and a challenge — a force capable of redrawing the contours of global order in the Trump Round, but also one limited by internal weaknesses. Whether it will coalesce into a cohesive bloc or remain a diverse collection of fragile states will determine if this “fourth pole” of the global economy can truly reshape the future.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.