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How to spin the upcoming rulings in their favor

Published: 28 Oct. 2024, 19:10

Moon Byung-joo
The author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo.

November is full of unpredictable global events. It is hard to predict how the U.S. presidential election, the war in Ukraine, where North Korea has dispatched troops, and the conflict in the Middle East will turn out. For Korea, a country extremely vulnerable to global security and economic changes, each change is overwhelming. And yet, the domestic political situation has become the news that overshadows such international issues.

The conflict between President Yoon Suk Yeol and Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the president’s People Power Party (PPP), over the issues involving Yoon’s wife Kim Keon Hee is unlikely to be resolved easily. Of course, it is not something that should be ignored. Yoon’s presidency will pass the halfway point on Dec. 9, but there is little optimism about the rest of his term. In fact, the Rebuilding Korea Party has vowed to unveil a presidential impeachment motion that day.

As the majority Democratic Party (DP) observes the governing PPP’s internal conflict, it has been pushing for an independent counsel investigation of the first lady. The DP proposed a third special motion on Nov. 17, adding a charge of Kim’s suspected interference in the nomination process. The bill is scheduled to be voted on at the National Assembly on Nov. 14. The DP seems to feel confident since four governing party lawmakers had supported its second independent counsel investigation motion against Kim during the last voting session, in addition to the conflict between Yoon and Han.

Coincidentally, the Seoul Central District Court on Nov. 15 will deliver its first ruling on DP leader Lee Jae-myung for his election law violation. It is the first of four trials Lee is currently undergoing. The prosecution has asked for two years in prison, but even a lesser punishment, as long as it is heavier than a 1 million won ($721) fine, will make Lee lose his lawmaker position and disqualify him from running for the 2027 presidential election. The DP will also have to return 43.4 billion won of campaign funds from the last presidential election.

On Nov. 25, the court will also hand down a ruling on another trial of Lee, in which he was accused of subordination of perjury and the prosecution asked for three years of imprisonment. The judge in charge of the trial had struck down the prosecution’s request for a detention warrant in September last year, but noted that the prosecutors had enough grounds to back the charge. If Lee receives a prison term, he will lose his lawmaker seat and right to run in an election for the next five years. Although this is a district court trial, the ramifications are far-reaching.

This is why the DP’s political clock is set for November. The DP has pressured the judiciary by talking about possible impeachments of judges and criticized the judicial branch for trying to control the legislative branch. During National Assembly audits, the DP lawmakers argued that Lee’s criminal charges were groundless, as if they were Lee’s defense attorneys. Their actions were so unreasonable that the chief judge of the Seoul High Court even said, “I ask you to refrain from taking any actions that will be seen as pressure because you do not trust the judiciary.”

As expected, the DP decided to take the fight outside the courtrooms starting Nov. 2. The prosecution’s recent decision to drop charges against the first lady added fuel to the fire. The DP decided to call the rally, the “National Convention to Condemn Kim Keon Hee.” Although they argue that it is a protest in response to the prosecutors’ decision to drop charges against Kim in the Deutsche Motors stock manipulation case, it was actually an impeachment rally against President Yoon.

“If words do not work, you have to reprimand,” the DP leader said. “If reprimanding does not work, we must take down the president.” It seems that the DP will intensify anti-Yoon government fights even if Lee will face convictions.

The PPP is actually at a loss. The party is centered on the president’s stance of ignoring demands for changes while he sees all current situations as karma and accepts any stones being thrown at him. Perhaps he thinks time is on his side, or perhaps he hopes that his barely 20-percent approval rating will rebound after Lee’s first trial. But the people, currently in the psychological process of impeachment as they observe Lee’s scandals and Yoon’s running of the country, will not show dramatic support for either. Both parties must stop any actions that may influence the court’s judgements and their preparations to spin the upcoming rulings in their political favors.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.