Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto gives the thumbs up after delivering his annual State of the Nation Address ahead of the country's Independence Day, at the parliament building in Jakarta, Indonesia, Aug. 14. Indonesia celebrates its 81st Independence Day on 17 August.EPA/YONHAP
Ko Young-kyung
The author is a research professor at Yonsei University’s Digital Trade Research Center.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto unveiled eight major national priority programs, or PKPN, in an address to the nation on Aug. 14.
Each contains multiple projects, but two stand out: the domestic production of electric vehicles and electric motorcycles and a 100-gigawatt solar power project. They embody Prabowo’s determination to strengthen energy sovereignty and complete the downstream development of Indonesia’s natural resources.
Indonesia’s transition to EVs is underpinned by an industrial strategy aimed at leveraging its position as the world’s largest nickel producer to build a value chain stretching from batteries to finished vehicles. Motorcycles are particularly important. With about 140 million registered, they are an essential means of transportation for ordinary Indonesians. Because the government subsidizes more than 30 percent of gasoline prices, rising oil prices also increase the fiscal burden.
Through the Molinas project, the Prabowo administration aims to create an ecosystem encompassing manufacturing, parts, batteries and charging infrastructure. Electric motorcycles still account for only about 1 percent of motorcycle sales, but the government aims to put 13 million on the road by 2030.
The 100-gigawatt solar project is even bolder. Prabowo said Indonesia would build 30 gigawatts of solar generation capacity this year alone and retire 13 gigawatts of diesel generation. Indonesia is the world’s largest coal exporter but relies on imported oil. Replacing diesel generation on its many islands with solar power is intended to reduce the fiscal strain caused by rising oil prices.
Distributed solar generation, too, could reduce dependence on costly fuel shipments to remote areas, while electrifying motorcycles could curb demand for subsidized gasoline. Together, the projects link energy security directly to household transportation and industrial policy.
That linkage is central to Prabowo’s broader downstreaming agenda. Rather than exporting raw resources and importing higher-value products, Indonesia wants more processing, manufacturing and technological capability to remain at home. Nickel has become the flagship of that approach because it is a crucial material for many electric-vehicle batteries.
The question is whether the government can deliver. A national car project in the 1990s collapsed amid reliance on foreign technology and imported vehicles, the Asian financial crisis and a World Trade Organization dispute. Indonesia has succeeded in expanding domestic smelting by banning exports of unprocessed mineral ores, including nickel, but its dependence on Chinese capital and technology has actually increased. Chinese companies now control about 75 percent of Indonesia’s nickel refining capacity.
The market response has also been mixed. Shares of electric motorcycle maker Selis jumped 15.9 percent on the day of Prabowo’s speech but later surrendered some of those gains. Dian Swastatika Sentosa, which produces solar cells and modules, remained strong through the end of the month. Barito Renewables, a major renewable-energy stock, declined instead. Expectations for the policy may be high, but it remains unclear which companies will ultimately benefit.
Prabowo’s vision is part of a larger effort to increase Indonesia’s economic self-reliance, from natural resources to manufacturing and energy. Yet formidable challenges remain, including dependence on foreign capital, expansion of the power grid and persuading consumers to switch to electric motorcycles.
Prabowo is also under mounting political and economic pressure. His administration has faced a series of problems in pushing ahead with its free meal program, controversy over the military’s expanding role in politics and pressure from inflation and a weakening currency. His approval ratings have also fallen.
The stakes are therefore larger than energy or industrial policy alone. These projects are a wager that ambitious state-led investment can strengthen Indonesia’s industrial base, reduce vulnerability to imported fuel and demonstrate tangible economic gains to voters. But the record of earlier national projects, along with continued dependence on foreign technology and capital, shows how difficult that ambition will be to realize.
Can Prabowo’s projects win over investors and the public at the same time? The test now is no longer the scale of the announcements, but whether his government can turn them into reality.
프라보워의 승부수, 태양광과 전기오토바이
고영경 연세대학교 디지털통상연구센터 연구교수
프라보워 인도네시아 대통령이 8월 14일 대국민 연설에서 8대 국가 주요 과제(PKPN)를 발표했다. 각 과제 아래 여러 프로젝트가 담겼는데, 눈에 띄는 것은 국산 전기차와 전기오토바이, 그리고 100기가와트(GW) 규모의 태양광 프로젝트다. 에너지 주권을 강화하고 자원 다운스트림을 완성하겠다는 대통령의 의지가 담긴 사업들이다.
인도네시아의 전기차 전환에는 세계 최대 니켈 생산국이라는 강점을 살려 배터리부터 완성차까지 밸류체인을 구축하려는 산업전략이 깔렸다. 특히 오토바이는 등록 대수가 약 1억4000만 대에 달하는 서민생활의 필수 교통수단이다. 정부가 휘발유 가격의 30% 이상을 보조하는 만큼 유가가 오르면 재정 부담도 커진다. 프라보워 정부는 ‘몰리나스 프로젝트’로 제조·부품·배터리·충전까지 아우르는 생태계를 구축하려 한다. 전기오토바이 판매는 아직 전체의 1% 안팎이지만 2030년까지 1300만 대를 보급한다는 목표다.
태양광 100GW 프로젝트는 더 과감하다. 프라보워 대통령은 올해만 30GW의 태양광 발전소를 건설하고 13GW의 디젤발전을 중단하겠다고 밝혔다. 인도네시아는 세계 최대 석탄 수출국이지만 석유는 수입에 의존한다. 도서 지역의 디젤발전을 태양광으로 대체해 유가 상승에 따른 재정 부담을 낮추겠다는 포석이다.
문제는 실행력이다. 1990년대 국민차 프로젝트는 외국 기술과 수입차에 의존한 데다 금융위기와 국제무역기구(WTO) 분쟁까지 겹치며 좌초했다. 니켈 등 광물자원의 원광 수출 금지로 국내 제련산업을 키우는 데는 성공했지만, 중국 자본과 기술에 대한 의존도는 오히려 높아졌다. 실제로 중국 기업들이 인도네시아 니켈 정련능력의 약 75%를 쥐고 있다.
시장 반응도 엇갈렸다. 전기오토바이 업체 셀리스(SLIS)는 연설 당일 주가가 15.9% 급등했지만 이후 상승분을 일부 되돌렸다. 태양광 셀·모듈을 만드는 디안스와스타티카(DSSA)는 월말까지 강세를 이어갔지만, 대표적 재생에너지 종목인 바리토리뉴어블스(BREN)는 오히려 하락했다. 정책에 대한 기대는 크지만 수혜주는 불확실하다는 뜻이다.
프라보워 대통령의 구상은 자원에서 제조·에너지까지 경제 자립도를 높이겠다는 큰 그림이다. 하지만 외국 자본 의존, 전력망 확충, 소비자의 전기오토바이 전환이라는 과제가 남아 있다. 무상급식 강행 과정의 각종 사고, 군부의 정치개입 논란, 인플레이션과 환율 상승에 따른 경제 압박, 지지율 추락까지 겹치며 코너에 몰린 프라보워다. 과연 이들 메가 프로젝트가 투자자와 민심을 동시에 잡아낼 수 있을까. 이제부터는 선언이 아니라 실행이 시험대에 오른다.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
