World Cup's new tiebreaker rule leaves Korea facing an uneven playing field
Intended to reward head-to-head victories, the new formula may instead result in group-leading teams resting regulars and giving lower-placed teams an unexpected advantage.
Manager Hong Myung-bo, center, watches over a training session for the Korean national football team in Mexico on June 23.NEWS1
Korea could find itself on the wrong side of an uneven playing field at the FIFA World Cup 2026. The issue centers on a rule, introduced for the first time in World Cup history, that prioritizes head-to-head results over goal difference when teams finish level on points.
The idea behind the new rule was to reward teams for beating direct rivals rather than piling up goals against weaker opposition. In reality, however, the new system has produced a number of unintended consequences.
Mexico in Group A, the United States in Group D, Germany in Group E and Argentina in Group J have already secured first place in their respective groups. Under the new rules, none of them will lose their top spots, regardless of the outcome of their final group-stage matches.
Accordingly, the BBC claimed the new rule “lacks fairness” in an article published on Tuesday.
The new change has created situations in which already-qualified teams have little incentive to field their strongest lineups.
Mexico, which defeated both South Africa and Korea to secure first place in Group A, is expected to rotate out several key players against the Czech Republic before the round of 32. Mexico could replace first-choice goalkeeper Raul Rangel with another goalkeeper, Guillermo Ochoa. The team is also expected to bench five or six of its regular starters.
Consequently, the Czech Republic could face a significantly weakened Mexican side while Korea and South Africa had to take on Mexico at full force.
Furthermore, the scenario has major implications for the Taeguk Warriors.
If the Czech Republic defeats a Mexican squad which is intentionally playing at less than full strength while Korea loses to a South African team giving its all, the Taeguk Warriors would finish bottom of the group with one win and two losses.
As a result, Korea must prepare for its decisive final match knowing that the Czech Republic may receive a more favorable opportunity against Mexico than they did.
Cho Gue-sung shows his heading skills during a World Cup match against Mexico on June 18.KANG JUNG-HYUN
The new tiebreaker system does at least offer Korea one advantage: Korea’s draw against South Africa would be enough to secure second place regardless of other results. Even if Korea finishes level on points with the Czech Republic, Korea would advance based on its head-to-head victory.
Group E presents a similar scenario. With Germany having already locked up first place after two wins, Ecuador could benefit from facing a less-motivated German side in its final bid to reach the round of 32.
Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia and Jordan have already been mathematically eliminated. That leaves little at stake in the Group D match between the United States and Turkey and the Group J match between Argentina and Jordan. With first place already secured and elimination already confirmed, fans may be more interested in whether Lionel Messi takes the field and scores than in the outcome of the matches.
Morocco in Group C and the Netherlands in Group F will face Haiti and Tunisia, respectively. Since both opponents have already been eliminated, Morocco and the Netherlands can gain an edge in the race for first place.
Morocco's Ismael Saibari, left, scores his side's opening goal past Scotland's Jack Hendry during the World Cup Group C soccer match between Scotland and Morocco in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on June 19.AP/YONHAP
Brazil and Japan, however, do not enjoy the same advantage. Brazil faces Scotland in Group C, while Japan takes on Sweden in Group F, with first place still on the line in both groups.
The expanded format allows eight of the 12 third-place teams to reach the round of 32. It is the first time since the 1994 World Cup that third-place teams are competing for knockout spots.
The race among third-place teams is expected to intensify in the final round of group-stage matches as multiple factors such as goal difference, goals scored and fair-play points will determine the ultimate rankings.
Teams in Groups A, B and C will have to fight for third-place qualification with less information than teams playing later. Contrastingly, teams playing later will have a clearer picture. The teams that play later will know exactly how many points or what goal difference they need in order to advance.
In a worst-case scenario, the format could even create an incentive for teams to play for a mutually beneficial draw. The Group J match between Algeria and Austria is one fixture where such concerns could arise. Both teams enter the final round with one win and one loss.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
