New AFC Nations League could reshape Asia’s World Cup qualifying: ESPN
The Asian Football Confederation’s proposed Nations League, set to launch in 2030, could award Asia’s top six teams direct World Cup berths and combine Asian Cup qualifying into one format.
The Korean national football team sing the anthem before a group A match at the FIFA World Cup 2026 in Monterrey, Mexico, on June 24.XINHUA/YONHAP
Asia’s World Cup qualifying system could undergo a major overhaul under an Asian Football Confederation (AFC) proposal that would grant direct World Cup berths to the top six teams in a new Nations League set to launch in 2030, according to ESPN.
ESPN reported on Sunday that it obtained details of the AFC’s proposed Nations League format, which is to be presented to its member associations. The AFC had reportedly been scheduled to brief member associations on the proposal on Tuesday.
The AFC announced last December that it planned to introduce a biennial Nations League, which aims to kick off its first official competition in 2030. It is also considering holding a trial competition during the 2028-29 season to test the system.
The AFC aims to link the inaugural 2030-31 Nations League with Asian Cup qualifying, followed by World Cup qualifying from the second edition in the 2032-33 season.
Under the proposal, the AFC’s 47 member associations would be divided into three tiers — 18 teams each in the first and second tiers and 11 in the third tier. Like the UEFA Nations League, the competition would use a promotion and relegation system, in which teams move between divisions based on their results.
Unlike the current AFC Champions League, teams would not be divided into East and West Asian regions, and the entire continent would compete under a single league structure.
The AFC expects the Nations League to give stronger teams regular international matches against opponents of a similar level, while giving lower-ranked teams greater motivation through the prospect of promotion.
John Dykes, left, and Fatma Fahad host the AFC Asian Cup Saudi Arabia 2027 Final Draw ceremony at Qasr Salwa in historic Diriyah, a Unesco World Heritage site, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 9.AP/YONHAP
The biggest question is how World Cup berths would be decided.
The 18 teams in the first tier would each play 12 matches, six at home and six away. The top six would qualify directly for the World Cup, while teams ranked No. 7 through No. 10 would compete in a round-robin playoff for the remaining two direct berths. The third-place playoff team would advance to the intercontinental playoffs.
The proposed format is based on Asia’s allocation of 8.5 berths for the 48-team 2026 World Cup in North America. Under the current system, 18 teams that advance from the second round of Asian qualifying compete in the third round to determine World Cup qualification.
If the current FIFA rankings were used as the Nations League standings, Japan, Iran, Australia, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Qatar would qualify directly for the World Cup.
Under the Nations League system, Asia’s top 18 teams would compete against one another in a single league over an extended period.
The AFC also aims to reduce time and costs by combining the Nations League with World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying.
Korea's Son Heung-min, right, and South Africa's Khuliso Mudau battle for the ball during the World Cup Group A match between South Africa and Korea in Guadalupe, near Monterrey, Mexico, on June 24.AP/YONHAP
Under the proposal, the 18 first-division teams and the top six second-division teams in the 2030-31 Nations League would qualify for the 24-team Asian Cup.
The Nations League champion would be determined through a separate knockout tournament involving the top eight teams in the first tier.
The proposal has drawn keen interest from mid-ranked Asian teams. In Vietnam, attention has focused on the possibility of the national team earning a place in the first tier, with some expressing hopes that the new format could offer a fresh opportunity to compete for a World Cup berth.
Others, however, have argued that being grouped with Asia’s strongest teams could make the country’s World Cup qualification campaign more difficult.
UEFA and Concacaf are currently the two continental confederations that operate Nations League competitions involving all of their member associations. The AFC is believed to have modeled its proposal on UEFA’s Nations League, which launched in 2018.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
