Footballer Son Heung-min, center, holds his head in disappointment after Korea's 1-0 loss to South Africa in its final Group A match at the FIFA World Cup 2026 in Monterrey, Mexico, on June 24.NEWS1
Korea's hopes of reaching the round of 32 are no longer in its own hands. After falling to South Africa in its final Group A match on Wednesday, the Taeguk Warriors must now wait for results from the remaining nine groups to determine whether it can advance as one of the tournament's best third-place finishers.
Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa after forward Thapelo Maseko scored the winner in the 63rd minute. It was the Taeguk Warriors’ second loss of the group stage, after losing to Mexico 1-0. Korea finished the group stage in third place with one win and two losses, behind South Africa, which recorded one win, one tie and one loss.
The expanded 48-team tournament in this year’s FIFA World Cup 2026 allows eight of the 12 third-place teams to advance to the round of 32. Korea's campaign would have ended immediately had the Czech Republic defeated co-host Mexico. Luckily, Mexico's 3-0 victory over the Czech Republic on Wednesday kept Korea's hopes of advancing alive.
The wildcard rankings are determined by multiple factors: points, goal difference and goals scored.
If third-place teams finish level on points, they will be ranked by goal difference, goals scored and fair-play points. If they remain tied, the team ranked higher in the FIFA World Rankings will get the nod.
Only Groups A, B and C have completed group-stage play as of Wednesday. Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third in Group B with four points and Scotland placed third in Group C with three points. Scotland's 3-0 loss to Brazil left Scotland with a goal difference of minus three.
Korea currently trails Bosnia but sits ahead of Scotland. To advance to the round of 32, Korea must finish ahead of at least three more third-place teams.
Overall, Korea's position is not as bleak as it may seem. Although the Taeguk Warriors finished with only three points, their goal difference of minus one gives them a realistic chance of advancement.
Goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu dives as Thapelo Maseko scores a goal for South Africa at Monterrey Stadium during the World Cup group stage on June 24.YONHAP
Group D could work in Korea's favor. Australia and Paraguay will face off for third place after both teams defeated Turkey and lost to the United States. Australia enters the match with a goal difference of zero, compared with Paraguay's minus two. In other words, Australia’s victory would be the best outcome for Korea. A draw, however, would leave Paraguay with four points, enough to finish ahead of Korea.
Korea faces a tougher path in Group E. Germany has already secured first place, leaving the Ivory Coast, with three points, and both Ecuador and Curacao, with one point each, competing for the remaining knockout-stage berth. Korea is unlikely to finish ahead of that group's third-place team.
Group F could prove pivotal. Japan and the Netherlands are tied on four points at the top of the group, with Sweden on three. If Japan beats Sweden by at least two goals, Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 would improve significantly.
Group G presents another difficult scenario for Korea. Egypt leads with four points, followed by Iran and Belgium on two points and New Zealand on one. With three draws already recorded in the group, the third-place team is likely to finish with at least four points. Even if Iran and Belgium draw, Belgium would still finish ahead of Korea on goal difference.
Fans gather at Gwanghwamun Square in central Seoul to cheer for the Korean national football team during its Group A match against South Africa at the FIFA World Cup 2026 on June 25.JUN MIN-KYU
In Group H, Spain leads with four points, followed by Uruguay and Cape Verde on two points and Saudi Arabia on one. Korea's best-case scenario is for Spain and Uruguay to win the final matches.
Group I offers Korea a better chance. France and Norway have already won their first two matches, leaving Senegal and Iraq to battle for third place. Senegal enters with a goal difference of minus three and Iraq minus six. Senegal would need to beat Iraq by at least two goals to move ahead of Korea.
Group J could also play into Korea's hands. Austria and Algeria both enter their final match with one win and one loss. Korea would benefit if Austria, which has a goal difference of zero, wins, or if Algeria, with a goal difference of minus two, wins by at least two goals.
Group K is another matchup to watch. The Democratic Republic of Congo, with one point, and Uzbekistan, with no points, are competing for third place. A draw or a victory for Uzbekistan, which has a goal difference of minus seven, would favor Korea.
Cho Gue-sung, right, is seen on the pitch after Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa in its third Group A match at the FIFA World Cup 2026 at Monterrey Stadium, Mexico, on June 24.YONHAP
In Group L, Korea's preferred outcome is an England victory over Croatia. England has one win and one draw. Croatia currently sits third with one win, one loss and a goal difference of minus one.
Overall, Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 will improve if fellow Asian teams, especially Japan, Australia, Iran and Uzbekistan, deliver favorable results in their remaining matches.
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This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
