Korea slip to eighth after Egypt draw, hanging on by a thread

Even Egypt could not help Korea.

Korea has now slipped to eighth among the 12 third-placed teams — the final qualifying position to be able to advance to the Round of 32 at the FIFA World Cup 2026.

Egypt drew Iran 1-1 in the final Group G match at Seattle Stadium in the United States on Friday. With the result, the Taeguk Warriors' odds of advancing from the group stage has now fallen to less than 32 percent.

Mahmoud Saber gave Egypt the lead in the fifth minute of the match after capitalizing on a rebound from Iran's goalkeeper. Four minutes later, Egyptian goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir denied Iran’s Mehdi Taremi from the penalty spot. Iran equalized in the 14th minute, however, when Ramin Rezaeian scored from a tight angle after a rebound off of Shobeir.

The result was not favorable for Korea, which finished third in Group A with one win, two losses and three points, with a goal difference of minus one goal. Korea had needed Egypt to defeat Iran. Instead, Iran also finished on three points with three draws, but overtook Korea on goal difference.

Egypt advanced to the round of 32 as the Group G runner-up with one win and two draws for five points, level with Belgium but behind on goal difference.

Should Korea somehow qualify for the Round of 32, it would face Group G winner Belgium in Seattle on Thursday. While the updated scenario means Korea will avoid a meeting with Group E winner Germany if it can advance, its chances of even reaching the Round of 32 stage continue to dwindle.

Under this year’s tournament format, the top eight third-placed teams from the 12 groups advance to the round of 32. Teams are ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored and then fair play points.

Korea has now fallen to eighth place, the final qualifying spot, among the 12 third-placed teams.

Three groups — G, H and I — concluded their group-stage matches Friday.

Earlier in the day, Senegal trounced Iraq 5-0 in Group I. Although both Senegal and Korea finished with three points, Senegal moved ahead on goal difference. At the time, the result dropped Korea to seventh among the third-placed teams.

Spain then briefly boosted Korea's hopes by defeating Uruguay 1-0 in Group H.

Spain’s Alex Baena scored the only goal in the 42nd minute when his right-footed turning shot slipped past Uruguayan goalkeeper Fernando Muslera. The victory eliminated third-placed Uruguay, which finished the group stage with two draws and one loss.

Among the teams that have completed all three group-stage matches, only Scotland and Uruguay rank below Korea.

Korea now needs favorable results from other countries to secure a place in the round of 32. Following the loss to South Africa, only one of the nine possible qualification scenarios has been eliminated.

The final group-stage matches in Groups J, K and L will be played Sunday.

Korea needs one of the following scenarios to unfold: Ghana defeating Croatia in Group L; Uzbekistan drawing or defeating the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Group K; and Austria winning or Algeria defeating Austria by at least two goals, in Group J.

Failure to remain among the top eight third-placed teams would send Korea home.

Statistics provider Opta initially gave Korea an 87 percent chance of reaching the round of 32 immediately after the South Africa match. That forecast, however, dropped to 54.45 percent, and then to 36.04 percent after Senegal's win over Iraq. Spain's victory over Uruguay briefly raised the probability to 48.92 percent, but Egypt's draw with Iran reduced it again, down to 31.51 percent.

Korean fans now find themselves in the uncomfortable position of anxiously watching the remaining three matches and relying on other teams to keep their hopes alive. During the group stage, Korean fans have found themselves cheering for a range of other countries, including Germany, Australia, Japan, Egypt and Iraq, but only Spain delivered the result they needed.

BY PARK LIN [[email protected]]