Korea remains highly likely to reach World Cup round of 32 despite loss to Mexico

Korea has more than a 90 percent chance of advancing to the round of 32 at the ongoing World Cup despite its loss to Mexico, according to the latest projections.

Statistics firm Opta Sports put Korea's probability of reaching the knockout stage at 91.22 percent on Sunday. Korea opened the tournament with a 2-1 comeback victory over the Czech Republic before falling 1-0 to Mexico last week, leaving the team ranking second in Group A with three points from one win and one loss.

Mexico have already secured first place in the group with two wins and six points, making their advancement a certainty.

Behind Korea in third place, the Czech Republic and South Africa both have one point from a draw and a loss, but the Czech Republic's plus-one goal difference gives them the edge. Opta puts their chances of advancing at 30.60 percent, compared to 18.35 percent for South Africa.

Global sports outlet The Athletic also put Korea's round-of-32 odds at 89 percent immediately after the second match, projecting a 77 percent chance of finishing second in the group and a 12 percent chance of finishing third.

Korea's prospects in the 2022 Qatar World Cup were much more stark. It had just one draw and one loss after two games, with only a 9 percent chance of reaching the round of 16. A third-match victory over Portugal ultimately got them through.

"The situation after the second game is better than it was at the 2022 World Cup," Korea midfielder Hwang In-beom said. "We just need a draw or a win in the final group game, so all the players are feeling relatively relaxed."

The top two teams from each of the 12 groups — 24 teams in total — advance to the round of 32, along with the eight best third-placed finishers. Korea will secure second place and a spot in the round of 32 by winning or drawing against South Africa in their final group match on Wednesday.

Even if Korea draws and the Czech Republic beats Mexico, leaving Korea and the Czech Republic level on four points each with one win, one draw and one loss, Korea would still hold second place on head-to-head record — having beaten the Czech Republic 2-1. Under the tiebreaker rules introduced at this tournament, head-to-head results take priority over goal difference when teams are level on points.

If Korea loses to South Africa but the Czech Republic also fails to beat Mexico — drawing or losing — Korea could still advance as one of the eight best third-placed teams. The worst-case scenario would see the Czech Republic beat Mexico while Korea loses to South Africa, leaving Korea in fourth place with one win and two losses and out of the tournament.

Should Korea advance as runners-up in Group A, they would face the Group B runner-up in Los Angeles. In Group B, co-host Canada leads Switzerland on goal difference — both sides have four points from one win and one draw, but Canada's goal difference is plus-three. Opta rates both Canada and Switzerland as 100 percent certain to advance, and projects Korea would face Switzerland in the round of 32.

If Korea instead advances as a third-placed team, they would face the winner of Group E or Group G. Opta puts Germany at 99.84 percent and the Ivory Coast at 93.02 percent as the likely Group E qualifiers, and Belgium at 90.78 percent and Egypt at 80.12 percent as the likely Group G qualifiers.

BY PARK LIN [[email protected]]

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