The End of Trumpism

Michael Green

The author is the CEO of the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and the Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

When Americans go to the polls for midterm elections on Nov. 3, they will likely sound the death knell of Trumpism, though not yet the end of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.

All the data points to a bloodbath for Republicans. Trump’s popularity is the lowest of any president going into midterms in polling history, and presidential approval ratings are always the strongest indicator of how people will vote. In the generic question of who likely voters want running Congress, the Democrats are ahead by nine percentage points. On the three most important issues to voters — cost of living, corruption and the war in Iran — Trump is deeply unpopular.

Could the Republicans recover? It seems highly unlikely. They had hoped to launch a final messaging blitz on why Democrats cannot be trusted, but nothing has gone right. Trump has stepped on that message by holding rallies about himself that remind independent voters why they do not like him. The media is covering damaging stories about infighting in the White House, corruption allegations involving Trump’s ambassador to Greece and the disastrous debut and resignation of the new White House press secretary.

Any way one looks at the data, the Democrats are likely to win the House and probably the Senate — a result that would signal the repudiation of Trumpism. Yet Trump will still be president. So what happens next?

Former Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama all lost midterm elections in their sixth year and then moved to the center so they could push at least a reduced agenda through Congress. Very few observers of Donald Trump think that is what he will do. If anything, he is likely to look for even more dramatic and provocative ways to keep the limelight on himself.

Pundits warn that these moves could include building monuments and arches to himself in Washington; seeking high-profile “peace” agreements with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine at the expense of President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, or with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the expense of U.S. allies; and using the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation or other parts of the U.S. government for retribution against political foes to show his power.

Perhaps he will do none of these things, but if he does, he will find the Democrats in his way. The Democrats will probably not try to impeach Trump for a third time. However, they may go for impeachment of U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, whom national security Republicans would like to see go. Democrats will also use the power of the budget to deny Trump the funds he needs to construct his monuments to himself, including the “Trump” class of warships and the Trump “Golden Dome” missile defense system. There is also some indication that the Democrats will attack Trump’s tariffs in order to reduce the cost of living. Congressional investigations into corruption in the Trump administration are also coming.

All of this will further weaken Trump politically and drive down his approval rating. No party has won the presidential election after the incumbent hit approval ratings as low as Trump’s. This does not mean Democrats are a certainty for the 2028 presidential election — it is still easier to say what they are against than what they are for — but right now they seem to be in the much stronger position.

How do allies like Korea navigate this transitional period? Trump will still have power he can assert on tariffs and defense issues, so Korea will need to keep making progress on trade deals and defense commitments to keep his administration on side. At the same time, Congress will be poised to use the power of the budget, the appointment process and other authorities under Article I of the Constitution to put the brakes on Trump decisions that might damage Korean interests, like withdrawal of U.S. forces from the peninsula or a premature peace treaty with Pyongyang. Korea will need deft diplomatic strategies to work with both the administration and Congress without appearing to lean too far toward either.

Public opinion polls show that Americans like having alliances and want to see the United States play a leading role in the world. So do Koreans, according to Asan and other polls, giving reason for optimism that the alliance will emerge strong from the current political fluidity in the United States.

But not everything will snap back to the way it was before Trumpism. There will still be a need for allies like Korea to develop greater sovereign capabilities in tandem with collective defense efforts — first and foremost with the United States, but also with like-minded partners like Australia or Japan. Trumpism may be ending and Trump himself may be gone in two years, but Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kim and Putin are not slowing down to wait for what comes next in the United States.