President Lee's challenge as approval ratings slide

Kang Won-taek

The author is a professor of political science and international relations at Seoul National University. 

President Lee Jae Myung appeared somewhat bewildered. In his view, little had changed in the way he governed, yet his approval ratings had fallen. The decline came while he was abroad attending major diplomatic events, including a summit with the European Union, the Group of 7 meeting and a visit to the pope. News from home, however, focused on his slipping public support. Lee attributed much of the decline to infighting within the ruling camp. “People are struggling just to make ends meet. What are they fighting about?” he asked. He is not entirely wrong. Internal conflict has undoubtedly contributed to the erosion of public confidence.

Still, that alone cannot explain the scale of the decline.

Before the June 3 local elections, Lee's approval ratings consistently exceeded 65 percent. Yet he won 49.4 percent of the vote in the 2025 presidential election after receiving 47.8 percent in 2022. This means that until recently, between 15 and 20 percent of those expressing support for him had not voted for him in either presidential race. Some members of his original coalition have drifted away, but a drop to below 45 percent cannot reasonably be attributed only to tensions between the presidential office and the ruling party.

Perhaps the current situation is simply a return to political normalcy. The unusually high approval ratings over the past year may have reflected the honeymoon period that typically follows the inauguration of a new president. They may also have been helped by an opposition that had become politically ineffective, consumed by defending martial law and conspiracy theories.

The political landscape has since changed. After the local elections, the opposition gradually emerged from what many described as the spell of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Voters also began judging the Lee administration on its own record rather than comparing it with its predecessor. The Democratic Party failed to achieve the results it had expected in the local elections, most notably losing Seoul, the country's most politically symbolic city. That defeat suggested public sentiment had already begun shifting before opinion polls reflected the trend. With the next general election now only two years away, the result carries important political implications.

Every president eventually experiences declining approval ratings. Even U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating, which approached 50 percent early in his term, has recently fallen into the low 30s. Political scientists describe this pattern as “the law of inevitable decline.” Campaign expectations are impossible to satisfy completely and changing political and economic conditions inevitably alter the standards by which presidents are judged.

Lee is therefore not unique. Yet he should not dismiss the decline as temporary or insignificant. Falling approval ratings weaken political stability and reduce governing momentum. Once a downward trend begins, reversing it becomes extremely difficult. The more important question is how to respond.

Above all, the president should approach the decline with a sense of urgency. Rather than blaming friction within the ruling camp or the opposition, he should first ask whether his own leadership bears responsibility.

More than a decade ago, I participated in a research project examining presidential approval ratings in Korea. Watching Lee express disappointment over his falling support reminded me of that study, so I revisited its findings. After analyzing previous Korean presidents, we presented 12 recommendations for managing public approval. The first was straightforward: “Do not place excessive confidence in high approval ratings early in a presidency. Declining support is inevitable.” Every administration followed the same pattern.

The study also offered advice particularly relevant after the midpoint of a presidency. It argued that relying only on loyal supporters would no longer be enough. Presidents must cultivate a moderate and reform-minded image capable of attracting centrist voters. The coalition that brings a president to power naturally weakens over time, making broader consensus and widely acceptable policy goals increasingly important.

Early in a presidency, it may seem possible to govern as one wishes while disregarding the opposition. That phase has now passed. Persuasion, compromise and consensus-building have become more important. Above all, Lee should pay close attention to moderate voters. They often appear quiet, but as the local elections demonstrated, they evaluate politics carefully and without sentiment.

The earlier study contained another recommendation that now deserves attention. Because of the electoral cycle, the opposition cannot remain weak forever. Maintaining regular communication with opposition parties is essential. Once a strong opposition coalition emerges, approval ratings can decline much more rapidly.

The local elections appear to have marked the end of Lee's political honeymoon. He may still wonder why public opinion changed when, in his view, governance remained largely the same. Yet the political environment has changed, and it now demands a different style of leadership. With approval ratings slipping, Lee's political skills are entering their most important test.