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Record high early voting tells us little about who's actually winning, experts say

Published: 03 Jun. 2026, 07:00

An election official displays a ballot-marking stamp at a polling station set up in Seongbuk District, eastern Seoul, on June 2. [JOONGANG ILBO]

With a record share of voters casting ballots before Election Day, Korea’s major parties are racing to convince supporters that the momentum is on their side. Analysts, however, say the historic turnout may reveal little about who is actually ahead.

The 23.51 percent early voting rate set a new high for local elections, but the growing popularity of early voting across the political spectrum has weakened its value as a predictor of partisan advantage. As both parties mount last-minute efforts to mobilize supporters ahead of Wednesday's vote, turnout on election day — rather than early voting alone — is likely to determine the outcome in key battleground races.

Before this year’s election, the highest early voting rate in a local election was 20.62 percent, recorded in 2022. Yet overall turnout that year reached only 50.9 percent, lower than the 56.8 percent recorded in 2014 and the 60.2 percent recorded in 2018.

The 2022 election also challenged the long-held belief that higher early voting turnout benefits progressive parties. Despite the combination of high early voting and low election day turnout, the main conservative People Power Party (PPP) won 12 of the country’s 17 gubernatorial and mayoral races. By contrast, in 2018, when early voting turnout was lower but election day turnout was higher, the main liberal Democratic Party (DP) captured 14 of the 17 top local government posts.

So why doesn’t a high early voting rate reliably benefit one party anymore?

Democratic Party supporters pose for photos while rallying in Yeongdeungpo District, western Seoul, on June 2. [NEWS1]

One reason is that all voters, from the far right to the far left, have increasingly embraced early voting since the system was introduced in 2014.

The share of total ballots cast through early voting in local elections has risen steadily from 20.2 percent in 2014 to 33.5 percent in 2018 and 40.5 percent in 2022. The same trend has appeared in the general election, where the proportion climbed from 21 percent in 2016 to 40.3 percent in 2020 and 46.7 percent in 2024. Presidential elections showed some fluctuation — 33.8 percent in 2017, 47.9 percent in 2022 and 43.8 percent in 2025 — though analysts say the decline last year was largely due to early voting taking place on weekdays rather than the usual weekends.

Overall turnout, however, has remained relatively flat. Turnout in the general election rose only slightly from 66.2 percent to 67 percent during the 2020s, while presidential election turnout increased from 77.1 percent to 79.4 percent.

The figures suggest that early voting may be changing when people vote rather than increasing the number of voters.

People Power Party supporters pose for photos while rallying in South Chungcheong on June 2. [YONHAP]

“Because voter habits have been changing over time, it is difficult to regard this election’s early voting rate as particularly high," political science and international relations professor Jang Seung-jin at Kookmin University said. “The label of ‘record-high early voting turnout’ itself creates a misleading impression."

Political commentator Park Sang-byoung also cautioned against reading too much into the figures.

“It is an overinterpretation to conclude that the ruling party has an advantage simply because early voting turnout was slightly higher,” he said. “Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how effectively each side mobilizes its supporters on election day.”

The importance of election day turnout becomes even greater in closely contested races.

Posters of candidates in the 2026 local elections are on a wall in Mapo District, western Seoul, on June 2. [NEWS1]

In key battleground regions identified by both parties, early voting rates largely tracked the national average of 23.51 percent. Seoul recorded 23.84 percent, Busan 21.29 percent and South Gyeongsang 24.64 percent.

Among gubernatorial contests, North Jeolla’s 35.05 percent turnout stood out as an exception. In the parliamentary by-election , the most notable deviation came in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, where turnout was just 18.39 percent.

“The lack of significant regional differences in early voting turnout across most battlegrounds suggests that neither side has achieved one-sided voter concentration or mobilization in advance," said head of political consulting firm Polycom Park Dong-won. “In the end, the key question will be which party can bring more hidden supporters to the polls on Election Day."

Chong Won-o, the Democratic Party’s candidate for Seoul mayor, greets district council candidates and supporters in Yeongdeungpo District, western Seoul, on June 2. [NEWS1]

With just one day to go before Election Day, leaders of both major parties intensified efforts Monday to maximize turnout among their supporters.

“The embers of insurrection are still alive,” DP leader Jung Chung-rae said during a public appeal event on Tuesday. “Anti-constitutional and antidemocratic forces must be judged. If we vote, we win.”

Floor leader Han Byung-do likewise called on those who had not participated in early voting to cast ballots on election day.

Secretary General and head of the party election campaign committee, Jo Seoung-lae, told reporters that the party had launched a campaign "encouraging supporters to contact friends and acquaintances in battleground regions such as Seoul and Busan and urge them to vote."

The PPP responded with its own turnout campaign.

“We must stop Lee Jae Myung and the DP’s destructive and authoritarian governance," party leader Jang Dong-hyeok said in a public statement. "I ask every supporter to go to the polls without exception.”

Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party’s candidate for Seoul mayor, campaigns near Namdaemun Market in Jung District, central Seoul, on June 2. [JOONGANG ILBO]

Co-chairman of the PPP's election campaign committee, Song Eon-seog, issued an appeal aimed at younger voters in their 20s and 30s.

“Please open the campaign materials that arrived at your home,” he said. “Please search for news articles about candidates’ criminal records. The PPP will continue working to stand on the side of young people."

Some experts have expressed concern that the local elections are increasingly being reduced to a battle over partisan mobilization.

Local governments collectively manage annual budgets totaling 326 trillion won ($215 billion), according to 2025 figures from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Analysts warn that treating local elections solely as contests between national political camps could carry long-term consequences.

“Even though this election will determine local governance for the next four years, the campaign has focused more on national political issues and negative attacks than on regional concerns," political science professor Shang E. Ha at Sogang University said. “Voters should make choices based on their understanding of local issues and policy pledges. Only then will politicians feel compelled to pursue better local governance.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY HAN YEONG-IK, OH SO-YEONG, YANG SU-MIN [[email protected]]