Korea's local elections to be President Lee's first litmus test, even if direct impact on governance unlikely

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Korea's local elections to be President Lee's first litmus test, even if direct impact on governance unlikely

Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o, left, and his People Power Party rival Oh Se-hoon campaign on May 25 for the Seoul mayoral race. [NEWS1]

Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o, left, and his People Power Party rival Oh Se-hoon campaign on May 25 for the Seoul mayoral race. [NEWS1]



[EXPLAINER]
 
Exactly a year after people across Korea voted for a new president on June 3 of last year, another nationwide election will take place next week, serving as the first litmus test for the Lee Jae Myung administration.  
 
The upcoming June 3 local elections will see people vote for mayors, governors and local council members, as well as 14 national lawmakers through parliamentary by-elections.  
 

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The results of the local elections are unlikely to directly affect either the legislative power held by the ruling Democratic Party (DP) or President Lee himself, who took office nearly one year ago following a snap election triggered by the impeachment and ouster of former President Yoon Suk Yeol.  
 
The DP will still hold the majority of seats in the 300-seat National Assembly, even if it loses all 14 by-election races to the main opposition People Power Party (PPP). Likewise, a landslide PPP victory in mayoral and gubernatorial races is unlikely to dampen the Lee administration's regional development policies.
 
Mayors and governors, however, have the local-level authority to decide whether to deprioritize or delay implementation of policies pursued by the central government.
 
A victory by the PPP could thus see some initiatives being prioritized and implemented over pledges unveiled by the DP or even reshape the political landscape ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2028.
 
  
What seats are up for vote, and who is eligible to cast a ballot?  
 
The June 3 elections will take place to pick mayors and governors of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces, along with education superintendents and heads of smaller administrative units, as well as 14 lawmakers in electoral districts holding by-elections. 
 
There are 44,649,908 eligible voters, of which 89,151 are overseas residents, and 151,532 are foreigners.  
 
Election officials demonstrate early voting procedures at a community service center in Jong District, central Seoul, on May 28. [YONHAP]

Election officials demonstrate early voting procedures at a community service center in Jong District, central Seoul, on May 28. [YONHAP]

 
Early voting will take place from Friday through Saturday. Voters can cast their ballots from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Election Day, which falls next Wednesday and is a national holiday. Eligible voters need to bring government-issued IDs such as a driver’s license, a passport or a resident registration card.  
 
Foreign nationals in Korea can vote in local elections — though not in presidential or parliamentary ones — if they are at least 18 years old, hold permanent residency and have maintained that status for at least three years as of Election Day.
 
 
Who are key local election candidates?  
 
Incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, representing the PPP and seeking his fifth term, is up against DP candidate Chong Won-o, former head of Seoul’s Seongdong District.  
 
Both candidates center their housing pledges on expanding supply. Oh promised to supply 310,000 homes in the capital through private-sector-led redevelopment and reconstruction, in addition to 80,000 public housing units.  
 
Election campaign banners for Democratic Party mayoral candidate Chong Won-o and his People Power Party rival Oh Se-hoon hang at an intersection in Seocho District, southern Seoul, on May 21. [YONHAP]

Election campaign banners for Democratic Party mayoral candidate Chong Won-o and his People Power Party rival Oh Se-hoon hang at an intersection in Seocho District, southern Seoul, on May 21. [YONHAP]

 
While Oh focuses on a more market-driven strategy with large-scale private-led development, Chong emphasizes a balanced approach through public and private housing supply.
 
Chong pledged to provide more than 300,000 homes through both the private and public sectors, while underscoring the equal efforts from both sides.
 
“Housing supply should rely on two approaches by boosting both private and public redevelopment projects,” Chong said.
 
For the public transportation sector, Oh promised to adopt a system that uses wireless communication to keep subway trains properly spaced, thereby shortening waiting times.  
 
To ease the financial burden of public transportation fees, he also pledged to expand use of the Climate Card — Seoul’s monthly public transport pass that allows unlimited travel within designated areas — to the GTX-A and Shinbundang lines.  
 
Chong, on the other hand, promised to introduce public shuttle buses in areas with limited access to the subway and buses, and to run buses along subway routes after trains stop at night, so people can travel even when the subway is not operating.  
 
Both candidates have extensive political experience, with Oh serving as Seoul mayor from 2006 to 2011, over two terms, before returning to office in 2021, a position he has held since. Chong also served as the head of Seongdong District from 2014 to March this year.  
 
Even outside Seoul, many candidates in this year’s elections have long or high-level political backgrounds.
 
Over in Daegu, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, who served under the liberal Moon Jae-in administration, is running for mayor as the DP candidate against PPP candidate Choo Kyung-ho, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister under the conservative Yoon administration and former PPP floor leader.  
 
Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum, left, and his People Power Party rival Choo Kyung-ho campaign on May 22 for the Daegu mayoral race. [NEWS1]

Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum, left, and his People Power Party rival Choo Kyung-ho campaign on May 22 for the Daegu mayoral race. [NEWS1]

 
In Busan, incumbent Mayor Park Heong-joon, representing the PPP, is seeking his third term against DP candidate Chun Jae-soo, who served as oceans minister under President Lee and previously served three terms as a lawmaker.  
 
The Gyeonggi gubernatorial election — with the governorship of the country’s most populous province, with about 14 million people, up for grabs — pits six-term DP lawmaker Choo Mi-ae against PPP candidate Yang Hyang-ja, a former Samsung Electronics executive and a member of the PPP supreme council. The Gyeonggi race is the only one this year featuring female candidates from the country's two major parties.
 
 
Who are major candidates in the by-elections?  
 
The 14 parliamentary seats up for grabs include two each from Incheon, South Chungcheong and North Jeolla, three from Gyeonggi and one each from Gwangju, Jeju, Ulsan, Daegu and Busan. Of these seats, 13 were previously held by the DP.  
 
Key by-election races drawing attention include former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, a former justice minister, running as an independent in Busan against DP candidate Ha Jung-woo, and former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn running in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, against Cho Kuk, a former justice minister.
 
Independent candidate Han Dong-hoon campaigns in Busan on May 21. [NEWS1]

Independent candidate Han Dong-hoon campaigns in Busan on May 21. [NEWS1]



Han served as PPP leader from July to December 2024, during which he supported a move to impeach then-President Yoon despite their previously close ties as former prosecutors. He resigned as PPP chief after facing a backlash from the party leadership. 
 
If Han takes the Busan seat in the upcoming by-election, it would mark his first term as a lawmaker and strengthen his position in the opposition bloc. In a poll conducted on Saturday by Vision Korea, he received 41.5 percent support as an independent, compared to 34.5 percent by DP candidate Ha, President Lee's former presidential secretary for AI policy and future planning, and 18.9 percent by PPP candidate Park Min-sik, according to a poll released by Vision Korea  on Sunday.  
 
Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo, running for Busan's Buk-A constituency, appeals to voters for support in Busan on May 26. [NEWS1]

Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo, running for Busan's Buk-A constituency, appeals to voters for support in Busan on May 26. [NEWS1]

 
For Hwang, a victory in Pyeongtaek would also mean his first term as a lawmaker after his long political career, which includes a stint as prime minister from 2015 to 2017 under the conservative Park Geun-hye administration.  
 
Running as a candidate of the minor Freedom and Innovation Party, Hwang's support was at a mere 11.9 percent, well below DP candidate Kim Yong-nam's 28.9 percent, PPP candidate Yu Eui-dong's 20.6 percent and minor Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho's 24.9 percent, according to a survey released on Monday by Flower, a polling house run by liberal YouTube personality Kim Eo-jun. 
 
Cho, a liberal firebrand and vocal critic of ousted President Yoon, is running for a National Assembly seat after receiving a special pardon from President Lee last year. Cho was imprisoned for academic fraud and abuse of power. 
 
 
What are the DP’s main pledges?  



The DP says boosting local government autonomy is its foremost priority in the local elections.  
 
The ruling party aims to “increase local government funding and give more authority to local governments to support balanced development.”
 
Balanced development entails improving infrastructure in regions outside the capital area and relocating public institutions from Seoul to noncapital regions.  
 
The capital area — Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon — has long had more advanced infrastructure and more public agencies due to its much larger population. The three areas have around 25 million people as of this year, nearly half of Korea’s entire population. 
 
Against this backdrop, the DP vowed to support the growth of certain regions, such as Gangwon, South Jeolla and Jeju, which are self-governing provinces with more administrative power than ordinary provinces.
 
Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae, front right, encourages campaign workers in Gongju, South Chungcheong, on May 27. [NEWS1]

Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae, front right, encourages campaign workers in Gongju, South Chungcheong, on May 27. [NEWS1]

 
The DP plans to further reinforce the autonomy of these provinces by “fostering industries tailored to local characteristics and expanding infrastructure.”
 
To ensure greater local fiscal autonomy, the DP plans to raise local consumption tax rates and increase the share of national tax revenue allocated to local governments.
 
For the nationwide infrastructure sector, the DP pledged to expand the bus system and the railroad network. High-speed rail networks such as the KTX and SRT cover only about 41 percent of Korea as of this year.  
 
In the tourism infrastructure sector, the ruling party promised to expand parking capacity at local airports and increase the number of international flights arriving in noncapital areas to attract more foreign visitors.  
 
As for public institution relocation, the DP will seek to relocate the National Assembly and the Blue House from the capital to Sejong — home to numerous government ministries and agencies — to make the city a de facto administrative capital.  
 
 
What is the PPP promising?    



The PPP, meanwhile, chose housing as its top agenda item for the local elections, against a backdrop of rising rents and housing prices in the capital area.  
 
To alleviate the burden of rising costs, the PPP vowed to expand publicly operated long-term jeonse housing in the capital area and allow residents to live in government-backed homes at about half the market rate.  
 
People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok appeals for support for Nonsan mayoral candidate Baek Sung-hyeon in Nonsan, South Chungcheong, on May 28. [NEWS1]

People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok appeals for support for Nonsan mayoral candidate Baek Sung-hyeon in Nonsan, South Chungcheong, on May 28. [NEWS1]

 
Jeonse is Korea’s unique lease system in which tenants pay a large upfront deposit instead of monthly rent, with the money returned at the end of the contract term.
 
“Local governments can move forward with the housing projects after approval from local housing committees, without needing approval from the central government or changes to the law,” PPP leader Jang Dong-hyeok said on April 1.  
 
The PPP also stressed the need to supply more homes at lower costs.  
 
Another measure of the PPP’s housing policy is the removal of a government levy on profits from apartment reconstruction projects. Under the current law, the government imposes up to 50 percent tax on profits a homeowner earns through reconstruction, which the PPP argues has slowed the reconstruction process.  
 
 
Where are the key swing regions?
 
In the 2022 local elections, the PPP won 12 of 17 local government head posts, building on its victory in the presidential election three months earlier, when its candidate, Yoon, was elected.
 
This year’s elections, taking place one year after the Lee administration launched, are expected to see tighter races than four years ago, with six regions classified as closely contested areas, according to the DP and PPP, compared to four in 2022.  
 
 
The six regions are Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang and South Chungcheong, which the PPP swept in the last elections.  
 
Seoul is expected to be the tightest race among the six, with an Opinion Research Justice poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday putting incumbent mayor Oh of the PPP at 44 percent and the DP candidate Chong at 43.6 percent — a gap of just 0.4 percentage points.
 
 
What would the election results mean?  
 
A win for the DP can accelerate the pace of implementation of policies pursued by the Lee administration.  
 
Cooperation between the central and local governments might also prove smoother through 2030, when President Lee's term ends. This would overlap with the last years of the four-year terms of the officials to be elected next week.
 
If the PPP wins, however, it could alter the political landscape by framing the victory as a referendum on the Lee administration.  
 
That shift could further reinforce the consolidation of conservative voters ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2028, which will determine whether Lee can spend the rest of his term implementing his envisioned policies with sufficient legislative support.  

BY PAIK JI-HWAN [[email protected]]
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