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Defense Ministry plans to slash front line troops by 75%, but can AI replace soldiers?

Published: 20 Apr. 2026, 07:00

PAIK JI-HWAN
[email protected]

Soldiers from the Army’s 28th Division move along the demilitarized zone in Yeoncheon County, Gyeonggi, on July 25, 2022. [YONHAP]

South Korea's front line troops could be slashed by nearly 75 percent in the next decade or two, a move which may be inevitable considering the declining military personnel numbers.

The Ministry of National Defense said it plans to “gradually” reduce the number of troops stationed at general outposts near the heavily-fortified demilitarized zone from the current 22,000 to 6,000 by 2040, replacing them with AI-equipped surveillance systems.

“We can no longer maintain the old system in which hundreds of thousands of troops stand in lines along the wire fence, as it is physically impossible,” Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said on April 9, regarding plans to reduce general outposts troops. “We must make border operations more efficient and technology-driven in the era of population decline — it is not a choice, but a necessity.”

However, the announcement has sparked criticism from lawmakers of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) who claim that the plan will not only weaken the South’s military capabilities but also heighten public anxiety.

“If reducing guard troops neither enhances surveillance capabilities nor adequately replaces manpower, then such cuts will inevitably lead to public anxiety,” PPP Rep. Han Ki-ho said earlier this month.

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back delivers remarks at the Air Force’s 8th Fighter Wing in Wonju, Gangwon, on April 7. [NEWS1]

Ahn’s long-term plan comes as North Korea continues to test missiles and grow its military prowess and South Korea faces a personnel shortage for active duty members due to the country's chronically low birthrate. The South’s military, as of last year, had around 450,000 active service members, which fell short of a minimum of 500,000 deemed necessary for wartime mobilization.

What it means for border security

The reduction of the troops on the front line would not just mean replacing humans with AI systems, but could bring changes to South Korean security and the North’s stance toward the South.

“The negative impact will be substantial,” Park Won-gon, a North Korean Studies professor at Ewha Womans University, told the Korea JoongAng Daily about the potential troop reduction. “Although this is an unavoidable measure due to broader crew shortages, it ultimately means fewer troops. The general outpost troops serve not only as a source of crew for noncombat duties but also as a combat force that must actually fight if war breaks out — and this reduction directly lowers those combat troop numbers.”

South Korean soldiers stationed at general outposts do not just monitor what their counterparts do across the border, but they are the first picks to execute duties in case of war or the North’s provocations.

“Surveillance systems themselves are rapidly advancing, so they can help prevent a decline in readiness to some extent,” Park said. “However, these troops are, in crew terms, core combat forces. Reducing their numbers inevitably weakens overall readiness.”

A soldier standing at a North Korean military guard post is seen from Paju, Gyeonggi, on June 26, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

Ahn’s gradual plan is also not contingent on North Korea implementing a similar measure, which could put the North at an advantage during provocations or war.

North Korea continued to pose a threat to South Korea along the border even last year, with some soldiers crossing the military demarcation line — the de facto land border separating the two Koreas — and retreating after the South issued warning broadcasts and fired warning shots.

If the general outpost troop reduction were to happen over the next 14 years, it would coincide with the North’s plan to take over the South’s territory, which North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stressed in 2024.

“Because Kim Jong-un has stated his plan clearly, North Korea is now more likely to intensify pressure on the South and potentially use military force,” Park said. “In that regard, any reduction in our readiness and combat troop levels creates more opportunity for the North.”

Ahn has also not clarified whether troop reduction is aimed at easing tensions with North Korea. Nor is it clear that the plan will improve the relationship between Seoul and Pyongyang.

The Moon Jae-in administration demolished multiple front line guard posts after the two Koreas signed the Panmunjom Declaration — an inter-Korean agreement aimed at reducing military tensions and improving relations — in 2018, but the North essentially broke the pact by continuing to fire missiles.

A test for the U.S. alliance

A decline in the South’s military readiness would also not be an ideal scenario for the United States Forces Korea (USFK).

USFK spokesperson Col. Ryan Donald confirmed last year that the USFK's mission “remains peninsula-focused” but also supports “the broader objectives of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,” implying the possibility of future shifts in the USFK’s role in the Indo-Pacific region.

“From the U.S. perspective, Washington wants Seoul to take primary responsibility for defending the Korean Peninsula,” Park said. “At the same time, the United States appears to be seeking to expand the role of the USFK and the alliance beyond the peninsula to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. However, any weakening of South Korea’s readiness against North Korea would not align with U.S. interests.

Apache helicopters stand ready at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Dec. 18, 2025. [YONHAP]

“A weakening of readiness would not be a desirable outcome from Washington’s perspective. But the United States also recognizes that South Korea’s overall troop reductions are, to some extent, unavoidable, and is therefore unlikely to raise objections.”

From a broader perspective, the United States could view South Korea’s move to replace troops with AI as part of its efforts to take over operational control, the authority to command military forces in wartime.

“Even if troop numbers decline, South Korea is moving in the direction of strengthening its defense capabilities by integrating advanced science and technology,” security strategy expert Kim Jung-sup, a senior research fellow from the Sejong Institute, said. “We need to accelerate these efforts if we want to take primary responsibility for security on the Korean Peninsula and proceed with the transfer of operational control. If we fail to do so, it will only create problems.”

Can AI replace manpower?

Ahn made it clear that an immediate troop reduction will not happen, with the Defense Ministry planning to first upgrade its advanced surveillance systems and establish the necessary conditions by 2027, before expanding capabilities with AI, multi-legged robots and drones as it transitions to a future-oriented border security framework.

But critics have questioned whether that transition can deliver effective front line defense and surveillance.

“It’s unrealistic to expect robots to do everything,” national security expert Yang UK, a research fellow from the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, told the Korea JoongAng Daily. “They aren’t advanced or mobile enough. While fixed systems with mounted machine guns can provide detection and defense, mobile ground robots still face significant operational limitations.”

The AI equipment could only be part of a bigger problem for the South Korean military, which is struggling with a shrinking number of troops.

The number of military personnel declined from 560,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in 2025, according to the Defense Ministry, and there is no sign of that being reversed soon due to the country’s concerningly low birthrate.

The number of men subject to active duty service will only be around 151,000 in 2039, according to a report released by Korea's Board of Audit and Inspection in 2021.

Even if the Defense Ministry keeps a minimum number of troops at general outposts, the continued decline in personnel could create growing problems — from trouble recruiting skilled soldiers to less effective use of new AI systems — forcing the South Korean military to adapt quickly or risk weaker front line readiness.

BY PAIK JI-HWAN [[email protected]]