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IMF projects Korea's real GDP per capita to lag behind Taiwan's by over $10,000 in five years

Published: 19 Apr. 2026, 19:28

A person stands near a logo of the International Monetary Fund during the World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Korea’s real GDP per capita is projected lag behind Taiwan's by more than $10,000 in five years, according to forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this week.

After Taiwan overtook Korea in the metric for the first time in 22 years last year, the gap is projected to widen each year, making a reversal unlikely, according to the organization's World Economic Outlook report published on Wednesday.

Korea’s GDP per capita this year was forecast to rise to $37,412, a 3.3 percent jump from last year’s $36,227, according to the IMF’s outlook.

The institution predicted the figure to reach $40,695 in 2028. While the IMF originally said Korea could surpass the threshold of $40,000 in 2029 in its previous report in April of last year, it brought forward the timing by a year in its report in October of last year. That projection was kept in the latest assessment.

In contrast, Taiwan’s GDP per capita is expected to surge 6.6 percent from $39,489 last year to $42,103 this year, exceeding the $40,000 threshold ahead of Korea. The IMF expects Taiwan’s GDP per capita to reach $50,370 in 2029.

The gap between the two nations’ GDP per capita is also expected to widen annually from $4,691 this year to $5,880 next year and eventually to $9,073 in 2030.

By 2031, Korea’s GDP per capita is projected to reach $40,619, while that of Taiwan is expected to climb to $56,101, widening the gap between the two economies to more than $10,000.

In international rankings of countries by real GDP per capita, Korea is expected to slip from 40th place this year to 41st in 2031, while Taiwan is projected to rise from 32nd to 30th.

Korea, however, is expected to achieve the $40,000 mark ahead of Japan. Japan’s GDP per capita is projected to reach $35,703 this year, down nearly $300 from $35,973 last year. The IMF expects the figure to reach $40,398 in 2029, one year later than Seoul.

A robot transporting a semiconductor wafer is on display during an expo held at Coex in southern Seoul in February. [NEWS1]

Japan’s GDP per capita in 2031 is expected to reach $40,338, approximately $3,000 lower than that of Korea, while the country's global ranking is expected to remain unchanged at 43rd this year and in five years.

Taiwan’s rapid growth has been fueled by a global semiconductor boom, with 8.6 percent on-year growth in its real GDP last year compared to the previous year, the most drastic growth in 15 years. Its GDP growth rate — 8.6 percent — was eight times higher than that of Korea at 1 percent.

The average growth forecast for Taiwan this year stood at 7.1 percent, according to the Korea Center for International Finance, which cited predictions from eight major global investment firms last month.

Even amid intensifying geopolitical uncertainties as the Iran conflict remains unpredictable, financial firms revised Taiwan’s figure by raising it almost 1 percentage point from the February prediction of 6.2 percent.

The IMF also found that Korea's national debt is rising at a relatively fast rate compared to other advanced economies with nonreserve currencies. It is expected to exceed the group average on the basis of GDP next year.

The ratio of general government debt is projected to rise from 54.4 percent this year to 56.6 percent next year, which slightly exceeds the average of 11 advanced nonreserve currency countries at about 55 percent, according to data from the Ministry of Finance and Economy and the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Sunday.

While Korea’s ratio this year is likely to remain below this year’s cohort average of 54.7 percent, it is expected to exceed it within a year.

Korea’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 54.4 percent in 2026 to 63.1 percent in 2031, the largest gain among the 11 comparable countries over the same period.

Containers are piled up in a port in Gyeonggi on March 12. [NEWS1]

Domestic data also showed that the debt is growing faster than the growth of the economy.

According to the Korean Statistical Information Service, nominal GDP rose at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent from 2020 to 2025, while national debt increased by 9 percent annually over the same period.

Choi Ji-young, an IMF director, told reporters on Thursday that “the debt ratio projection has shrunk compared to the previous Fiscal Monitor outlook” regarding Korea’s designation as a country expected to see an increase in governmental debt.

“As the medium-term fiscal deficit projection has also been lowered, interpreting [the recent designation] as a warning [from the IMF] is an overreaction,” Choi said.

The full digital copy of the recent 2026 World Economic Outlook will be available online on April 30.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY CHO MUN-GYU [[email protected]]