Home > Business > Economy

Is betting on people's lives going too far? Prediction markets divide the ethical and economical.

Published: 10 Apr. 2026, 16:45

The online prediction market Polymarket website is displayed on a computer screen on Jan. 11. [AP/YONHAP]

A bet on whether the United States and Iran would reach a cease-fire by April 7 was posted on the prediction market platform Polymarket on March 24, about two weeks before the United States announced such a deal with Iran.

Around $107 million was wagered on the bet.

Betting has evolved into a niche financial market, known as prediction markets, drawing increasing participation and capital, but the absence of clear regulatory frameworks means that those involved may be navigating significant legal risks.

Anyone can participate in the cease-fire bet by signing up on Polymarket and depositing cryptocurrency. The probability of an event effectively becomes its price. For example, if the probability of a cease-fire is priced at 30 percent, “yes” can be bought for 30 cents and “no” for 70 cents. Unlike stocks, there is no limit on how much a user can bet.

As of Tuesday morning, the day of the cease-fire, the probability on Polymarket remained below 10 percent, but the issue arose afterward.

“At least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial ‘Yes’ bets Tuesday before Trump announced the [cease-fire] in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 p.m.,” reported Associated Press News (AP) on Wednesday.

A screen captured image from the online prediction market Polymarket website on April 10 shows bets on when ″Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?″ [SCREEN CAPTURE]

This led to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits, which AP describes as “highly specific, well-timed bets.”

One Polymarket account, for instance, wagered $72,000 at 10 a.m. that day when the cease-fire probability stood at 8.8 percent and earned $200,000. Another user joined 12 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced the cease-fire and made $48,500.

Prediction markets are exchanges in which participants trade “yes or no” contracts on whether specific events will occur. All transactions are recorded on a blockchain-based distributed ledger, which renders manipulation impossible. Once results are determined, the system automatically distributes payouts. Polymarket and Kalshi are among the leading platforms in the business.

Subjects range from relatively conventional topics, such as West Texas Intermediate crude prices, Bitcoin prices five minutes ahead and the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, to more tabloid ones, such as whether television personality Kylie Jenner and actor Timothée Chalamet will get engaged or whether the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of aliens.

A light-emitting diode, or LED, spherical screen displays information inside the online prediction market Polymarket's new location, called ″The Situation Room,″ during its opening day in Washington on March 20. [AFP/YONHAP]

Reactions to prediction markets remain divided, with some critics denouncing them as “unethical gambling that commodifies even war,” while others describe them as “a repository of real-time data.” They are, however, considered an emerging market complementing traditional financial markets and have drawn investment and partnerships from major Wall Street firms.

In the past, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) treated such markets as gambling and regulated them accordingly. That shifted after a federal court ruled in favor of Kalshi in 2024. The CFTC has since dropped its appeal and is now discussing a new framework to bring prediction markets into the regulatory system.

Still, concerns over the side effects of the industry remain significant. Criticism based on ethics has particularly intensified due to some bets treating human casualties in the Iran war as betting material.

For example, Polymarket recently faced backlash after listing a bet on when a missing U.S. military pilot would be rescued, which it later removed. In response, the U.S. Congress has introduced bipartisan legislation to ban bets related to deaths or war and to prohibit participation by public officials. France, Taiwan and Singapore have already blocked access to Polymarket, classifying it as an illegal gambling site.

But from an economic standpoint, prediction markets offer benefits as they condense fragmented global information into a single figure: a price. As a result, they have gained recognition as leading indicators that help gauge the direction of the economy.

Global investment banks are also pouring in funds. Polymarket secured large-scale investment last October from the Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, reaching a valuation of about $9 billion. Kalshi has also attracted investment from Sequoia Capital and others, raising its valuation to $11 billion.

Both companies aim to reach a valuation of $20 billion this year.

The logo of the online prediction market Polymarket is outside of the company's new location, called ″The Situation Room,″ during its opening day in Washington on March 20. [AFP/YONHAP]

Polymarket has also partnered with Dow Jones and begun supplying prediction data to major media outlets.

Crypto analyst Noelle Acheson noted that prediction markets are replacing the unique dynamism of the cryptocurrency market, and other observers say prediction outcomes could even influence actual market prices.

“Market experts have said that datafeeds from prediction platforms such as Polymarket are being used to create the algorithms that influence trading in the global Brent crude futures market,” the Guardian reported on April 2.

As betting markets grow, their results can shape investor sentiment, which in turn translates into demand for commodities or cryptocurrencies. Similarly, in politics, concerns have been raised about potential manipulation of public opinion.

In Korea, there are no regulations specific to prediction markets, making such activity likely to fall under gambling offenses in criminal law. Despite this, posts from users sharing their earned profits are not uncommon on major online communities.

One investor wrote, “I made back what I had lost in stocks in a month through Polymarket. This feels more certain than volatile stocks and is less stressful.”

Currently, a series of bets related to the June 3 local elections is listed on Polymarket, with approximately 23.7 billion won ($16 million) in trading volume on predictions for the Seoul mayoral race alone as of Thursday.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY JANG SEO-YUN [[email protected]]