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Defense procurement chief says Korea has 50-50 chance of winning Canadian submarine bid

Published: 20 Mar. 2026, 14:47

Canada’s defense official observes HD Hyundai’s Global R&D Center in Seongnam, Gyeonggi, on Feb. 4. [HD HYUNDAI]

The chief of Korea's defense procurement agency said he forecasts a 50-50 chance of Korea winning a major bid to supply submarines to Canada, adding that Seoul has done its best and the die has been cast.

The assessment by Lee Yong-cheol, chief of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), came as a Korean consortium is vying with Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems to win orders for all 12 submarines to be commissioned by Canada.

"The chances are 50-50, and of course, I don't know the answer," Lee told defense press corps reporters on Thursday. "We have done our best and will wait until the result comes out."

As part of efforts to win the project, valued at around 60 trillion won ($40 billion), relevant government ministries, including the defense, foreign and industrial ministries, as well as the Navy, and defense firms Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, signed an official document last month confirming government support for the bid.

Lee recalled his meeting with senior Canadian officials who visited Korea, saying they expressed great interest in submarine operations and maintenance.

"Based on conversations, their interest in [submarine] operations and maintenance was very high, and to ensure such capabilities, detailed requests were made on technology transfers," the DAPA chief said.

"At least, this shows that Canada is seriously considering the possibility of partnering with Korea, so this is not bad," Lee said, although adding that similar efforts could be underway on the German side, and it would be "hasty" to make a judgment only based on such conversations.

Officials pose for a photo during the launch ceremony of the Jang Yeong-sil submarine made by Hanwha Ocean, in Geoje, South Gyeongsang, on Oct. 22, 2025. [YONHAP]

As Korea seeks to become the world's fourth-largest defense exporter, Lee acknowledged that it is a "challenging" but "not an impossible" goal, striking a positive note on accomplishing it.

"Considering the trend, I cannot make a rapid promise that we will achieve it next year, but I believe the environment itself is not bad," Lee said.

"If the Canadian submarine project is successful, the underlying environment will change. But even excluding it [...] we are at least expected to reap similar results compared to the previous year," he added.

Korea aims to export $20 billion worth of arms products and diversify its export destinations, accounting for 6 percent of the global market by 2030.

Last year, the country's arms exports exceeded $15 billion, snapping two straight years of decline, backed by a sharp rise in exports of key weapons systems, such as the K9 self-propelled howitzer and the K2 battle tank.

Yonhap