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Trump's strikes on Iran offer North's Kim justification for going nuclear, snubbing talks: Experts

Published: 04 Mar. 2026, 07:00 Updated: 04 Mar. 2026, 07:39

U.S. President Donald Trump oversees ″Operation Epic Fury″ activity against Iran from Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 2, in this photo released by the White House on March 2. [AFP/YONHAP]

U.S. President Donald Trump’s justification for the recent airstrike on Iran has effectively undermined Washington’s denuclearization strategy toward Pyongyang, U.S.-based experts said in exclusive interviews with the JoongAng Ilbo, who also expressed doubt that a summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un remains on the table.

Just as Trump already referred to the North as a "nuclear power," the experts assert that Pyongyang has even advanced beyond the point where military force by the United States could prove effective.

Airstrikes on Iran a disincentive for North

Trump’s airstrikes on Iran, aimed at blocking Tehran’s potential development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the U.S. mainland, that began on Saturday resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the following day.

The experts who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo predicted that a possible U.S.-North Korea summit linked to Trump’s visit to China later this month has become even less likely in light of recent developments surrounding Iran.

“The primary distinction is that Iran doesn’t yet have nuclear weapons, but North Korea does,” said John Hamre, the president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Were we to strike North Korea, I personally think the North Koreans would consider it an existential threat and would launch nuclear weapons against South Korea.”

“We have to avoid that at all costs,” Hamre continued. “North Korea has had nuclear weapons now for over 15 years. We have failed to coax them to abandon their weapons.”

“Kim might have seen benefits to meeting with Trump to tout a peace declaration that would appeal to Trump’s quest for a Nobel Peace Prize but also degrade U.S. deterrence on the Korean Peninsula," said Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Marueen and Mike Mansfield Foundation. "However, Trump likely undermined even minimal chances of a meeting with Kim by attacking Iran.”

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs a Medal of Honor ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 2. [EPA/YONHAP]

North's nuclear forces 'increasingly capable'

In fact, the U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged that North Korea’s nuclear technology — including nuclear warheads and ICBMs capable of delivering them — is effectively in its final stages of completion.

The new National Defense Strategy (NDS) of the Defense Department released on Jan. 23 stated that “the DPRK’s nuclear forces are increasingly capable of threatening the U.S. Homeland,” referring to North Korea by the initialism of its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, noting that these forces are “growing in size and sophistication,” presenting “a clear and present danger of nuclear attack.”

However, the NDS did not explicitly list North Korea’s denuclearization as a stated security objective of the Trump administration.

This contrasts with its description of Iran as a country that “will try again to obtain a nuclear weapon,” stressing that Tehran must be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un fires a rifle during a visit to a military camp near Pyongyang on Feb. 28, in this photo released by the state-run Rodong Sinmun. [NEWS1]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's daughter Kim Ju-ae fires a rifle during a visit to a military camp near Pyongyang on Feb. 28, in this screengrab from the state-run Korean Central Television. [YONHAP]

Kim likely content with going nuclear

Trump explained his decision to strike Tehran, noting that Iran "ignored warnings and refused to cease their pursuit of nuclear weapons,” at a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House on Monday. “The regime’s conventional ballistic missile program was growing rapidly and dramatically, and this posed a very clear, colossal threat to American air forces stationed overseas.”

Trump’s remarks suggest that the airstrike was feasible because Iran had not yet completed the development of nuclear weapons capable of directly striking the United States. The comments also imply that invoking a military option would have been far more difficult had Iran already possessed such capabilities, Klingner noted.

“Prior to Trump attacking Iran, the U.S. intelligence community had concluded that Tehran had not reconstituted its nuclear weapons program and that an ICBM program was a decade away from being able to target the United States,” he said, adding that the strike on Iran was possible because Iran’s ability to inflict broad retaliation against the United States remains limited.

Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 3. The United States and Israel started striking Iran on Feb. 28, killing Iran's supreme leader and top military leaders, and prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and across the Gulf. [AFP/YONHAP]

“Pyongyang, by contrast, has an estimated 50 or more nuclear weapons, numerous ICBMs that can target the entire continental United States, and extensive conventional forces including missiles that can inflict major damage on South Korea and U.S. forces and civilians there,” the Mansfield Foundation fellow said. “All estimates of a conflict with North Korea conclude that there would be hundreds of thousands of casualties, including Americans, even without nuclear attacks.”

“I am guessing that Kim Jong-un is watching the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran and has two thoughts; one is that he made the right decision in going nuclear — the presence of a developed nuclear weapons capability, and increasingly a survivable nuclear weapons system, gives him assurance that the United States will never attack North Korea as it has done to Iran,” said Daniel Sneider, a professor of international policy at Stanford University.

'Kim cannot trust Trump'

The other, Sneider added, is that Trump's remarks on Iran will reinforce Pyongyang’s belief that possessing nuclear weapons is the only way to avoid a U.S. attack.

“[Kim] can never trust Trump to conduct serious diplomatic negotiations,” he said. “The U.S. used their negotiations with Iran as a cover for preparations for war. I would think it would make Kim even less likely to opt for talks with Trump, in April or maybe ever.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, is seen overseeing a hypersonic missile launch drill on Jan. 29, in this photo released by the state-run Rodong Sinmun. [NEWS1]

Klingner echoed Sneider's comments, adding that North Korea had no incentive for engaging in dialogue with the United States.

“Pyongyang is gaining far greater economic and military benefits, with fewer conditions, from Russia than it could possibly get from the United States,” Klingner said.

At this point, “only two options” are left for the U.S. and South Korea for North Korean denuclearization, Hamre argued.

“One option is that we physically invade North Korea, locate the nuclear weapons and destroy them,” Hamre said. “But that likely would trigger North Korea to launch their nuclear weapons. The only other option is deterrence.”

“I do think that many [South] Koreans are questioning America‘s reliability as a deterrence partner,” he noted. “I personally think we need to do more to convince [South] Koreans that we are committed to extended deterrence. I believe that is the focus of the Lee Jae Myung government. The Trump administration recently restated its support for extended deterrence. But we may need to do more than that.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY KANG TAE-WHA [[email protected]]