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Could Lee's state visit to China normalize bilateral ties in the new year?

Published: 01 Jan. 2026, 07:00

SARAH KIM
[email protected]

LEE SOO-JUNG
[email protected]

Korean President Lee Jae Myung, left, bids farewell to Chinese President Xi Jinping after the state dinner following their bilateral summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, on Nov. 1. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

President Lee Jae Myung is set to make a state visit to China at the beginning of the new year in a trip that could signal the normalization of bilateral ties.

The upcoming state visit has led to anticipation in Seoul over a potential breakthrough in relations, following unofficial sanctions on South Korea's entertainment and tourism industries for nearly a decade over the deployment of a U.S.-led antimissile system.

Starting Sunday, Lee will make a four-day trip to Beijing and Shanghai, reciprocating Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit on the margins of the APEC summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, just two months ago.

Following his snap election in June 2025, Lee revealed his "pragmatic" approach to diplomacy, as shown in the early months of his administration. After the announcement of widespread tariffs from the Trump administration, Lee focused on tough negotiations with the United States. The negotiations were finalized through the two countries' joint fact sheet released in November.

The Lee administration now appears to be making preparations for the next stage of its diplomatic outreach in the new year. During the China trip, Lee is expected to engage Beijing on economic and security issues, including seeking consensus on his North Korea initiative and building on the momentum from the recent summit with Xi to strengthen strategic cooperation.

Lee will be the first Korean president to head to China since 2019. He is expected to be accompanied by a large business delegation, including leaders of Korea's top conglomerates. Former President Moon Jae-in was the last Korean leader to make an official state visit to China in 2017.

The president's diplomatic trip comes at a sensitive time amid intensifying tensions between China and Japan, especially over the Taiwan issue. Regional players are currently eyeing what role South Korea will play in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. South Korea has traditionally tried to keep the balance between the United States and China, but the country has been recently been pushed to take a firmer stance.

Analysts weigh in that the second Lee-Xi summit may not immediately bring about dramatic shifts in policies, but could still provide a pivotal opportunity for Seoul to address concerns regarding security, as well as economic and cultural cooperation.

Korean President Lee Jae Myung, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping share a toast during the APEC summit gala dinner at a hotel in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, on Oct. 31. [YONHAP]

Hallyu ban and the tasks at hand

The upcoming China trip comes on the heels of Lee and Xi's first meeting in South Korea on Nov. 1 on the margins of the APEC summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang. Xi's state visit marked the Chinese president's first trip to Korea in 11 years.

During this visit, Lee expressed hopes that South Korea and China would strengthen strategic communication and work together to resume dialogue with North Korea.

Xi in turn stressed that "promoting the healthy and stable development of South Korea-China relations is always the right choice."

The two countries' relations soured drastically after Seoul and Washington agreed to the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system in Korea in 2016 and completed the installation of the battery in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang, the following year.

In response, China implemented retaliatory measures targeting Korean businesses, the entertainment industry and tourism. This included bans on package tours to Korea, leading to a marked drop in visitors, and large-scale K-pop concerts in mainland China, at least unofficially.

"There is a consensus that South Korea-China relations have hit rock bottom and need to recover, stemming from the Thaad issue, the Covid-19 pandemic and the previous administration's policies toward China," Lee Dong-yul, a Chinese studies professor at Dongduk Women's University, said. He added that if this relationship is neglected further, it could lead to "chronic tensions."

Travel between Korea and China [NAM JUNG-HYUN]

Prof. Lee noted that the APEC summit confirmed both sides' willingness to restore ties, with the state visit further signaling that "a breakthrough is possible."

"One of the driving forces behind restoring Korea-China relations is culture and tourism," Prof. Lee said. "The lifting of the Thaad bans should be approached as a natural progression through tourism and cultural exchange."

He said that Korea shouldn't "obsess over an explicit lifting of the ban," warning that even if the unofficial measures are lifted, Korean content may find it difficult to "regain its former glory" due to the development of China's own content.

"In the sociocultural context of South Korea-China relations, the lifting of the ban on Korean culture is arguably the most significant issue for South Korea," Ha Nam-suk, a professor at the University of Seoul's Department of Chinese Language and Culture, said.

"However, it's difficult to view China's current control over foreign popular culture as simply a retaliatory measure limited to Korean pop culture," Ha said, adding that the country's stance can be viewed as part of the Chinese Communist Party's domestic social policy for social and cultural control.

"Rather than hastily demanding the lifting of a full-scale ban on Korean popular culture in an effort to expand the K-initiative, it seems necessary to adjust the pace appropriately by each sector," Ha said. Instead of just focusing on K-pop, K-drama and movies, which Chinese authorities can find "sensitive," Ha suggests that cultural exchanges could begin in broader areas including literature.

Prof. Lee said that while "expecting a sudden, spectacular recovery for Hallyu is overly ambitious, cultural and tourism exchanges will gradually resolve the issues."

South Korea and China also recently extended visa-free entry programs for each other to encourage tourism.

Kim Heung-kyu, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Ajou University, noted that at the APEC summit, Xi "signaled a clear commitment to improving relations with South Korea."

He pointed out that President Lee's upcoming state visit to China "will likely provide some insight into China's shift in attitude toward its unofficial ban on Korean culture" since the Thaad deployment, adding that "the current mood is more positive than at any time since then."

North Korea and the nuclear dilemma

As Seoul gears up for follow-up consultations with the United States on the joint fact sheet on trade and security matters, diplomatic developments surrounding the Korean Peninsula are expected accelerate from the beginning of the new year.

The South Korean government is currently in discussions with the United States on the construction of a nuclear-powered submarine, a move that is raising concerns from China.

At the same time, South Korea will need to get China on board with its phased approach on North Korea, known as the "END initiative." The strategy is built on the pillars of exchange, normalization and denuclearization to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and bring Pyongyang back to the dialogue table.

Aside from the North issue, Seoul will have to remain aware of global optics as it aims to maintain healthy diplomatic ties with Washington, its longtime security partner, amid growing friction between the new right-leaning Japanese government and China, its closest neighbors, and a growing Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry.

"The U.S.-China strategic competition and the recent Sino-Japanese conflict are enhancing South Korea's strategic value," Prof. Kim Heung-kyu said. "Therefore, China will likely seek to expand exchanges with South Korea in cultural areas, where achieving results is relatively easy."

However, he said that given the nature of China's cultural policy, which is based on ideology and values and integrates culture and security, it will "not allow for the full-scale adoption of capitalist culture."

In terms of security, Kim said that "China is deeply concerned that South Korea's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines will be incorporated into the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China." The expert adds that it is necessary to continually convince China that "South Korea's nuclear submarine acquisition is an inevitable nonnuclear conventional deterrent" to counter North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) threat.

"China, likewise, believes that stability on the Korean Peninsula serves its core interests, and thus, will not want North Korea's nuclear and missile superiority to undermine stability on the peninsula," Kim said, and "China doesn't want a reshuffle of Northeast Asia into a Cold War structure, a point of mutual interest shared by South Korea."

"China hopes that trilateral military cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan will remain limited to responding to North Korea's nuclear threat," Prof. Kim Jun-yeup of Kyung Hee University Institute of Global Affairs said. "If such cooperation were to expand to issues such as the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, China would strongly oppose South Korea aligning militarily with the United States and Japan, and Korea–China relations would immediately enter a phase of tension."

He added that China is "most worried about South Korea becoming a forward base for the U.S. military strategy in the Asia-Pacific region."

Analysts say that Lee needs to speak up regarding China's installation of maritime structures in the Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ), a jointly managed area in the Yellow Sea, and North Korea's denuclearization.

"China sees the South Korea-U.S. alliance as a channel for U.S. nuclear assets to enter Korea anytime," Prof. Kang Jun–young said, saying Seoul must use its leveraging power. "As president, Lee must push for denuclearization, even if China resists."

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport in Busan, on the sidelines of the APEC summit on Oct. 30. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Economic potential, strategic leverage

The large-scale economic delegation traveling to China, the first in six years, in turn is expected to "send a strong signal to the Chinese government that Korean companies are ready to invest in China again," Prof. Kim Heung-kyu said, serving as leverage to spur local deregulation and incentives.

Prof. Lee Dong-yul noted that a summit isn't likely to lead to the immediate recovery of relations, noting that hindrances like rising anti-China sentiment persist in South Korea, but opportunity remains in terms of economic and strategic cooperation.

"There needs to be a widespread awareness of the tangible economic benefits of exchange and cooperation with China, but for that to happen, more specific details of cooperation need to be revealed, which will likely take some time," Prof. Lee said. "Economic exchange is the most feasible area of cooperation in South Korea-China relations. China remains a crucial partner and a significant market."

Bilateral trade volume between Korea and China [NAM JUNG-HYUN]

However, he noted that South Korea's approach of depending on China as a production base to increase exports "has reached its limits" and that while the "China risk" in the past stemmed from excessive export dependence on China, it has now shifted to dependence on imports of critical minerals.

"It is crucial for Korea to stabilize imports through cooperation with China, while pursuing ways to reduce this import dependence," Prof. Lee said.

Prof. Kang Jun–young pointed out that "China feels the pressure" after South Korea signed onto the U.S.-led Pax Silica Declaration to build a "trusted" supply chain ecosystem for artificial intelligence, critical minerals and other areas, as Washington seeks to counter Beijing in those fields. This "raises Korea's strategic value," as Seoul prioritizes supply chain stability.

Kang said that Beijing sees Seoul as the weakest link in the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral framework, but as the two countries are "deeply connected economically and culturally," Seoul may want to leverage this factor.

Kim Heung-kyu said China is "deeply concerned that South Korea's introduction of nuclear-powered submarines could be incorporated into the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy." South Korea, the professor says, needs to "continuously persuade China that this is an unavoidable nonnuclear conventional deterrence measure intended solely to respond to North Korea's SLBM threat."

China, too, recognizes that stability on the Korean Peninsula aligns with its core interests and would not want North Korea's nuclear and missile threats to undermine that stability, Kim said. "At the same time, China does not want Northeast Asia to be fall into a Cold War–style confrontation, which is an area where Chinese and South Korean interests align."

"The question, however, lies in how South Korea and China can formulate meaningful economic cooperation plans amid U.S. attempts to fragment supply chains for critical resources," Kim said. "From South Korea's perspective, a significant challenge remains on how to establish a stable and sustainable relationship with China without damaging its relationship with the United States."

BY SARAH KIM, LEE SOO-JUNG [[email protected]]

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Could Lee's state visit to China normalize bilateral ties in the new year?

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