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'Active' older people set to drive Korea's economy from 2050 as aging population grows

Published: 10 Dec. 2025, 07:00 Updated: 10 Dec. 2025, 19:21

A person takes part in a job fair for older adults held in Busan on Dec. 8. [YONHAP]

By 2072, nearly half of Korea’s employed population will be aged 60 or older, and from 2050 onward, people over 50 are expected to account for 70 percent of total consumer spending — signaling a major demographic shift in which “active” older people become the driving force of the economy.

According to a special report titled “Responding to a Population Crisis and Shrinking Society” (translated) jointly published Monday by the National Assembly Research Service and the National Assembly Budget Office, Korea’s total number of employed people will fall to 18.28 million by 2072 — just 64 percent of the 2024 figure — due to population decline. However, the proportion of workers aged 60 or older is projected to rise to 45.5 percent, nearly double the 22.7 percent recorded last year. Over the same period, the share of workers aged 34 or younger is expected to drop from 23.1 percent to 16 percent.

The aging of the work force, however, does not necessarily translate to a decline in labor productivity. The share of highly educated workers is projected to rise from 51.8 percent in 2024 to 72.5 percent in 2072. In a separate survey by the Ministry of Data and Statistics last year, 73.5 percent of people aged 65 said they wanted to continue working — indicating that many are likely to become “active seniors” who remain economically and socially engaged through both income generation and consumption.

In Korea, this shift is expected to occur faster than in other developed nations. According to the AARP, people aged 50 or older made up 39.7 percent of Korea’s population in 2020, slightly below the Group of 7 (G7) average of 41.4 percent. But by 2050, that number is expected to rise to 59 percent — the highest among G7 nations. The demographic's share of total consumer spending is projected to surge from 52 percent to 71.1 percent during the same period. Both increases would be the steepest among G7 countries. In terms of employment and labor income, the growth in the economic footprint of older adults in Korea is second only to Italy.

As this population segment gains influence, it is also set to transform Korea’s industrial structure — from manufacturing to services. Based on a panel dataset covering all 38 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states from 1970 to 2023, experts found that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of elderly residents led to a 0.7 percentage point drop in manufacturing’s value-added share, but a 1.1 percentage point rise in services. If this trend holds, Korea’s manufacturing share, which stood at around 26 percent in 2022, could fall to 22 percent by 2070, while services could rise from 64 percent to nearly 70 percent.

This is partly because older adults are not only driving demand in areas such as health care, welfare and leisure, but are also working in caregiving and other service-related roles. The key issue will be improving the quality of service-sector jobs.

“As manufacturing employment weakens and services become the backbone of the labor market, Korea will need to maintain a higher-than-OECD-average share of manufacturing while boosting productivity in services to sustain income levels,” the researchers said.

Citizens take part in a job fair for older adults held in Busan on Dec. 8, 2025. [YONHAP]

They also emphasized the need to identify jobs suited to older adults and to strengthen education and training programs so the older generation can adapt to rapidly evolving digital technologies.

Still, the report warned against being misled by employment data. While service-sector jobs are increasing — particularly among women and older workers — the overall number of employed people is expected to peak in the early 2030s and then begin to decline due to the accelerating population decrease.

“A shrinking society is an inevitable trend,” said You Hye-mi, an economics professor at Hanyang University. “But the real problem lies in the fiscal strain brought on by rapid aging. It’s essential to expand economic participation among highly skilled seniors while also ensuring that policy measures like raising the retirement age don’t deprive younger generations of career-building opportunities.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY KIM KYUNG-HEE [[email protected]]