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Apple set to overtake Samsung in smartphone shipments, research firm says

Published: 26 Nov. 2025, 10:46

The iPhone 17 Pro is displayed during an announcement of new products at Apple Park on Sept. 9 in Cupertino, California. [AP/YONHAP]

Apple is poised to overtake Samsung Electronics as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time in 14 years, according to a projection from market researcher Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint expects Apple to take a 19.4 percent share of global smartphone shipments this year, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. It estimates iPhone shipments will grow 10 percent in 2025 while Samsung’s Galaxy devices will grow 4.6 percent.

Apple has kept the top spot in revenue for years, but it has not surpassed Samsung in shipments since 2011. Analysts say the gap narrows because Apple focuses on high-end models, while Samsung releases devices across a wide price range.

The iPhone 17 series, released in September, has sold well in the United States, China and emerging markets. The report says iPhone sales improved in China and other developing markets because the cooling of U.S.-China trade tensions and the weaker dollar boosted purchases.

"Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point," said Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang.

"Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase," he added.

Wang expects Apple to keep the top position through 2029. The forecast is based on expectations that Apple will introduce a foldable iPhone and a lower-priced model, the iPhone 17e.

Counterpoint projects that the global smartphone market will grow 3.3 percent this year.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY JEONG HYE-JEONG [[email protected]]