Experts warn that Korea may be unable to remain neutral in Japan and China's dispute for long
Published: 23 Nov. 2025, 17:25
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ahead of their meeting in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, on Oct. 31. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
Korea may be keeping its distance from the conflict between Japan and China, but experts warn that its neutrality may not keep it safe or be possible for long.
Though China has escalated pressure on Japan — and by extension, neighboring countries like Korea — Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has not retracted her remarks suggesting that Tokyo may intervene in the event of a Taiwan contingency, and has both domestic and U.S. support.
“China had long been looking for a pretext to pressure Japan over its closeness with the United States, and this issue provided the country with a clear opportunity,” a diplomatic source said on Sunday. Chinese Consul General in Osaka Xue Jian’s controversial comment — “[China] will have to cut off [Japan's] head” — is seen as part of a premeditated hard-line response strategy coordinated by Beijing.
On Oct. 31, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, Takaichi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The next day, she met Lin Hsin-i, Taiwan's senior presidential adviser, and posted about it on social media — a move widely seen as a counter to Beijing.
Then, on Nov. 7, she said during a session of the House of Representatives' Budget Committee that a Taiwan Strait emergency “could constitute a crisis threatening Japan's survival.”
China has retaliated with a flurry of restrictions, including a ban on seafood imports from Japan, traveling and studying in Japan, and Japanese film screenings. State-run media have also launched daily attacks. Observers warn that China may even limit exports of rare earth materials, as it has done in past disputes. Japan has yet to issue any clear countermeasures.
“It seems as though Prime Minister Takaichi likely didn’t anticipate that her remarks would trigger such a major diplomatic flare-up, as they were intended for domestic political gain,” said Kim Jin-ho, a professor of political science and international relations at Dankook University. “In contrast, China appears to be acting out a prewritten script for a hard-line offensive.”
![Liu Jinsong, right, the director-general of China’s Foreign Ministry, and Masaaki Kanai, the director-general of Japan’s Foreign Ministry, meet in Beijing on Nov. 18, as seen in this screen capture from a video uploaded to Yuyan Tan Tian on the same day. [SCREEN CAPTURE]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/11/23/36ac1775-7323-4771-a667-6a0a0ad6907a.jpg)
Liu Jinsong, right, the director-general of China’s Foreign Ministry, and Masaaki Kanai, the director-general of Japan’s Foreign Ministry, meet in Beijing on Nov. 18, as seen in this screen capture from a video uploaded to Yuyan Tan Tian on the same day. [SCREEN CAPTURE]
Kim also noted a shift in China’s regional strategy: “In the past, China often targeted Korea — seen as the ‘weak link’ in the Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance — first. This time, it has chosen Japan, the ‘center link,’ as its initial target. The move may be to send a warning to all U.S. allies in the region.”
Takaichi’s cabinet maintains strong domestic support, with approval ratings above 80 percent, according to Japanese media. Despite the diplomatic blowback, there is little political incentive for her to walk back her remarks. She even reiterated her position on Friday, saying, “Whether a situation constitutes a threat to national survival will be determined comprehensively by the government based on its specifics.”
The Korean government has repeatedly stated that it “refrains from commenting on the diplomatic relations of other countries,” but analysts warn that the issue is not a distant one.
Taiwan has become a recurring item in Korea-U. S. and Korea-U.S.-Japan discussions led by Washington. In September, a joint statement from the foreign ministers of the three countries expressed support for Taiwan's “meaningful participation” in appropriate international organizations. The United States has recently reaffirmed its commitment to Japan’s defense, including the Senkaku Islands — known in China as the Diaoyu Islands — and condemned China’s seafood ban as economic “coercion.”
Backed by the United States, Japan appears to be taking the lead on Taiwan, which means Korea may find itself increasingly pressured to take a stance if the standoff drags on.
![President Lee Jae Myung, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands ahead of their summit at the Gyeongju National Museum in North Gyeongsang on Oct. 29. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/11/23/bd217013-dd92-4549-be94-a11f28bd0bdb.jpg)
President Lee Jae Myung, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands ahead of their summit at the Gyeongju National Museum in North Gyeongsang on Oct. 29. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]
Observers note that the Lee Jae Myung administration has recently leaned more toward the United States diplomatically. The joint fact sheet, released after the Korea-U.S. summit on Oct. 29, includes statements opposing “unilateral changes to the status quo” across the Taiwan Strait and granted Korea the green light to build nuclear-propelled submarines — both issues sensitive to China. It also opened the door for Korea to build U.S. military vessels domestically.
So far, China’s reaction has been relatively muted, calling for “compliance with nonproliferation obligations” and urging “prudence” on these issues. This suggests that Beijing is currently focused on its standoff with Japan and is reluctant to broaden the conflict. But that could change swiftly if Korea accelerates nuclear-propelled submarine or warship development.
In fact, on Nov. 13 — after the China-Japan dispute had intensified — Chinese Ambassador to Korea Dai Bing issued a warning during a press roundtable, saying that Korea and the United States should “not play with fire” over Taiwan, despite Korea not being involved at the time.
But for now, the Korean government is trying to keep its distance from the increasingly polarized dynamics. “For Korea, siding with either bloc would come at a cost later,” said Lee Wang-hwi, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Ajou University. “The safest path is to maintain the current Korea-U. S. and Korea-U.S.-Japan framework while emphasizing its role as a mediator for peace and stability in Northeast Asia.”
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY PARK HYUN-JU [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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