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Seoul's 'ambitious' zero-emissions vehicle plan leaves automakers with zero optimism

Published: 26 Sep. 2025, 19:50 Updated: 26 Sep. 2025, 20:24

Vehicles move on the northbound, left, and southbound lanes near the Jamwon Interchange on the Gyeongbu Expressway in Seocho District, southern Seoul, on Aug. 17. [YONHAP]

Korea’s auto industry is sounding the alarm over government plans to accelerate the prevalence of zero-emissions vehicles, warning the shift could weaken domestic manufacturers and boost Chinese EVs.

The debate surrounds the government’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target for the transport sector, which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by expanding the sales of zero-emissions vehicles and phasing out internal combustion engines.

A coalition representing 11 auto industry groups held an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the government’s proposed 2035 NDC plan.

Association Chairman Kang Nam-hoon said the government’s targets are overly ambitious and could lead to “stricter carbon dioxide regulations, mandatory sales quotas and heavier regulatory burdens,” adding that such measures would “accelerate the erosion of the domestic market by Chinese EVs.”

The meeting brought together key industry players, including the Korea Automobile & Mobility Association, the Korea Auto Industries Cooperative Association (KAICA), the Korea Automotive Parts Industry Promotion, the Korea Automotive Technology Institute (KATECH) and the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers.

Debate over emission targets

Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan speaks during a public forum on the transportation sector’s contribution to achieving the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution goal at Kia Autoland in Gwangmyeong, Gyeonggi, on Sept. 24. [MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT]

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit updated NDCs every five years, outlining how they will reduce emissions over the next decade. The Ministry of Environment recently argued that slashing the share of gas-powered vehicles is essential to meet Korea’s 2035 goals.

At a public forum held at Kia’s Gwangmyeong EV plant in Gyeonggi on Wednesday, the ministry unveiled four reduction scenarios that would cut transport-sector emissions by 48, 53, 61 or 65 percent from 2018 levels by 2035.

To achieve the 61 and 65 percent reduction scenarios, the ministry said at least 35 percent of all vehicles would have to be zero-emissions, such as electric and hydrogen-powered models, while restrictions on the sales of combustion engine vehicles may also be needed.

At a similar forum on Sept. 19, Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan said “the government should consider ending internal combustion engine sales by 2035 or 2040.”

According to the auto coalition, reaching even the most modest target — a 48 percent reduction — would require at least 8.4 million zero-emissions vehicles on the road by 2035, accounting for 30 percent of an estimated 28 million registered vehicles. More ambitious targets would demand 9.5 to 9.8 million EVs and hydrogen cars, or roughly 34 to 35 percent of total vehicles.

The group said these figures are far beyond what is feasible. “To meet the 8.4 million target, over 90 percent of new car sales in 2035 would need to be zero-emissions models. To reach 9.8 million, every single new vehicle would have to be electric or hydrogen-powered,” the association said.

Industry warns of disruption

A coalition of 11 auto industry groups gather for an emergency meeting to discuss Korea's 2035 NDC target on Sept. 26 in this photo provided by the association. [KAIA]

That goal stands in stark contrast to current realities. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Korea had 26.29 million registered vehicles as of the end of last year, but only 722,214 — or 2.74 percent — were zero-emissions models. The Environment Ministry aims to raise that share to at least 30 to 35 percent by 2035.

The auto industry fears that such an abrupt policy shift would cripple the existing supply chain and open the market to foreign competitors. Participants at Friday’s meeting stressed that “EV adoption is not just a question of climate policy but one of industrial survival.”

Imported EVs already account for a growing share of Korea’s market — from 16 percent of passenger EVs in 2015 to 40.4 percent this year, according to industry data. Chinese brands, which had no presence a decade ago, now make up 25.9 percent of imports.

Parts suppliers are also voicing alarm. KAICA Chairman Lee Taek-sung said a full transition to electric components within a decade would threaten the survival of small- and medium-sized companies, which make up 95.6 percent of the sector. Only 15 to 18 percent currently produce components for environmentally friendly vehicles, according to industry data.

Tensions worldwide

The clash between climate goals and industrial realities is not unique to Korea. In 2023, the European Union passed a law banning sales of new conventionally powered vehicles from 2035, effectively requiring all new cars and light commercial vehicles to be zero-emission.

German automakers have pushed back. The German Association of the Automotive Industry and IG Metall put out a statement earlier this month arguing that "the 2035 target is no longer achievable" and calling for "a pragmatic approach to hybrid technologies and renewable fuels."

In the United States, California also plans a sales phaseout by 2035. But U.S. President Donald Trump has reversed several EV-friendly policies, scrapping tax credits and fuel economy penalties.

Academics and researchers say Korea must pursue a more diversified path.

Lee Hang-gu, an adviser at KATECH, said the government’s targets are ambitious but added that electrification is unavoidable, urging the industry to treat it as a strategic imperative.

“Even with full effort, we could still lose ground to China,” Lee warned. “Carmakers and suppliers must prepare for restructuring through selection and concentration.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY LEE SU-JEONG [[email protected]]