Experts discuss implications of Lee-Trump summit at JoongAng-CSIS Forum

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Experts discuss implications of Lee-Trump summit at JoongAng-CSIS Forum

Published: 26 Aug. 2025, 18:01 Updated: 26 Aug. 2025, 19:12

MICHAEL LEE
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Hours after South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, officials and experts gathered at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul on Tuesday to discuss what their summit revealed — and what it left unsaid — about the future of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

The 14th JoongAng-CSIS Forum, co-hosted by the JoongAng Ilbo and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), quickly turned into a broader debate over the credibility of U.S. security commitments, the shifting balance of power in Asia and other pressures on the partnership between Seoul and Washington.

From left: former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) President John Hamre, former South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Song Min-soon, former South Korean National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han and former National Diplomatic Academy Chancellor Hong Hyun-ik speak at the 14th JoongAng-CSIS Forum at the Shilla Hotel in Jung District, central Seoul, on Aug. 28. [KIM JONG-HO]

In his welcoming remarks, JoongAng Holdings Chairman Hong Seok-hyun said Trump’s second term represents not just a continuation of his “America First” agenda from his first term, but a push to remake the world order to serve Washington’s interests.

He also warned that “the Asia we are living in is a field for competition,” adding that Trump’s instincts — skepticism of international institutions, withdrawal from agreements and reliance on hard power — pose challenges for South Korea, which has depended on American security guarantees for more than 70 years.

Deterrence, dialogue and North Korea

Few issues consumed more attention at the forum than how to balance deterrence and diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula.

JoongAng Holdings Chairman Hong Seok-hyun delivers the opening remarks for the 14th JoongAng-CSIS Forum at the Shilla Hotel in Jung District, central Seoul, on Aug. 26. [JEON MIN-KYU]

“Peace is cheaper than war,” said former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, echoing Lee’s main argument about the need to lower inter-Korean tensions. But Mattis noted that “deterrence is also cheaper than war” as he tied the peninsula’s future to broader geopolitical struggles, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan. He criticized China’s increasingly aggressive posture in the South China Sea, arguing that democracies must unite to defend the rule of international law.

Mattis also commended Lee for meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba before his summit with Trump. Repeating the mantra “allies, allies, allies,” he underscored that joint deterrence depends on seamless coordination among democracies — particularly among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, who represented the Korean government at Tuesday’s forum, described the two presidents’ meeting as a potential “historic turning point” in the deep freeze of inter-Korean relations. He praised Trump’s support for Lee’s pursuit of lower tensions with North Korea and an end to the decades-long cycle of division and hostility on the peninsula.

Yet doubts lingered. Some participants suggested that Washington under Trump might recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear power in direct talks, thereby undermining South Korea’s goal of instituting weapons controls and eventually denuclearizing the North.

Others, such as Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, warned that talks between the United States and North Korea should proceed from “credible” proposals that all parties could realistically accept.

CSIS President John Hamre also warned South Korea and the United States against “proposing the same solutions for the same problem” posed by the North’s nuclear weapons program and “yet hoping for a different outcome.”

Alliance at a crossroads

The forum repeatedly circled back to one theme: how the U.S.-Korea alliance should adapt to shifting realities.

Hamre said the partners must define what a credible U.S. defense commitment actually looks like. “We need a visible deterrence strategy,” he said, “not just words of reassurance.”

Former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, left, talks to former U.S. National Intelligence Officer Sydney Seiler during the 14th JoongAng-CSIS Forum at the Shilla Hotel in Jung District, central Seoul, on Aug. 26. [KIM JONG-HO]

The debate over “strategic flexibility” — whether American forces in Korea might be deployed to other contingencies in the region — underscored differences between the allies regarding the mission of the U.S. military presence. Some argued that flexibility is necessary to counter China with an Indo-Pacific posture, while others warned that it risks entangling South Korea in conflicts outside the peninsula.

Former South Korean National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han said Lee had skillfully navigated U.S. demands to “modernize” and reorient the alliance against China. Despite being characterized as a politician friendly to Beijing, Lee nonetheless won Trump’s support to keep the U.S. security commitment to South Korea intact while leaving space for engagement with China, according to Kim.

Hong Hyun-ik, who previously headed South Korea’s National Diplomatic Academy, said Lee’s biggest achievement during the summit was eliciting U.S. support for Seoul’s pursuit of better relations with Beijing.

For South Korea, he suggested, the challenge will be to avoid “appearing as an adversary to China” even while strengthening defense cooperation with the United States.

Trade friction

Even as participants emphasized progress on security, they noted that trade disputes and economic issues could again strain the alliance.

South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young delivers congratulatory remarks for the 14th JoongAng-CSIS Forum at the Shilla Hotel in Jung District, central Seoul, on Aug. 26. [JEON MIN-KYU]

Choi Seok-young, South Korea’s former representative to the United Nations in Geneva, said Seoul had lost earlier advantages on auto tariffs and could face setbacks in agriculture. He urged that the Korea-U.S. FTA be updated to cover artificial intelligence, technology and other emerging industries.

Adam Farrar, senior geoeconomics analyst for the Asia-Pacific at Bloomberg Economics, cautioned that Trump’s preference for tariffs as a policy tool remains unchanged and could negatively affect key South Korean exports, such as semiconductors.

“Trump still favors tariffs as a solution for trade imbalances or to influence other countries’ behavior,” he said.

Favorable optics

If concrete outcomes from the Trump-Lee summit remain uncertain, the optics were judged to be largely positive.

CSIS Korea chair Victor Cha said Lee’s government is likely viewing the summit as a success. “They dodged a bullet,” he said, noting Trump’s often unpredictable tone. Cha said Lee impressed observers by leaning in — literally and figuratively — during meetings with Trump, striking a confident posture that previous foreign leaders often lacked in the Oval Office.

Cha also argued that Lee succeeded in drawing Trump into a dialogue about reengaging Pyongyang by appealing to the U.S. president’s instincts for peacebuilding and dealmaking, while sidestepping potential disputes over accusations levied by Trump against Seoul via Truth Social hours before their meeting.

Philip Goldberg, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, on the other hand, said the summit produced “little of actual substance” but acknowledged that the atmospherics were positive and that “much of the real work may have happened in private.” He pointed to Lee’s summit with Ishiba as a “right step to ensure the table would be set for a good trilateral relationship.”

A shaky reassurance

By the forum’s close, the consensus was that the summit had stabilized the alliance, at least temporarily. Lee reassured Washington of Korea’s reliance on U.S. deterrence and demonstrated personal goodwill toward Trump, while the U.S. president avoided threats of troop withdrawals or tariff demands that many in Seoul had anticipated.

But lingering doubts remained about the credibility of U.S. commitments, the chances of future engagement with North Korea and unresolved disputes over trade and cost-sharing.

As Hamre put it, “There are many reasons why Koreans would be worried about America’s deterrence commitment. We can’t ask them to just trust us.”

For South Korea, that means navigating an increasingly turbulent order — balancing its security dependence on Washington with economic exposure to Beijing, and asserting itself as more than just a regional power.

“South Korea is bigger than the peninsula,” Hamre said. “It should be a global leader.”

BY MICHAEL LEE [[email protected]]