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Lee, Trump may discuss U.S. troop cut, Opcon transfer as part of 'alliance modernization' in summit: Expert

Published: 21 Aug. 2025, 09:10 Updated: 21 Aug. 2025, 16:10

A helicopter maneuvers at Camp Humphreys, a U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Aug. 12. [NEWS1]

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump may discuss a U.S. ground troop cut in Korea and the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) to Seoul as part of the two countries' efforts to "modernize" the alliance during their summit next week, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.

During a press briefing on the White House summit set for Monday, Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also raised the possibility of North Korea conducting provocations in connection to the summit and the allies' ongoing military exercise.

Lee and Trump are set to have their first in-person meeting since Lee took office in June as Washington is pushing to rework the alliance under the name of "modernization" at a time when it focuses on deterring the "pacing threat" from an increasingly assertive China.

Alliance modernization "refers to potential changes in the U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula that could include the reduction in ground troops, enhancement of air and naval capabilities, greater South Korean defense spending, changes in the cost-sharing arrangement [and the] return of wartime operational control," Cha said during the online briefing.

His remarks came amid speculation that the Trump administration might seek to reshape the 28,500-strong United States Forces Korea (USFK) to ensure that it can be mobilized for contingencies outside Korea, including those related to China — a move further from USFK's traditional focus on deterring North Korea.

A ground troop reduction in the Army-centric USFK has also been seen as a possibility, as the United States apparently sees naval and air force components as more fit for potential operations outside the Korean Peninsula.

The alliance modernization efforts have proceeded as the Lee administration is expected to pursue the retaking of wartime Opcon within its five-year term — a goal that some observers say might fall in line with the Trump administration's push for allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense.

Seoul and Washington have been working on the "conditions-based" Opcon transfer. Conditions include South Korea's capabilities to lead combined Korea-U.S. forces, its strike and air defense capabilities, and a regional security environment conducive to such a handover.

Col. Ryan Donald, public affairs director of the United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and United States Forces Korea attends a press briefing for the Ulchi Freedom Shield 2025 exercise at the Defense Ministry in central Seoul on Aug. 7. [AP/YONHAP]

South Korea handed over operational control of its troops to the U.S.-led UN Command during the 1950-53 Korean War. Control was then transferred to the two allies' Combined Forces Command when the command was launched in 1978. Wartime operational control still remains in U.S. hands while South Korea retook peacetime Opcon in 1994.

Next week's summit between the two leaders will come in the midst of the allies' military exercise, called Ulchi Freedom Shield. Pyongyang has already responded angrily to the exercise, which it has long criticized as a war rehearsal against it.

In light of the North's angry response, Cha said the likelihood of Pyongyang's military action cannot be ruled out.

"I don't think we can rule out some sort of North Korean action next week. This is because three things come together next week," he said. "One is, of course, the summit meeting. The second is ongoing U.S.-ROK military exercises ... And the third is the lack of any contact or diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea."

ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

The combination of three things does not bode well, Cha underscored, citing CSIS empirical research.

"It usually results in some not insignificant North Korean belligerence, which could come in the form of missile tests or even a nuclear test ... We just don't know," he said.

During the briefing, Sydney Seiler, a former intelligence officer at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, also noted the chances that Pyongyang could engage in some type of "muscle flexing."

"It's always important to remember [the North's] million-man Korean People's Army is in the middle of its summer training cycle," he said.

"Additional muscle-flexing launches of missiles, maybe artillery fire demonstrations, probably not anything lethal or kinetic," he said.

Cha also noted that in preparation for the summit with Lee, U.S. defense officials may want to see more "explicit" South Korean commitments when it comes to contingencies with China, though their suggestion might be different from what Trump may want to talk about at the summit.

An F-16 fighter jet lands at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Aug. 18 as the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise takes place. [NEWS1]

Ahead of the White House meeting, Lee plans to visit Japan on Saturday and Sunday for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Katrin Katz, an adjunct fellow at the CSIS Korea Chair office, warned Seoul and Tokyo not to unify against Trump regarding ongoing trade and security negotiations.

"I would expect that behind closed doors, they might be trading notes in these areas, but I just don't see it as in those leaders' interests to publicly frame their engagement in a kind of ganging-up way vis-a-vis President Trump," she said, referring to the planned meeting between Lee and Ishiba.

Yonhap