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USFK's future on the line at upcoming Trump-Lee summit

Published: 03 Aug. 2025, 19:00 Updated: 03 Aug. 2025, 19:25

Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, left, meets with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the U.S. State Department on July 31 in Washington. [AFP/YONHAP]

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun returned to Seoul on Sunday after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, senior White House officials and congressional leaders, likely moving forward key agenda items for a summit between President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump later this month.

The two heads are expected to discuss major defense issues, including the future of United States Forces Korea (USFK) and Korea's participation in U.S. efforts to deter China, which would touch on a significant foundation of the Korea-U.S. alliance that stems back to 1953.

Also at the center of the summit agenda is narrowing the gap between Washington’s demand for “alliance modernization” and the Lee administration’s envisioned “end state” for the alliance.

Shortly after the two countries reached a tariff deal on Thursday, Seoul opened discussions on alliance modernization, including the role of USFK. The topic featured prominently in Thursday's during talks between Korea and the United States.

A senior government official said, “There may be changes to the role and character of USFK.”

When U.S. officials talk about “modernizing the alliance,” they are referring to strategic flexibility — that is, shifting the role of USFK toward countering China. The Korean government has so far deliberately avoided using that term.

The timing stands out because a senior U.S. official reportedly conveyed the position to Seoul during summit preparations — an indication that Trump may raise the issue of alliance modernization directly with Lee.

Helicopters sit on the tarmac at Camp Humphreys, a U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on July 16. [NEWS1]

At the heart of alliance modernization lies the recalibration of USFK's role.

Observers say Washington may seek to either revise the current cap of 28,500 troops — set this year under the National Defense Authorization Act — or expand the forces’ mission beyond the Korean Peninsula, deviating from the unit-specific operational roles currently outlined under the Korea–U.S. joint command structure.

If reductions occur, the most likely scenario would be for Washington to withhold rotational deployments, such as the Stryker brigade. The 28,500-troop cap has remained unchanged since 2006 under the George W. Bush administration.

“The South Korea-U.S alliance began primarily as a deterrent against North Korea,” said Kim Jung-sup, senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute. “But recently, South Korea has taken the lead on North Korea policy while the alliance’s weight has shifted toward deterring China through USFK. Expanding the mission against China without limits would be problematic. South Korea must clearly define its red lines.”

An Apache helicopter stands by at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on July 9. [YONHAP]

As U.S. troop realignment is tied to Washington’s China strategy, observers expect Trump to press Lee on whether Seoul will make the alliance a central pillar of that effort. Washington’s push could also extend to the so-called MASGA — Make America Shilpbuilding Great Again — initiative. Lee’s response will likely shape the alliance’s envisioned “end state.”

Article IV of the 1953 South Korea-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty allows the United States to “dispose United States land, air and sea forces in and about the territory” of South Korea through a mutual agreement, giving Washington room to interpret the scope of its troop deployments more broadly.

Article III also states that both sides shall act to meet the “common danger” in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific, outlining a joint commitment to collective defense of the region. The Trump administration could use this framework to argue that the alliance should jointly respond to potential U.S.-China conflicts in the Pacific.
Washington’s push to broaden the alliance’s scope is not limited to the Korean Peninsula.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on July 21 that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “extends to armed attacks on our armed forces, aircraft or public vessels, including our Coast Guard, anywhere in the Pacific, including the South China Sea.”

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, right, stands with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. during an honor cordon ceremony at the Pentagon on July 21 in Washington. [AP/YONHAP]

Washington rejected Seoul’s proposed “package deal” that linked trade and defense during the recent tariff talks and now appears poised to present additional demands during the summit. These may include increased defense cost-sharing or a revival of debates from Trump’s first term over joint military exercise expenses.

Trump has previously shown a tendency to view South Korea as a target for increased defense cost-sharing. With the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercise scheduled for August, observers say he may link the issue of security expenses to the summit agenda.

North Korea, meanwhile, criticized the upcoming joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises and also denounced trilateral drills involving Japan.

“To secure peace on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, the reckless military activities of the United States, Japan and South Korea must stop,” the state-run Rodong Sinmun wrote on Saturday, warning that “even a minor incident could easily escalate into a full-scale war.”

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY PARK HYUN-JU, LEE YU-JUNG [[email protected]]