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U.S. think tank proposes slashing USFK troop level to about 10,000 from 28,500

Published: 10 Jul. 2025, 09:27

A soldier from the U.S. Army’s 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, salutes during a rotation brigade transfer of authority ceremony at Camp Casey in Dongducheon, Gyeonggi, on June 18. [YONHAP]

A U.S. think tank recommended a reduction of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troop level to about 10,000 from the current 28,500 in a report released Wednesday, amid speculation that the Pentagon might weigh the idea of a troop drawdown on the Korean Peninsula to prioritize deterring Chinese threats.

Defense Priorities, a Washington-based institution, released the report, titled "Aligning global military posture with U.S. interests," saying that the U.S. troop presence should be reduced even further if Seoul limits the U.S. ability to use USFK assets to address other regional security crises outside the peninsula.

The report was written by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at the think tank, and Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The think tank recommended cutting all ground combat units not tied to base security from South Korea, along with Army signal, intelligence and headquarters units, and some of their associated support and sustainment units — a reduction that would remove most of the 2nd Infantry Division from Korea, including the rotational brigade combat team and Army combat aviation units.

It also said that the United States should cut airpower based in Korea, moving two fighter squadrons from U.S. bases in South Korea back to the United States and that about a third of air maintenance and other support units and personnel can also be returned stateside.

"In total, this would reduce the total U.S. military presence in South Korea by more than 50 percent, leaving about 10,000 personnel along with two fighter squadrons (including a larger super squadron) and support forces.

"The ground personnel left would be primarily for support, sustainment, logistics and maintenance, leaving the responsibility for combat operations in the event of any crisis on the peninsula to South Korean forces."

The think tank called for the troop reduction, arguing that Seoul has not offered the United States "unrestricted contingency access" to use its bases for operations elsewhere in the theater during a conflict.

The Korean flag and the American flag stand side by side during a rotation brigade transfer of authority ceremony at Camp Casey in Dongducheon, Gyeonggi on June 18. [YONHAP]

"(U.S.) forces left in South Korea might be sidelined in the event of a regional war," the report noted.

Kavanagh, one of the authors, told Yonhap News Agency that the report has been shared widely in Washington, and the authors hope to discuss it with Trump administration officials.

Making the recommendation for a troop reduction, the authors said that the U.S. military posture in East Asia should be realigned to focus on balancing Chinese power and protecting U.S. interests, while calling for moving U.S. forces away from the Chinese coast and shifting more front line defense responsibilities to allies, including Japan and the Philippines.

They also underscored the need to focus a U.S. global military posture review on four priorities: defending the homeland, preventing the rise of a rival regional hegemon in key areas, burden shifting to allies and partners and protecting U.S. economic security.

The report noted that while China does not yet have a path to regional hegemony, the Asian superpower has "enough power to prevent the U.S. from sustaining sole regional dominance."

"The United States should make posture decisions that bolster its ability to balance the power of regional rivals, in particular China," it said. "This might include reinforcing the U.S. military presence at strategic locations such as in Japan, along the second island chain in Asia, or at key maritime choke points in the Middle East or Northern Europe."

It also called on the United States to shift its current defense burdens to allies and keep U.S. forces "only where they are required to guarantee and protect U.S. interests."

"The United States does not need for allies to step up before pulling back but it should offer allies clear and transparent timelines for U.S. retrenchment. What and how much burden shifting occurs may vary by region," it said.

A U.S. RC-12X Guardrail reconnaissance aircraft takes off from Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi on May 23. [NEWS1]

Last month, Ambassador Matthew Whitaker, U.S. permanent representative to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said that the United States' global force posture review is expected to be completed in late summer or early fall.

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby is expected to play a key role in reshaping the U.S. force posture and missions.

During an interview with Yonhap News Agency in May last year, Colby advocated for an adjustment of USFK's role to focus more on threats from China rather than "being held hostage" to countering North Korean challenges.

He also stressed the need for South Korea to undertake "overwhelming" responsibility for its own defense, while saying that if the United States gets heavily involved in a war with North Korea, it would be a "perfect distraction" when America should prioritize countering Chinese threats.

In May, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is weighing the idea of pulling out roughly 4,500 troops from South Korea and moving them to other locations in the Indo-Pacific, including Guam.

The Pentagon dismissed the report as "not true," reaffirming that America remains "fully" committed to the defense of South Korea.

Yonhap