Korea's population could shrink to 7.5 million in 100 years, think tank says

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Korea's population could shrink to 7.5 million in 100 years, think tank says

Published: 08 Jul. 2025, 17:46 Updated: 08 Jul. 2025, 18:51

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

A nurse takes care of a newborn at Korea University Guro Hospital in western Seoul on May 28. [NEWS1]

If Korea’s ultralow birthrate remains unchanged, the country’s population could shrink to a mere fraction of its current size — just 15 percent — within the next 100 years, a new demographic projection warns.

The Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, a private think tank focused on long-term population trends, said last week it will release a report later this month forecasting the nation’s population through 2125. While official government projections typically cover 50 years — currently 2022 to 2072 — the institute extended its forecast another half-century using a standard “cohort component method,” which models changes in population based on birth, death and migration rates.

The report draws on Statistics Korea's projections for birthrates through 2072 and then applies three scenarios for the years beyond: a low scenario of 0.82 births per woman, a medium scenario of 1.08 and a high scenario of 1.34. Statistics Korea estimates fertility will average 1.08 from 2049 to 2072.

Under the most severe scenario, Korea’s population would decline to just 7.53 million by 2125 — 14.6 percent of the current population of 51.68 million — fewer people than the current population of Seoul at 9.33 million.

A nurse looks after a premature baby at a neonatal intensive care unit at Chungnam National University Sejong Hospital [CHUNGNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY SEJONG HOSPITAL]

The medium scenario projects a population of 11.15 million, below Gyeonggi’s current 13.7 million. Even under the most optimistic high-fertility scenario, the population would reach only 15.73 million — less than a third of today’s figure.

“Unless fertility rates dramatically rebound or the country accepts immigrants on a massive scale, this is what Korea will look like in 100 years,” wrote Kye Bong-oh, a sociology professor at Kookmin University, in a foreword to the report.

A key concern is that population decline will accelerate. Under the medium scenario, the population will shrink by 30 percent by 2075 and more than halve by 2125. With each generation producing fewer children, there will be fewer people to have children in the next — creating a compounding cycle of decline.

Visitors examine childcare products at the 42nd Daegu Baby & Kids Fair at Exco in Buk District, Daegu, on Nov. 7, 2024. [YONHAP]

As a result, the population pyramid, currently shaped like a wide-bodied ray due to the growing senior population, will resemble a narrow “cobra” by 2125, with shrinkage across all age groups. “Such a sharp demographic contraction will cause a wide range of social, economic and cultural challenges,” Kye warned.

The report also forecasts a sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio — the number of seniors supported by the working-age population — as aging accelerates alongside population decline.

In the low scenario, by 2085, every 100 working-age Koreans, aged 15 to 64, will need to support 165 people aged 65 and older. In the medium and high scenarios, the peak will come in 2080, with 133 and 108 older dependents per 100 workers, respectively — a full-fledged “inverted pyramid” society.

Currently, 100 workers support 30 seniors. Even under the most favorable scenario, the burden would more than triple. The dependency ratio is projected to stabilize after peaking. “If we’re paying 100,000 won ($73.60) per month now to support one older person, we could be paying 300,000 to 500,000 won in 100 years,” Kye said.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY CHAE HYE-SEON [[email protected]]