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The only exit for the embattled Lee Jae-myung: A constitutional amendment

Published: 03 Mar. 2025, 00:00

Lee Ha-kyung

Lee Ha-kyung
The author is a senior columnist of the JoongAng Ilbo.

Former People Power Party Chairman Han Dong-hoon wrote in his book “The People Come First” that “a significant number of lawmakers who have shared drinks with the president have heard him casually vent his frustrations about martial law.” National Assembly Secretary General Kim Min-ki, starting last August, reportedly said, “We need to prepare for martial law,” and began drafting a manual. Following the Dec. 3 martial law declaration, as soldiers swarmed the National Assembly, he immediately ordered the closure of the electrical room to prevent a power cut. Confirming that the soldiers had not affixed bayonets, he took the lead in blocking their entry to the main chamber.

Despite widespread rumors of an impending martial law declaration, the press failed to take notice. Shame on us, indeed.

From the moment martial law was imposed until the early morning of next day, a high-level economic meeting of the nation's top four financial officials, dubbed the “F4 Meeting,” convened. The won had already plummeted in after-hours trading. A crucial decision had to be made — should the stock market open? Some argued for closure due to expected extreme volatility, while others warned that doing so would send alarming signals to foreign investors. Ultimately, the market remained open. A catastrophic “Korea exit” of foreign capital was narrowly avoided. Every day since Dec. 3 has been a tightrope walk.

The fate of President Yoon Suk-yeol will be decided by mid-March. While Korea remains embroiled in an internal feud over the reckoning of an erratic head of state, the world is bracing for the Trump administration, entering a new era of economic warfare to safeguard national interests. Trump is pushing for a unilateral peace deal in Ukraine that heavily favors Russia, completely sidelining European allies who have fought alongside Kyiv for three years. He has mocked the weakened European Union, calling it “an entity created to leech off America.” It is an utter humiliation for the continent that gave birth to the United States. Meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, he coldly remarked, “You should learn to be more grateful.”

In the face of such upheaval, Germany has rallied in unity. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the victorious Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the February elections, declared, “America no longer cares about Europe's fate.” He has since joined forces with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) to negotiate a grand coalition, agreeing to raise the national debt ceiling and increase defense spending.

Japan, having anticipated Trump’s return a year in advance, meticulously prepared under the guidance of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s diplomatic strategists. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba successfully navigated his first summit with Trump. Meanwhile, Korea is scrambling as it faces impending U.S. tariffs on semiconductors and automobiles — industries that form the backbone of its economy. The optimal approach would be to leverage defense and shipbuilding cooperation to gain Trump's favor. However, acting President Choi Sang-mok has yet to even secure a phone call with Washington. There is no exit in sight from Korea's diplomatic isolation — a price paid for the reckless and unconstitutional martial law debacle.

With the drunken madman off the stage, the spotlight now shifts to Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party, who once thrived in a symbiotic rivalry with Yoon. Critics say he is dangerously ambitious, ruthless in pursuit of his own interests. This perception has kept his approval ratings stagnant in the low 30s despite overwhelming public sentiment in favor of a change in government.

Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung chants "manse" (hurrah) during the "National Rally Calling for the Impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol to End Rebellion and Protect Democratic Constitutionalism," jointly organized by five opposition parties at the Anguk-dong in Jongno District, central Seoul, on March 1. From left in the front row are Progressive Party Chairperson Kim Jae-yeon, Lee, and DP Floor Leader Park Chan-dae.[Yonhap]

Even if Lee is sentenced to disqualification from running for office in his second trial on March 26, he will still contest the presidential election. Should he win, the nation will be bitterly divided over the interpretation of Article 84 of the Constitution, which grants sitting presidents immunity from prosecution. While some argue that his trial would be suspended during his presidency, opposing views remain strong. If the Supreme Court were to continue the trial and convict him, he would have to step down immediately. What would the world think of a country that disqualifies two presidents in the span of mere months? A British research institute has already downgraded Korea to a “flawed democracy.” Who would trust such a nation enough to invest in it?

Alternatively, the Supreme Court might defer the trial until after his presidency, triggering massive protests from those who refuse to accept a “criminal president.” Political paralysis would ensue.

The wisest course of action would be for Lee to abandon his candidacy if he is handed a disqualifying sentence. But he is most likely to charge ahead without hesitation. Public opinion will not be kind to a man accused of multiple criminal charges who still seeks the highest office. With Yoon out of the picture, Lee’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities will be laid bare.

The only real escape from this crisis is constitutional reform to decentralize presidential power. By redistributing authority to the prime minister, the National Assembly, and regional governments, he could assuage centrist and conservative fears. The negative narrative of “a criminal’s reckless ambition” could be reframed into a compelling vision of “systemic reform for the next century.” Younger generations, hungry for radical change, might resonate with this message. It could serve as a unifying point for a country torn apart.

Other presidential hopefuls have already pledged to reform the presidency. Some propose shortening the current term to three years and launching a “Seventh Republic.” If Lee alone refuses to embrace this national imperative, he risks being branded a “power-hungry autocrat.” Winning the presidency is far from guaranteed, and even if he does, his ability to wield authority will be severely constrained.

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.