Zelensky likely went public on POWs to stir South Korean support, NIS says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky likely revealed the transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea to stir support in Seoul for sending Kyiv weapons and other aid, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers Wednesday.

The spy agency gave the assessment at a closed-door plenary session of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee. Rep. Youn Kun-young of the ruling Democratic Party and Rep. Yoo Yeong-ha of the opposition People Power Party, the committee's senior members from each side, briefed reporters afterward.

"We analyze that [Zelensky] made it public in the hope that public opinion might build in South Korea in favor of providing various kinds of support, including weapons, to the Ukrainian government," the NIS said.

Ukraine set no conditions for the transfer, and the South Korean government made no promises of support in return, the agency said. Seoul began consultations with Kyiv after the two soldiers were captured on Jan. 9, 2025.

Zelensky disclosed the transfer in an address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 23. "Recently, we sent two North Korean prisoners of war to the Republic of Korea," he said in the speech, referring to the full name of South Korea.

The two sides had agreed to keep the matter secret. "We do not know whether there was an agreement between the leaders, but there was a nondisclosure agreement through several channels, including phone calls between the two countries' foreign ministers and consultations between our embassy [in Kyiv] and Ukraine's Foreign Ministry," the NIS said.

Ukraine asked for the secrecy itself. "Considering the negative impact on its prisoner exchange negotiations with Russia and on exchanges of third-country prisoners, Ukraine asked us preemptively, from the early stages of the consultations, not to disclose it," the agency said.

Seoul respected Ukraine's position and, on humanitarian grounds, maintained strict secrecy out of concern for the safety of the soldiers and their families in North Korea, the NIS said.

"The [South Korean] government expressed strong regret to the Ukrainian government on Sunday and demanded an official explanation and apology, but Ukraine has not expressed regret or apologized, officially or unofficially, to date," the agency added.

"There are no unusual movements on the Russian side regarding the transfer," the NIS also said, according to Yoo.

"The prisoners entered the country in mid-September and have no major health problems," the agency said. "We confirmed several times that they came to South Korea of their own free will."

The NIS also weighed in on a statement by Kim Yo-jong, director of North Korea's Workers' Party General Affairs Department. She called the South Korean military's finding that a North Korean mine likely caused the recent explosions in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) a "clear farce," in a statement released Tuesday, which the North's media carried on Wednesday.

The statement indicated "an intention to cut off any link to North Korea," the NIS said, according to Yoo. The agency also judged the statement to be "very low-key," Yoo said.

The NIS based that judgment partly on the fact that Kim Yo-jong, rather than the military, which usually issues such statements, put it out, Youn said.

She likened the case to the 2015 wooden box mine incident and said North Korea’s building of barriers along the border represented "only a thorough exercise of sovereignty unrelated to any military purpose."

"The 'crossing the border' of our soldiers touted by the ROK military is a deliberate and planned strained assertion to shift the responsibility for escalating tension onto the DPRK," she said, using ROK to refer to South Korea and DPRK to North Korea. "Clearly speaking, our soldiers have never crossed the border."

North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line more than 20 times in August, according to the South Korean military, which responded with warning shots.

Kim Yo-jong warned that North Korean border units would take "immediate and merciless" retaliation if South Korean troops fired on soldiers working on the barriers. She also said the North would reinforce its tactical counterattack assets in the DMZ opposite the South Korean Army's 21st Infantry Division under III Corps, which she accused of frequent provocations.

The explosions, which went off on Sept. 21 in the western sector of the DMZ, seriously injured two South Korean soldiers. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday that a mine planted by North Korean troops was very likely behind them.

On possible talks between Pyongyang and Washington, the NIS put the odds at about even.

"There is about a 50 percent chance [of talks] around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] summit," the agency said. "North Korea is also responding in a way that shows it does not want to miss this opportunity." China hosts the APEC summit in Shenzhen on Nov. 18 and 19.

"Instructions to keep quiet have gone down to North Korea's overseas missions," the NIS said. "We have obtained intelligence that front-line officials handling the United States are very busy."

The agency also read the North's recent messages to Washington as a sign it wants to keep the door open to talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. "We infer from its emphasis on the personal ties between the leaders and its restraint from directly criticizing President Trump that it does not intend to scuttle the process," the NIS said.

About 9,000 North Korean combat troops are carrying out guard operations in the Kursk border area, the NIS said. "No signs of an additional deployment have been detected so far, but we are watching closely," the agency said.

"Russia is helping modernize the North Korean military by providing modern warfare weapons technology, but it remains reluctant to transfer advanced technologies such as intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear-powered submarines," the NIS said. "A shipment of [North Korean] ballistic missiles out of the country was recently identified for the first time in a year, and we are watching it closely."

The NIS also commented on the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un."Kim Jong-un is severely obese, in the 140-kilogram [309-pound] range, and is at high risk of cardiovascular disease," the NIS said of the North Korean leader's health. "But he performs movements such as running up stairs during a destroyer inspection without difficulty, and a dedicated medical team manages him closely. We judge there are no signs of health problems."

The NIS also reported that the position of Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, as the country’s designated successor appears to be consolidating.

"She stood at the very center during the Jan. 1 visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun and appeared for the first time at Victory Day [July 27] events and at a memorial for revolutionary martyrs on Liberation Day [Aug. 15]," the NIS said. "With the level of protocol and attendance elevated, her position as successor-designate is being strengthened."

"Kim Ju-ae's activities had focused on military-related areas, but they have recently expanded into areas such as people's livelihoods, politics and diplomacy," the agency said. "She has made 30 appearances this year, the most ever."

The NIS also gave lawmakers its own profile information on Kim Ju-ae for the first time. "She is believed to be 160 centimeters [5 feet 3 inches] tall and to weigh more than 50 kilograms [110 pounds]," the agency said. "She is building a mature image by wearing women's suits and heels."

BY KWEN YU-JIN [[email protected]]