Ukraine war helped sharpen North Korean missile accuracy: Report

TOKYO — North Korean missiles used in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have become dramatically more accurate, according to a report by Japan's Kyodo News on Saturday.

“The margin of error in the missiles' landing point, which was at least 1 kilometer [0.6 miles] in 2024, had ‘narrowed to between 1 and 5 meters [3.3 and 16.4 feet]’ by April this year,” said the report, citing a Ukrainian defense intelligence official.

Kyodo News reported that the Ukrainian official suggested that “Russia had upgraded the weapons based on data gathered from their use in combat.”

Ukrainian authorities had previously assessed North Korean missiles as being of "very low” quality, saying the missiles’ hit rate was only about 20 percent during the first half of last year.

When Russian forces began using North Korean-made missiles extensively in early 2024, some missiles reportedly missed their targets by 1 to 3 kilometers and many exploded midair before reaching their intended targets.

Kyodo, citing military experts, reported that improvements to the inertial navigation system used to guide the missiles may have contributed to the increase in accuracy.

The missiles believed to have benefited from the upgrades include the KN-23, which resembles Russia's Iskander ballistic missile and has a maximum range of roughly 700 to 800 kilometers, and the KN-24, which is similar to the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System and has a maximum range of about 400 kilometers.

More than 100 of the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles have reportedly been used in the war in Ukraine, killing or injuring more than 170 Ukrainian soldiers.

The findings raise concerns that combat data gathered on the battlefield in Ukraine could help North Korea significantly improve its missile capabilities and increase security threats to neighboring countries such as South Korea and Japan.

North Korea continuously tests short-range ballistic missiles over the East Sea. 

Last April, North Korea’s Academy of Defense Sciences and its Missile General Administration claimed that they had verified the effectiveness of a KN-23 variant carrying multiple submunitions designed to strike a wider area.

The KN-23 is reportedly capable of a "pull-up,” in which the missile abruptly gains altitude before descending toward its target. Such unpredictable movements make interception more difficult for missile defense systems designed to track conventional ballistic trajectories.

If North Korea succeeds in reducing its margin of error to just a few meters, the threat of precision strikes against key targets — including military command centers, airfields, ports and ammunition depots — could increase significantly.

South Korea is building a multilayered Korea Air and Missile Defense system centered on the Patriot PAC-3, Cheongung-II and the long-range surface-to-air missile system (L-SAM).

Development of the L-SAM was completed at the end of 2024, and mass production began in 2025. The system is expected to be deployed between 2027 and 2028.

However, the upgraded L-SAM II, designed to intercept maneuvering missiles such as the KN-23 as well as hypersonic targets, is not expected to enter service until 2035. Consequently, a gap between North Korea's advancing missile capabilities and the deployment of systems designed to counter them remains.

North Korea’s developments also pose a direct threat to Japan. North Korea's short-range ballistic missiles can reach not only all of South Korea, but also parts of Japan and U.S. military bases stationed there.

Japan currently operates a missile defense network built around SM-3 interceptor missiles deployed on Aegis-equipped destroyers and ground-based Patriot PAC-3 systems. Japan is also constructing two new Aegis-equipped warships, which its government plans to commission in March 2028 and March 2029, respectively.

"North Korea's short-range ballistic missiles could potentially place all of South Korea, parts of Japan and U.S. military bases in Japan within range," Kyodo reported. "If military cooperation between Russia and North Korea continues to deepen, it could become a major security threat in East Asia."

BY YOU SEONG-UN [[email protected]]