Typhoon Saudel, bottom right, as seen by Japan’s Himawari satellite. The storm has yet to develop a fully organized typhoon structure.CIRA/NOAA
Twelve typhoons have skipped past Korea this summer. Typhoon Saudel might not, forecasters warn.
The 18th typhoon of the year formed on Wednesday and is expected to move north as it rapidly intensifies. Both the Korean and Japanese weather agencies are closely watching its path.
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said Saudel was moving west-northwest at 29 kilometers (18 miles) per hour as of 9 a.m. Thursday, located in waters roughly 780 kilometers southeast of Guam. It had a central pressure of 996 hectopascals and maximum wind speeds of 20 meters (65.6 feet) per second, placing it at Category 1, the weakest classification.
Saudel has not yet developed a fully formed typhoon structure, but is expected to strengthen rapidly as it passes over warm waters. It is forecast to grow into a Category 4 typhoon — with maximum wind speeds of 44 to 53 meters per second — by Sunday, and to approach waters roughly 500 kilometers southeast of Okinawa, Japan, by Tuesday.
The Japan Meteorological Agency warned that the typhoon may affect Okinawa and western parts of the Japanese archipelago next week.
Beyond that point, the typhoon's path remains highly uncertain. Numerical forecast models from various countries are projecting different tracks toward Korea, China and Japan. "There are large discrepancies between numerical forecast models in both the typhoon's projected path and how much it will develop," KMA forecast analyst Gong Sang-min said at a regular briefing Thursday. "We cannot yet determine the typhoon's path or its potential impact on Korea."
Predicted path of Typhoon SaudelKMA
A total of 12 typhoons have formed so far this summer, and all of them have bypassed the Korean Peninsula. Two strong typhoons — No. 13 Dolphin and No. 15 Chanhom — made landfall in China and Japan, respectively, bringing rain clouds but no direct impact on Korea.
But officials say it is too early to assume Korea will be spared again. A high-pressure system that had firmly blocked typhoons from moving north has broken down. With pressure patterns shifting rapidly, a path toward the Korean Peninsula could open up at any time.
The key variable is the position of the North Pacific High, a large, semipermanent high-pressure system over the Pacific that typically strengthens in summer and steers typhoons along its edge.
Summer typhoons typically travel along the edge of the North Pacific High, so once Saudel passes Okinawa and moves north, how far the high extends will likely determine which way the typhoon goes. The speed of a trough moving in from the north and the extent to which the typhoon develops could also affect its path.
"Since the North Pacific High is still expected to expand and contract while the typhoon moves northwest, we'll need to keep monitoring where it heads after Aug. 25," said KMA forecaster Woo Jin-gyu. "Please continue to check the typhoon updates the agency puts out."
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
