Trump's social media posts could reshape Northeast Asia's security landscape, experts warn

A single social media post from U.S. President Donald Trump was enough to gut a major South Korea-U.S. military exercise — the latest sign that his offhand remarks are reshaping Northeast Asia’s security landscape.

A full review by the JoongAng Ilbo of White House press briefings and Truth Social posts from the start of Trump’s second term in January last year through Sunday found that he had made 24 North Korea-related statements, or an average of 1.4 per month. Six of those statements, or 25 percent, used language that could be read as implicitly acknowledging North Korea's nuclear status rather than simply describing it as a security concern — terms like “nuclear power” used three times and “big nuclear nation,” “nuclear force” and “nuclear weapons” used once each.

On his first day in office, Trump referred to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a “nuclear power.” Last week, he told reporters that Kim has 57 "very powerful nuclear weapons."

By contrast, the outcomes of two South Korea-U.S. summits, three U.S.-Japan summits and one U.S.-China summit have generally reaffirmed North Korea’s complete denuclearization, displaying a gap between Trump’s remarks and the U.S. government’s official position. 

North Korea may be exploiting that gap. At its Ninth Party Congress in February this year, Kim laid out preconditions for resuming talks with Washington: abandoning denuclearization as a topic of negotiation and withdrawing what Pyongyang calls Washington’s hostile policy toward the North.

Looking ahead, North Korea could press for sanctions relief and a permanent halt to the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise and may not stop there; it could also potentially push to reduce the U.S. troop presence in South Korea. Trump has long questioned the cost of stationing U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula, and his putting troop levels on the table would mark a worst-case scenario for South Korea.

An even bigger concern is the possibility that such decisions could be pushed through without consultation with South Korea. Regarding Trump’s directive to scale back combined military exercises on Aug. 16, Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers, “Neither our nor U.S. government officials were aware of the matter in advance.” South Korea’s defense minister also confirmed this point, indicating that Seoul learned about the instruction through Trump’s social media post.

“If a permanent suspension of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise or a reduction of U.S. troops in South Korea comes up for discussion, it would gut the alliance system itself,” said Park Won-gon, a North Korean studies professor at Ewha Womans University.

This could serve as a catalyst that fuels calls within South Korea for greater self-reliance and even independent nuclear armament, which continue to grow within conservative circles. In a joint survey by the JoongAng Ilbo and the East Asia Institute, seven out of 10 respondents, or 69.1 percent, said that they supported South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons.

Some analysts, however, argue that Trump’s remarks are merely a tactic to lure Kim back to the negotiating table, and that the United States has not abandoned its principle of denuclearization.

“At the 2019 Hanoi summit, Trump rejected North Korea’s offer to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear facility, calling it a ‘bad deal,’” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute. “Given that U.S. troops in South Korea increasingly play a role in countering China as well, a complete withdrawal isn’t something that the United States is likely to consider.”

BY LEE YU-JUNG, YOON JI-WON, SHIM SEOK-YONG [[email protected]]