Putin may seek 30,000 more North Korean troops — but at what price?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's claims that Russia is seeking an additional 30,000 troops from North Korea, a request that has raised questions about what Russian President Vladimir Putin may be willing to offer North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in return, with a summit likely on the horizon.

“Russia wants to receive another 30,000 troops from North Korea,” Zelensky wrote on X on Saturday. “Since June, preparations have been underway in Russia’s Voronezh region to receive them. North Korea is also preparing to transfer additional launchers for ballistic missiles to Russia.”

Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang has officially confirmed the claims.

The reported request for more troops comes as North Korea and Russia are believed to be coordinating a summit between their leaders this year. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui visited Russia from July 18 to 20, holding meetings with President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Observers say the trip may have been aimed at coordinating the agenda for Kim's planned visit to Russia and a bilateral summit.

"The issue of an additional troop deployment may have been coordinated during Foreign Minister Choe's visit to Moscow," Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said.

If North Korea does send additional personnel, they could consist not of elite combat units such as the Storm Corps but of civilian construction workers and other reconstruction personnel.

North Korea, however, maintains that it has yet to receive adequate compensation for the earlier deployment of some 14,000 troops and weapons support. That is why some analysts believe Kim would be reluctant to send more than twice that number of troops again before Putin delivers on what Pyongyang considers to be the promised compensation.

"North Korea is dissatisfied because it has not received sufficient compensation," South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers on the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee regarding a North Korea-Russia summit held during China's Victory Day commemorations in September of last year. “President Putin has been trying to appease  Kim."

Under those circumstances, some analysts believe Pyongyang to be reluctant to take the move. 

"It is possible that negotiations over an additional troop deployment are underway, but would North Korea really agree so readily if Russia is once again asking for troops without properly paying what it already owes?" said Rep. Youn Kun-young, a Democratic Party lawmaker on the parliamentary Intelligence Committee, to the JoongAng Ilbo through a call.

In the same vein, some analysts say continued Russian demands for additional troops without providing the cash inflows or transfers of key nuclear and missile technologies that Kim seeks could widen the rift between Pyongyang and Moscow over the longer term. Kim's recent efforts to strengthen ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping are also seen as part of a hedging strategy in case relations with Russia deteriorate.

The greater concern, however, is what Russia may provide in return if an additional troop deployment actually takes place. Any compensation from Moscow could directly undermine security on the Korean Peninsula, as persuading Kim to send tens of thousands more troops would likely require substantial economic or military concessions.

"If another deployment takes place, North Korea is likely to press even harder for transfers of key military technologies, including missile technology, and Russia will be more likely to provide them, which would further undermine security on the Korean Peninsula," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.

BY YOON JI-WON [[email protected]]