Monsoon unlikely to reach Korea before July

This year's monsoon season is unlikely to begin before July, as cold air lingers over Korea, delaying the northward advance of the seasonal rain front.

The stationary front is currently hovering near 30 degrees north latitude, south of Japan, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) on Thursday. Korea is expected to see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for the time being under the influence of cold air in the upper atmosphere and a migratory high-pressure system.

The high-pressure system is likely to keep most of the country dry through the weekend, with little chance of significant rainfall. Daytime temperatures are forecast to remain above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

Similar weather conditions are expected to continue into next week, although changes in atmospheric conditions remain possible depending on the expansion of the North Pacific High and whether tropical depressions develop.

Rain could fall around Jeju Island on Wednesday, but the KMA cautioned that it is too early to conclude that the rainfall will mark the start of the monsoon season.

It remains difficult to predict whether the stationary front will move northward afterward or whether prolonged rainfall will follow.

The average onset date of the monsoon season on Jeju Island is June 19, but this year's start has already been delayed by more than six days. By definition, monsoon season — or jangma in Korean — refers to when a stationary rain front settles over the Korean Peninsula and brings prolonged rainfall.

Since 1973, the monsoon has begun in July on Jeju only twice — on July 5, 1982, and July 2, 2021. Even if the rainy season begins on July 1 this year, it would mark the island's third-latest monsoon onset on record.

July monsoon onsets have also been rare in the southern and central regions, occurring only five and six times, respectively. If this year's rainy season begins in July, it is likely to rank among the latest nationwide monsoon starts on record.

BY JEONG JAE-HONG [[email protected]]