Korea's weather chief apologizes for inaccurate rain forecasts during parliamentary audit
According to an opposition party official at the audit, the critical success index for rainfall forecasts this summer was 0.32, the lowest in the past 10 years.
Korea Meteorological Administration Administrator Lee Mi-seon speaks during a government audit in Yeongdeungpo District, western Seoul, on Oct. 8.YONHAP
Korea’s weather agency chief apologized for getting rainfall forecasts wrong this summer during a parliamentary audit on government bodies on Thursday.
“The critical success index [CSI] for rainfall forecasts this summer was 0.32, the lowest in the past 10 years,” Rep. Kim Wi-sang of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) said. “The figure for June was also [the month’s] lowest in a decade at 0.29.”
The CSI is one of the measures that the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) uses to evaluate rainfall forecasts. A score closer to 1 indicates greater accuracy. Unlike the accuracy rate for whether rain falls, the CSI excludes days with no recorded rain.
Lawmakers also pointed to a major discrepancy between the KMA’s forecast and the reality during heavy rainfall in Geoje, South Gyeongsang, in August.
“A very short-range forecast issued at 12:30 a.m. on Aug. 17 predicted 0.8 millimeters [0.03 inches] of rain between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m., but 116.8 millimeters fell,” Rep. Lee Jong-bae of the PPP said. “Couldn’t people suffer greater damage because they let their guard down after trusting the KMA? How could [the forecast] be this far off?”
The KMA chief apologized for the agency’s shortcomings.
“I take and will not avoid full responsibility for the forecasts,” KMA Administrator Lee Mi-seon said. “I am sorry to the people who suffered because our forecasts were wrong.”
A road in Okpo-dong, Geoje, South Gyeongsang, is flooded on Aug. 17 following torrential rain.YONHAP
Lawmakers also urged the KMA to improve its observation and forecasting systems.
“We are told weather forecasting is difficult because Korea is surrounded by ocean, but even so, we have far too few maritime observation instruments,” Rep. Park Soo-min of the PPP said. “We also have a weather observation vessel, but it is so small that it cannot even sail when the weather turns bad.”
Others argued that the problem goes deeper than equipment.
“Climate change is posing a major challenge to the KMA’s forecasting capabilities,” Rep. Park Jee-hye of the ruling Democratic Party said. “The agency needs more forecasters or a more fundamental solution.”
“There were some shortcomings among forecasters when it came to summer rainfall predictions,” KMA Administrator Lee said. “We are working to produce more quantitative forecasts based on weather models and are continuously reviewing both staffing levels and how we work.”
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
