Korea, U.S. at odds as Opcon transfer talks stall

A U.S. military official said conditions for completing the Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment of a Korean-led combined command have not been met, complicating Seoul's push to transfer wartime operational control (Opcon) as early as next year.

The lack of progress also appears to push back the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), an annual meeting of the two countries' defense chiefs, from early November to late November.

A senior U.S. military official reportedly told former senior Korean government officials that the criteria for assessing the conditions for an Opcon transfer could not remain the same as they were a decade ago during a closed-door meeting last month, military sources said Tuesday. The official made the remarks while emphasizing changes in the battlefield environment, including those brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The official also reportedly said that the scaled-down Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) joint military exercise in August prevented the necessary assessments for the Opcon transfer from being conducted and that efforts were underway to find ways to make up for the missed assessments.

The position stands in direct contrast to that of former Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back and other Korean officials, who said in August that two FOC evaluation items, including a counter-fire operations assessment, had already been completed during the first phase of the UFS exercise.

The U.S. official reportedly emphasized that protecting the Korean people remained the United States' top priority and reiterated Washington's commitment to a conditions-based Opcon transfer.

Such remarks suggest that the U.S. military is not opposed to the Opcon transfer itself, but is emphasizing that the transition must take place without weakening the allies' combined defense posture.

The Korean government has publicly outlined two goals for the Opcon transfer: completing the FOC assessment at the year-end SCM and recommending a target year for the transfer to the presidents of both countries.

Under a three-stage process agreed upon by Seoul and Washington, the allies must verify Initial Operational Capability, FOC and Full Mission Capability (FMC) before the transfer can take place. The assessment covers approximately 130 items under the combined mission essential task list, with 70 to 90 percent of the requirements at each stage needing to be met before proceeding to the next.

Completing the FOC assessment, which is the second stage, would leave only the final FMC assessment. The Korean government has explained that, under the bilateral agreement, the FMC assessment needs to begin at least one year before the target year established upon completion of the FOC assessment. This is why the government has repeatedly emphasized that a target year of 2027 or 2028 is achievable.

President Lee Jae Myung also expressed confidence in the military's readiness during a Future Defense Strategy Committee meeting in May.

"Even if we regained [Opcon] tomorrow, there would be no problem," Lee said during the meeting.

The Defense Ministry has also consistently maintained that there are "no major differences" between Seoul and Washington on the broader framework of the transfer.

However, U.S. objections have now cast uncertainty over whether the allies can even complete the FOC assessment, a crucial step toward the transfer.

Some Korean government officials and observers suspect that the SCM schedule has yet to be finalized because negotiations have failed to produce the tangible progress Seoul is seeking. The two sessions of the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) held twice this year reportedly produced no meaningful progress on the Opcon transfer.

Defense Minister Kang Shin-chul also acknowledged that differences between Seoul and Washington had emerged during the KIDD meeting in September.

"I am in a position where I need to work out the differences," Kang said during a parliamentary audit of the Defense Ministry on Wednesday, referring to the Opcon transfer.

His remarks suggest that he intends to negotiate directly with Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea and the Combined Forces Command, who serves as a key decision-maker and head of the assessment team for the Opcon transfer, in an effort to complete the FOC assessment.

However, a military source who requested anonymity said the disagreement had reached a point where talks between defense authorities alone would be insufficient to resolve it.

"It has already reached a stage where consultations between defense authorities are unlikely to resolve the issue," the source said. "A political decision by both countries is now necessary."

This has fueled speculation that the Korean government could pursue a top-down approach, with President Lee seeking to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump directly at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for late November in Shenzhen, China, before referring the issue back to the two countries' military authorities for further negotiations.

BY LEE YU-JUNG [[email protected]]