Older residents play a version of curling using traditional rubber shoes at a community sports day at Songhae Park in Dalseong County, Daegu, on Sept. 3.NEWS1
Korea is projected to be the oldest country in the world by 2060, when 41 percent of its people are projected to be 65 or older, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report on global aging.
The report, released Monday, also marks a threshold for the world as a whole. Sometime between 2020 and 2025, adults aged 65 and older came to outnumber children aged 5 and under for the first time in recorded history, and the gap is expected to widen.
There were 852 million people aged 65 and older last year, or 10.5 percent of a global population of 8.13 billion, according to "An Aging World: 2025." That share is projected to nearly double to 19.6 percent by 2060, when the group will number about 2 billion. The share of children 5 and under is expected to fall to between 7 and 8 percent.
Falling birthrates are the main driver. As of 2023, more than 71 percent of the world's people lived in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, up from 45 percent in 2013 — a 26 percentage point jump in a decade. Fertility has dropped below replacement in China and India, the two most populous countries, as well as in Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam.
Korea is moving faster than anywhere else. Its share of people 65 and older was 20.3 percent last year, 22nd in the world. Japan led at 29.7 percent. By 2060, Korea is projected to reach 41 percent and take first place, while Japan slips to third.
The oldest group is growing fastest of all. Koreans aged 80 and older made up 4.8 percent of the population last year and are projected to reach 18.3 percent by 2060, which would put Korea third worldwide on that measure behind Monaco at 27.1 percent and Japan at 19.4 percent.
Korea's median age, the point at which half the population is older and half younger, was 46 last year. It is projected to reach 52.8 by 2040 and 59.2 by 2060.
Older people line up for a free meal at Tapgol Park in Jongno District, central Seoul, on Aug. 6.NEWS1
The arithmetic of support shifts with it. Korea's old-age dependency ratio, the number of people 65 and older for every 100 of working age between 15 and 64, was 29.5 last year and is projected to hit 81.6 by 2060. That is about 2.5 times the projected global figure of 32.1, and it works out to roughly 1.2 working-age people for each older adult.
Poverty among the old is the other half of the problem. Korea's elderly poverty rate was 40.5 percent in 2020, the highest among OECD members. The Census Bureau attributed it to the late start of the national pension, thin coverage and low benefit levels, rising life expectancy and early retirement. The OECD has more recently put the rate at 39.7 percent.
Andrew Scott, a professor of economics at London Business School, published research last week with three MIT economists covering 70 years of data. They found that falling birthrates raised rather than lowered output per working-age adult. Employers turned to automation to cover for scarce younger workers.
"You don't see aging regions having worse economic performance," he told the Stanford Center on Longevity.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
